• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian estimation method

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A Comparison of the Reliability Estimation Accuracy between Bayesian Methods and Classical Methods Based on Weibull Distribution (와이블분포 하에서 베이지안 기법과 전통적 기법 간의 신뢰도 추정 정확도 비교)

  • Cho, HyungJun;Lim, JunHyoung;Kim, YongSoo
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.256-262
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    • 2016
  • The Weibull is widely used in reliability analysis, and several studies have attempted to improve estimation of the distribution's parameters. least squares estimation (LSE) or Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are often used to estimate distribution parameters. However, it has been proven that Bayesian methods are more suitable for small sample sizes than LSE and MLE. In this work, the Weibull parameter estimation accuracy of LSE, MLE, and Bayesian method are compared for sample sets with 3 to 30 data points. The Bayesian method was most accurate for sample sizes under 25, and the accuracy of the Bayesian method was similar to LSE and MLE as the sample size increased.

Decision Tree State Tying Modeling Using Parameter Estimation of Bayesian Method (Bayesian 기법의 모수 추정을 이용한 결정트리 상태 공유 모델링)

  • Oh, SangYeob
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2015
  • Recognition model is not defined when you configure a model, Been added to the model after model building awareness, Model a model of the clustering due to lack of recognition models are generated by modeling is causes the degradation of the recognition rate. In order to improve decision tree state tying modeling using parameter estimation of Bayesian method. The parameter estimation method is proposed Bayesian method to navigate through the model from the results of the decision tree based on the tying state according to the maximum probability method to determine the recognition model. According to our experiments on the simulation data generated by adding noise to clean speech, the proposed clustering method error rate reduction of 1.29% compared with baseline model, which is slightly better performance than the existing approach.

Estimation of Defect Clustering Parameter Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Markov Chain Monte Carlo를 이용한 반도체 결함 클러스터링 파라미터의 추정)

  • Ha, Chung-Hun;Chang, Jun-Hyun;Kim, Joon-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2009
  • Negative binomial yield model for semiconductor manufacturing consists of two parameters which are the average number of defects per die and the clustering parameter. Estimating the clustering parameter is quite complex because the parameter has not clear closed form. In this paper, a Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo is proposed to estimate the clustering parameter. To find an appropriate estimation method for the clustering parameter, two typical estimators, the method of moments estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator, and the proposed Bayesian estimator are compared with respect to the mean absolute deviation between the real yield and the estimated yield. Experimental results show that both the proposed Bayesian estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator have excellent performance and the choice of method depends on the purpose of use.

Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of entropy of the inverse Weibull distribution under generalized type I progressive hybrid censoring

  • Lee, Kyeongjun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.469-486
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    • 2020
  • Entropy is an important term in statistical mechanics that was originally defined in the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, we consider the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), maximum product spacings estimation (MPSE) and Bayesian estimation of the entropy of an inverse Weibull distribution (InW) under a generalized type I progressive hybrid censoring scheme (GePH). The MLE and MPSE of the entropy cannot be obtained in closed form; therefore, we propose using the Newton-Raphson algorithm to solve it. Further, the Bayesian estimators for the entropy of InW based on squared error loss function (SqL), precautionary loss function (PrL), general entropy loss function (GeL) and linex loss function (LiL) are derived. In addition, we derive the Lindley's approximate method (LiA) of the Bayesian estimates. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the results among MLE, MPSE, and Bayesian estimators. A real data set based on the GePH is also analyzed for illustrative purposes.

A Comparative Study Of Maximum Likelihood Method With Bayesian Approach In Statistical Parameter Estimation Of Static Systems (정적계통의 통계적 퍼래미터 추정에 있어 최우도법과 Bayes식방법과의 비교연구)

  • 한만춘;최경삼
    • 전기의세계
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 1973
  • The comparative study of maximum likelihood estimation with Bayesian approach was made by statistical & computational methods in center of a priori information of static systems and the effect of a priori information on the accuracy of the estimatiion was also analyzed. Through the numerical computations of some examples by digital computer, we concluded that maximum likelihood method is better than Bayesian estimation except for almost certain a priori informations. The study may therefore contribute in identification problems of dynamical systems connected with a priori informations.

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A Study on the Bayes Estimation Application for Korean Standard-Quality Excellence Index(KS-QEI) (베이즈 추정방식의 품질우수성지수 적용 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Tai Kyoo;Kim, Myung Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.747-756
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the Bayesian estimation methodology for producing 'Korean Standard -Quality Excellence Index' model and prove the effectiveness of the new approach based on survey data by comparing the current index with the new index produced by Bayesian estimation method. Methods: The 'Korean Standard -Quality Excellence Index' was produced through the collected survey data by Bayesian estimation method and comparing the deviation with two results for confirming the effectiveness of suggested application. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that suggested estimator, that is, empirical Bayes estimator improves the effectiveness of the index with regard to reduce the error under specific loss function, which is suggested for checking the goodness of fit. Conclusion: Considering the Bayesian techniques such as empirical Bayes estimator for producing the quality excellence index reduces the error for estimating the parameter of interest and furthermore various Bayesian perspective approaches seems to be meaningful for producing the corresponding index.

On the Bayesian Statistical Inference (베이지안 통계 추론)

  • Lee, Ho-Suk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.06c
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    • pp.263-266
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    • 2007
  • This paper discusses the Bayesian statistical inference. This paper discusses the Bayesian inference, MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) integration, MCMC method, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Gibbs sampling, Maximum likelihood estimation, Expectation Maximization algorithm, missing data processing, and BMA (Bayesian Model Averaging). The Bayesian statistical inference is used to process a large amount of data in the areas of biology, medicine, bioengineering, science and engineering, and general data analysis and processing, and provides the important method to draw the optimal inference result. Lastly, this paper discusses the method of principal component analysis. The PCA method is also used for data analysis and inference.

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Direction of Arrival Estimation for Desired Target to Remove Interference and Noise using MUSIC Algorithm and Bayesian Method (베이즈 방법과 뮤직 알고리즘을 이용한 간섭과 잡음제거를 위한 원하는 목표물의 도래방향 추정)

  • Lee, Kwan-Hyeong;Kang, Kyoung-Sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.400-404
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we study for direction of arrival MUSIC spatial spectrum algorithm in order to desired signal estimation in spatial. Proposal MUSIC spatial spectrum algorithm in paper use model error and Bayesian method to estimation on correct target position. Receiver array response vector using adaptive array antenna use Bayesian method, and target position estimate to update weight value with model error method. Target's signal estimation of desired direction of arrival in this paper apply weight value of signal covariance matrix for array response vector after removing incident signal interference and noise, respectively. Though simulation, we analyze to compare proposed method with general method.

Bayesian in-situ parameter estimation of metallic plates using piezoelectric transducers

  • Asadi, Sina;Shamshirsaz, Mahnaz;Vaghasloo, Younes A.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.735-751
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    • 2020
  • Identification of structure parameters is crucial in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) context for activities such as model validation, damage assessment and signal processing of structure response. In this paper, guided waves generated by piezoelectric transducers are used for in-situ and non-destructive structural parameter estimation based on Bayesian approach. As Bayesian approach needs iterative process, which is computationally expensive, this paper proposes a method in which an analytical model is selected and developed in order to decrease computational time and complexity of modeling. An experimental set-up is implemented to estimate three target elastic and geometrical parameters: Young's modulus, Poisson ratio and thickness of aluminum and steel plates. Experimental and simulated data are combined in a Bayesian framework for parameter identification. A significant accuracy is achieved regarding estimation of target parameters with maximum error of 8, 11 and 17 percent respectively. Moreover, the limitation of analytical model concerning boundary reflections is addressed and managed experimentally. Pulse excitation is selected as it can excite the structure in a wide frequency range contrary to conventional tone burst excitation. The results show that the proposed non-destructive method can be used in service for estimation of material and geometrical properties of structure in industrial applications.

Online estimation of noise parameters for Kalman filter

  • Yuen, Ka-Veng;Liang, Peng-Fei;Kuok, Sin-Chi
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.361-381
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    • 2013
  • A Bayesian probabilistic method is proposed for online estimation of the process noise and measurement noise parameters for Kalman filter. Kalman filter is a well-known recursive algorithm for state estimation of dynamical systems. In this algorithm, it is required to prescribe the covariance matrices of the process noise and measurement noise. However, inappropriate choice of these covariance matrices substantially deteriorates the performance of the Kalman filter. In this paper, a probabilistic method is proposed for online estimation of the noise parameters which govern the noise covariance matrices. The proposed Bayesian method not only estimates the optimal noise parameters but also quantifies the associated estimation uncertainty in an online manner. By utilizing the estimated noise parameters, reliable state estimation can be accomplished. Moreover, the proposed method does not assume any stationarity condition of the process noise and/or measurement noise. By removing the stationarity constraint, the proposed method enhances the applicability of the state estimation algorithm for nonstationary circumstances generally encountered in practice. To illustrate the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method, examples using a fifty-story building with different stationarity scenarios of the process noise and measurement noise are presented.