• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.44 no.1
• /
• pp.44-52
• /
• 2020

More accurate forecasting of port cargo in the global long-term recession is critical for the implementation of port policy. In this study, the Busan Port container volume (export cargo and transshipment cargo) was estimated using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the vector error correction (VEC) model considering the causal relationship between the economic scale (GDP) of Korea, China, and the U.S. as well as ARIMA, a single volume model. The measurement data was the monthly volume of container shipments at the Busan port J anuary 2014-August 2019. According to the analysis, the time series of import and export volume was estimated by VAR because it was relatively stable, and transshipment cargo was non-stationary, but it has cointegration relationship (long-term equilibrium) with economic scale, interest rate, and economic fluctuation, so estimated by the VEC model. The estimation results show that ARIMA is superior in the stationary time-series data (local cargo) and transshipment cargo with a trend are more predictable in estimating by the multivariate model, the VEC model. Import-export cargo, in particular, is closely related to the size of our country's economy, and transshipment cargo is closely related to the size of the Chinese and American economies. It also suggests a strategy to increase transshipment cargo as the size of China's economy appears to be closer than that of the U.S.

• Strategy21
• /
• s.46
• /
• pp.239-276
• /
• 2020

The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.179-184
• /
• 2003

In order to mitigate the overcapacity of Busan port, Busan new port has been developed as transshipment port which is capable of handling 8,000 TEU containership. Generally, design of transshipment port has to reflect the capacity of feeder because both mother vessels and feeders enter the planned port at the same time. However, the existing plan of Busan new port capacity needs to be reexamined since the adopted capacity of each berth at new port, 300,000 TEU, does not seem to be enough to handle both mother vessels and feeders. Therefore, in this study we calculated the required number of berth and berth length by considering cargo handling capacity in terms of the ship size and this study makes some implications in relation with the terminal development plan.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.23-45
• /
• 2013

This paper aims to identify the problems of incentives and find a solution to them by empirically analyzing the port incentives and the development of cargo volume. The current method of paying performance incentives and cargo-increase incentives makes it is possible for shipping companies to get the maximum incentives just by regulating cargo volumes without increasing them. Since the processing volume of transshipment cargo of the Busan port is over the volume eligible for the maximum incentive determined by the tie-up of shipping companies, the transshipment cargo can decrease. The incentive of the Busan port based on the cargo record and increase does not affect the increase of transshipment cargo, only to suffer a loss, and thus a new incentive system is needed that does not allow shipping companies to regulate cargo volumes. Based on the result of this study, We have to apply the even-handed incentive rule which pays the incentive for the cargo volume of the pertinent year with the unit price per 1 TEU to avoid the chicken game among the ports.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.42 no.6
• /
• pp.507-517
• /
• 2018

The probability of T/S cargo volume to decrease is the most notable problem associated with inappropriate mix of terminal operators in Busan port. Other problems include, the deterioration of the national carriers' competitiveness from non-operation of own terminal, excessively high proportion of financial operators in the engagement of operation which may result in their passiveness in timely investment, additional cost burden to carriers' in the handling inter-terminal T/S cargo transportation and inefficiency in terminal operation by the multiplicity of operators proved to be same recognized as so through the analysis. Therefore, in order to provide solutions for the problems and to strengthen Busan port's competitiveness, this research suggests the restructuring of operators mix as follows. To achieve sustainable growth of T/S cargo, global carriers' participation in terminal operation should be of utmost priority. To enhance the operational efficiency, the operators should be integrated. Similarly, the integration of operators will play a key role in verifying that national carriers' own terminal operation is an important factor in raising its competence. Finally, BPA's active engagement in the entire operation of port is also critical in public-oriented operation of the port. Whereas in the interactive analysis by taking the merits of Busan port into consideraion, global carrier's participation in operation, integration of operators and BPA's engagement in operation proved to contribute to the increase of T/S cargo and strengthening of operational efficiencies of Busan port.

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.79-98
• /
• 2011

The volume of the world's container transportation has been increasing. To serve this transportation need, the size of the container carrier is getting larger. The global ports are required to deepen the waterways as well as to prepare infrastructure to serve these super-size container carriers. However, few ports around the world could meet the requirements. To solve these difficulties, the concept of the Mobile Harbor has been developed. An onboard Automatic Storage and Retrieval System(AS/RS) has been proposed for the B1 type Mobile Harbor to maximize the container throughput within the limited space of the Mobile Harbor. A scenario of operations and freight movements of the B1 type Mobile Harbor is prepared and the storage size of the B1 type Mobile Harbor through the computer simulation is estimated. The size of the Mobile Harbor and the size of the AS/RS has also been estimated. The optimized size of the Mobile Harbor could be proposed.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.143-164
• /
• 2010

Japanese government has instituted and carried out Super-core Ports Policy to improve their operating efficiencies of international container ports from 2004. Despite of diverse institutional and administrative supports within this policy, this paper has assessed that they couldn't accomplished goals at the end of 2009 when the policy ended. In short, Japanese Super-core ports have explicitly lost the competitiveness for functioning as a hub-port in the East Asia region. We could find some defaults in the policy i.e. some limits of the private terminal operating units, inefficiencies in teaming between ports within Super-core port, lacking with system for collecting cargoes. In 2010, Japan is going to reinforce International Strategic Container Port Policy following Super-core Ports Policy. With this policy, they ought to prepare for the last leap on the basis of selection and concentration rules in international port. This new policy is particularly focused on recapturing their T/S cargo via Busan port. Regarding these changes, Busan port needs to prepare counter measurements for preserving Japanese T/S cargo firmly.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2019.05a
• /
• pp.135-137
• /
• 2019

In recent years, the need for ship-to-ship has emerged around the world as the volume of tanker carriers increases. In the case of STS mooring, a safety review should be carried out on other standards since the characteristics are different from the mooring at a typical wharf. However, there is no separate standard about STS in Korea. Therefore, in this study, STS mooring simulation and sensitivity analysis were performed using OPTIMOOR program, a commercial numerical analysis program, to identify STS mooring characteristics. The target sea area is modeled at D2 anchorage of Yeosu Port in Korea, and modeling of the target ship is selected as the case of VLCC-VLCC. Based on this, we tried to establish the standard for STS mooring safety evaluation. Numerical simulation results show that the STS mooring changes depending on the ship load condition, weather condition(wave period and wave height), encounter angle and pre-tension of mooring line. In addition, a risk matrix was created to set the safe external force range in the sea area. It is expected that the mooring characteristics of the STS can be grasped by this result and contribute to the revision of the mooring safety assessment standard.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.28 no.6
• /
• pp.133-146
• /
• 2010

The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2004.11a
• /
• pp.127-132
• /
• 2004

Most q the domestic container terminals are inferior to throughput q container. The reason why they have the difference between the handling capacity q planed quay and its real. By putting into quay handling equipment, the productivity of quay can be improved, waiting rate q the ship can be lowed. This paper suggests more resonable terminal construction, throughout comparing with previous construction way, improved handling capacity and the economical efficiency of equipment costs, labor costs, construction costs, operation costs on change of terminal size by adding the equipment.