• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.163-173
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• 1997

Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, it is hard to tell a priori which of these techniques will be the most effective to solve a specific problem. It has been suggested that the better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the predictive performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which tries to find the best combination of the results provided by individual techniques. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an object function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applies three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit model and Neural Networks) as base models for the corporate failure prediction. The results of composite predictions are compared with the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods improve the performance of business classification.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.117-142
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• 2010

National territorial policies require a series of dynamic simulations, which would facilitate effectiveness measuring and forecasting works geared towards territorial policies under consideration or implementation. This paper aims at designing an integrated prototype for the proposed territorial policies. After the simulation exercises for the Ochang Industrial Complex(OIC) in Chungbuk Province, this study firstly finds meaningful mismatch phenomena between housing and population increases as the in-migration time lag seems inevitable even after the housing construction is in a mature state. Secondly, the OIC development exerts more significant impact on the number of employees than that of business units. Thirdly, in- and out-migration orders are different during the first and second stages of OIC development. That is, Chungbuk Province records the largest in terms of in-migration volume, followed by the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. Even though Chungbuk Province ranks the top position in the out-migration volume, the rank of the Capital and Non-Capital Regions is reversed: the our-migration volume towards the Non-Capital Region outruns that of the Capital Region.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.201-214
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• 2008

IPTV services, as the convergence service of communication and broadcasting, are regarded as the essential information communication media in the New Economy era by providing the consumers with various services through the collaboration among communications, broadcasting and many of other media service providers. The research starts with recognition that, in the new media era, where communication and broadcasting are converging, there are endless demands for new services and various contents, which are driving forces behind the business model of IPTV. In other words, the research expected that customer satisfaction and purchase intention would be different according to the service quality(contents). It was expected that the difference of the perceived service quality(contents) could cause the difference of the process of adopting new technologies. The study on how consumers are satisfied with services provided, and which factors of the service quality have a more significant effect on consumer satisfaction will provide very valuable information for forecasting future trends in the IPTV market. The research tried to investigate factors which influence on consumer satisfaction and loyalty through an empirical survey with real users of IPTV services. Based on the results, the research suggested effective ways of diffusing IPTV.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.25-52
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to suggest major strategies and necessary new projects for the medium- and long-term development of the Korean Fisheries Outlook Project. To suggest the Korean Fisheries Outlook Center with the above purpose, this paper employs Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis based on surveys obtained by special groups related with the KFOP. The survey is broadly composed of two goals; the medium- and long-term development directions and setting up of new furtherance projects. Each goal has upper and lower strategies respectively. The first goal, the medium- and long-term development directions, has four factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies are composed of accuracy, efficiency, timeliness, and political effectiveness of the fisheries outlook information. In addition, each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For example, accuracy of the fisheries outlook information includes strength of data collection function, strength of satellite photography function, and strength of data analysis function. The second goal, setting up of new furtherance projects, has three factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies consist of accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analyzing function on oversea fisheries information. Each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For instant, accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique has strength of information analysis function covered from production to consumption, strength of satellite information function, and structure of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species. The above upper and lower strategies were analytically drawn out through insightful interviews with special groups such as officials of the government, presidents of the producer and distributor groups, and researchers of the Korea Maritime Institute and other research institutes. As a result of AHP analysis, first, priorities of upper strategies with the medium- and long-term development directions are analyzed as accuracy, timeliness, political effectiveness, and efficiency in order. Also, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as includes strength of data collection function on the fisheries outlook information, delivery of rapid information on outlook products for all people interested, strength of data analysis function on fisheries outlook information, strength of consumption outlook function on fish products, and strength of early warning system for domestic fish products in order. Second, priorities of upper strategies with the setting up of new furtherance projects are analyzed as accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analysis function on oversea fisheries information in order. In addition, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as building up of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species, strength of information analysis function covering all steps from production to consumption, expansion of consumption outlook for consumers, strength of movement analysis function of oversea farming industry, and outlook expansion of farming species.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2019

With the opening of the small power brokerage business market in December 2018, the small power trading market has started in Korea. Operators must submit the day-ahead estimates of power output and receive incentives based on its accuracy. Therefore, the accuracy of power generation forecasts is directly affects profits of the operators. The forecasting process for power generation can be divided into two procedure. The first is to forecast solar irradiation and the second is to transform forecasted solar irradiation into power generation. There are two methods for transformation. One is to simulate with physical model, and another is to use regression model. In this study, we found the best-fit regression model by analyzing hourly data of PV output and solar irradiation data during three years for 242 PV plants in Korea. The best model was not a linear model, but a sigmoidal model and specifically a Gompertz model. The combined linear regression and Gompertz curve was proposed because a the curve has non-zero y-intercept. As the result, R² and RMSE between observed data and the curve was significantly reduced.

• 한국전자거래학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.149-163
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• 2012

물류 시스템은 다양한 프로세스에 걸친 한정된 자원들의 작업을 통해 고객에게 서비스를 제공한다. 이와 같은 복잡한 환경에서 높은 서비스 수준을 유지하기 위해서는 프로세스 진행 상황에 대한 실시간 모니터링과 그를 통한 성과 달성도의 지속적인 관리가 필수적으로 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 컨테이너 터미널을 대상으로 선박 물류 프로세스의 서비스 완료시간을 예측하는 방법론을 제시한다. 이를 위해 먼저 선박에서 컨테이너를 싣고 내리는 프로세스에 영향을 미치는 요인을 파악한다. 그리고, 확인된 요인들 중 영향 정도를 직접적으로 측정하기 어려운 것에 대해 정량적인 값을 추정하는 방안을 개발한다. 서비스 완료 시간에 대한 실시간 예측은 의사결정 나무를 사용한다. 과거 프로세스 진행 이력을 바탕으로 의사결정 나무를 학습시킨 후, 특정 시점에서 실시간 요인의 상태를 이용하여 서비스 완료시간을 예측한다. 컨테이너 터미널 시뮬레이션 모형을 활용하여 본 연구에서 제시하는 방법론을 검증하였다.

• 기술혁신학회지
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.812-841
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• 2006

본 연구는 중소벤처평가지표의 개선을 위해 t-test, 요인분석, 로짓회귀분석을 이용하여 평가지표의 판별력을 분석하였다. 연구결과를 요약하면 하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 중소벤처평가지표의 분류정확도가 93%를 보이고 있어 기존 재무비율을 이용한 선행연구의 예측력과 비슷한 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 통상적으로 중소벤처지원기관의 평가지표는 기술성지표, 사업성지표, 시장성지표로 구성되어 있는데 본 연구의 요인분석 결과 6개의 평가지표로 구성되는 것이 바람직함을 보이고 있다. 셋째, 중소벤처성과에 영향을 미치는 요인들로, 기존 연구에서도 주장된 기업가정신(entrepreneurship)을 나타내는 경영자기술역량, 경영자경영역량 그리고 사업성인 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 이들의 비중(영향정도)는 비슷한 것으로 나타났다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.64-73
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• 2019

The manufacturing companies under Make-To-Order (MTO) production environment face highly variable requirements of the customers. It makes them difficult to establish preemptive production strategy through inventory management and demand forecasting. Therefore, the ability to establish an optimal production schedule that incorporates the various requirements of the customers is emphasized as the key success factor. In this study, we suggest a process of designing the simulation model for establishing production schedule and apply this model to the case of a flat glass processing company. The flat glass manufacturing industry is under MTO production environment. Academic research of flat glass industry is focused on minimizing the waste in the cutting process. In addition, in the practical view, the flat glass manufacturing companies tend to establish the production schedule based on the intuition of production manager and it results in failure of meeting the due date. Based on these findings, the case study aims to present the process of drawing up a production schedule through simulation modeling. The actual data of Korean flat glass processing company were used to make a monthly production schedule. To do this, five scenarios based on dispatching rules are considered and each scenario is evaluated by three key performance indicators for delivery compliance. We used B2MML (Business To Manufacturing Markup Language) schema for integrating manufacturing systems and simulations are carried out by using SIMIO simulation software. The results provide the basis for determining a suitable production schedule from the production manager's perspective.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.045-058
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• 2023

This study aims to analyze the cost of climate change damages to laver and sea mustard aquaculture, which are considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change in Korea. For this purpose, the correlation between aquaculture production and climate factors such as water temperature, salinity, air temperature, and precipitation was estimated using a panel regression model. The SSP scenario was applied to predict the changes in production and damage costs due to changes in future climate factors. As a result of the analysis, laver production is predicted to decrease by 18.0-27.2% in 2050 and 20.6-61.6% in 2100, and damage costs are predicted to increase from 29.7-50.8 billion KRW in 2050 to 35.7-116.1 billion KRW in 2100. Sea mustard production is projected to decrease by 24.5-37.2% in 2050 and 24.0-34.5% in 2100, with similar damage costs of 41.1-61.8 billion KRW and 41.1-58.6 billion KRW, respectively. These damage costs are expected to occur in the short term as damage caused by fishery disasters such as high temperatures, and in the long term as a decrease in production due to changes in aquaculture sites. Therefore, measures such as strengthening the forecasting system to prevent high-temperature damage, developing high-temperature-resistant varieties, and relocating fishing grounds in response to changes in aquaculture sites will be necessary.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.99-107
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• 2015

모든 산업이 ICT 인프라를 기반으로 융합되고 나아가 산업과 문화가 융합되는 스마트융합 환경이 도래함에 따라, ICT 인프라를 시공 및 구축하는 정보통신공사업이 중요하게 평가되고 있다. 이러한 정보통신공사업의 지속적인 성장을 위해서는 기술인력의 공급이 안정적으로 이루어지는 것이 매우 중요하나, 현재까지 이론적으로 체계적인 정보통신공사업 분야의 인력수급차 분석이 수행된 바가 없다. 특히 정부에서도 2014년 12월에 공사업 육성방안 로드맵을 추진하며 중장기 인력수급차 분석에 기반한 인적역량 강화방안을 모색하겠다고 발표하여, 정량적인 인력수급차 분석의 필요성은 더욱 중요해지는 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 정보통신공사업의 인력수급 예측모형을 개발하고, 인력수급차 분석결과를 제시하였다. 분석결과, 2007년도부터 전문대학의 입학자 감소, 구조조정, 학과개편 등의 요인으로 전문대 교육과정에서 배출되는 졸업생이 줄어들어 초과수요상태가 나타나는 것으로 조사되었다. 이에 따라 정보통신공사업 시장의 기술인력 부족현상을 줄이기 위해, 기존인력의 재교육, 정보통신기술인력 양성정책을 지속적으로 유지하고 다양한 정책적 유인을 제공할 필요성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다.