• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.358-366
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to analyze the monthly and seasonal PM10 data using the Autoregressive Error (ARE) model at the southern part of the Gyeonggi-Do, Pyeongtaek monitoring site in Korea. In the ARE model, six meteorological variables and four pollution variables are used as the explanatory variables. The six meteorological variables are daily maximum temperature, wind speed, amount of cloud, relative humidity, rainfall, and global radiation. The four air pollution variables are sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$), nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone ($O_3$). The result shows that monthly ARE models explained about 17~49% of the PM10 concentration. However, the ARE model could be improved if we add the more explanatory variables in the model.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.37-47
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• 2006

Recently, as a result of the growing interest in modeling stationary processes with discrete marginal distributions, several models for integer valued time series have been proposed in the literature. One of these models is the integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models. However, when modeling with integer-valued autoregressive processes, the distributional properties of forecasts have been not yet discovered due to the difficulty in handling the Steutal Van Ham thinning operator 'o' (Steutal and van Ham, 1979). In this study, we derive the mean squared error of h-step-ahead prediction from a Poisson INAR(1) process, reflecting the effect of the variability of parameter estimates in the prediction mean squared error.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.461-472
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• 2024

We propose a network traffic prediction model based on linear and nonlinear model combination. Network traffic is modeled by an autoregressive moving average model, and the error between the measured and predicted network traffic values is obtained. Then, an echo state network is used to fit the prediction error with nonlinear components. In addition, an improved slime mold algorithm is proposed for reservoir parameter optimization of the echo state network, further improving the regression performance. The predictions of the linear (autoregressive moving average) and nonlinear (echo state network) models are added to obtain the final prediction. Compared with other prediction models, test results on two network traffic datasets from mobile and fixed networks show that the proposed prediction model has a smaller error and difference measures. In addition, the coefficient of determination and index of agreement is close to 1, indicating a better data fitting performance. Although the proposed prediction model has a slight increase in time complexity for training and prediction compared with some models, it shows practical applicability.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.149-157
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• 2004

The stationarity is one of the most important properties of a time series. We propose robust sign tests for seasonal autoregressive processes to determine whether or not a time series is stationary. The proposed tests are robust to the outliers and the heteroscedastic errors, and they have an exact binomial null distribution regardless of the period of seasonality and types of median adjustments. A Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the sign test is locally more powerful than the tests based on ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) for heavy-tailed and/or heteroscedastic error distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.281-286
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• 2003

The stationarity is one of the most important properties of a time series. We propose robust sign tests for seasonal autoregressive process to determine whether or not a time series is stationary. The tests have an exact binomial null distribution and are robust to the outliers and the heteroscedastic errors. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that the sign test is locally more powerful than the OLSE-based tests for heavy-tailed and/or heteroscedastic error distributions.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.257-265
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• 1996

We consider nonstationary autoregressive autoregressive process with infinite variance of error. In the case of infinite cariance, the limiting distribution of the estimated coefficient is different from that under the finite cariance assumption. In this paper we show that the bootstrap method can be used to approximate the distribution of ordinary least squares estimator of the coefficient in the first order random walk process with infinite variance through some empirical studies and we suggest a test procedure based on bootstrap method for the unit root test.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.189-195
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• 1998

In this paper, we are concerned with the problem of testing the randomness of the coefficients in a first order autoregressive model. A consistent test based on prediction error is suggested. It is shown that under the null hypothesis, the test statistic is asymptotically normal.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.185-195
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• 2012

This paper focused on forecasting a short-term production of oysters, which have been farmed in Korea, with distinct periodicity of production by year, and different production level by month. To forecast a short-term oyster production, this paper uses monthly data (260 observations) from January 1990 to August 2011, and also adopts several econometrics methods, such as Multiple Regression Analysis Model (MRAM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As a result, first, the amount of short-term oyster production forecasted by the multiple regression analysis model was 1,337 ton with prediction error of 246 ton. Secondly, the amount of oyster production of the SARIMA I and II models was forecasted as 12,423 ton and 12,442 ton with prediction error of 11,404 ton and 11,423 ton, respectively. Thirdly, the amount of oyster production based on the VECM was estimated as 10,425 ton with prediction errors of 9,406 ton. In conclusion, based on Theil inequality coefficient criterion, short-term prediction of oyster by the VECM exhibited a better fit than ones by the SARIMA I and II models and Multiple Regression Analysis Model.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.41 no.9
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• pp.1051-1059
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• 1992

In this paper, two general methods using time-series analysis in the functional separation of the myoelectric signal of human arm movements are developed. Autocorrelation, covariance method and sequential least squares algorithm were used to determine the model parameters and the order of signal model to describe six arm movement patterns` the forearm flexion and extension, the wrist pronation and supination, rotation-in and rotation-out. The confidence interval to classify the functions of arm movement was defined by the mean and standard deviation of total squared error. With the error signals of autoregressive(AR) model, the result showed that the highest success rate was obtained in the case of 4th order, and success rate was decreased with increase of order. Autocorrelation was the method of choice for better success rate. This technique might be applied to biomedical and rehabilitation engineering.