• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 밀도함수

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A New Coefficient for Three Dimensional Quantification of Rock Joint Roughness (암석 절리면 거칠기의 새로운 3차원 정량화 계수)

  • Park, Jung-Wook;Lee, Yong-Ki;Song, Jae-Joon;Choi, Byung-Hee
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.106-119
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    • 2012
  • Roughness of rock joint has generally been characterized based upon geometrical aspects of a two-dimensional surface profile. The appropriate description of joint roughness, however, should consider the features of roughness mobilization at contact areas under normal and shear loads. In this study, direct shear tests were conducted on the replicas of tensile fractured gneiss joints and the influence of the shear direction on the shear behavior and effective roughness was examined. In this procedure, a joint surface was represented as a group of triangular planes, and the steepness of each plane was characterized using the concepts of the active and inactive micro-slope angles. The contact areas at peak strength which were estimated by a numerical method showed that the locations of the contact areas were mainly dependent on the distribution of the micro-slope angle and the shear behavior of joint was dominated by only the fractions with active micro-slope angles. Therefore, a three-dimensional coefficient for the quantification of rock joint roughness is proposed based on the distribution of active micro-slope angle: active roughness coefficient, $C_r$. Comparison of the active roughness coefficient and the peak shear strength obtained from the experiment suggests that the active roughness coefficient is the effective parameter to quantify the surface roughness and estimate the shear behavior of rock joint.

A Study on Optimal Stage Gauge Network Considering Correlation of Individual Stage Gauge Station (관측소간의 상관관계를 고려한 수위관측망 최적화 연구)

  • Joo, Hong jun;Kim, Duck hwan;Kim, Jung wook;Choi, Chang hyun;Han, Dae gun;Lee, Ji ho;Kim, Hung soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.404-412
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    • 2016
  • This paper not only aims to establish a plan to acquire the water stage data in a constant and proper manner by using limited manpower and costs, but also establishes the fundamental technology for acquiring the water level observation data or the stage data. For this, this paper focuses on how to acquire the stage data, in a uniform manner, that can represent each basin by developing the technology for establishing the optimal observational network. For that, this paper identifies the current status of the stage gauge stations installed in the ChungJu dam including wetland basin mainly along the national rivers. Then, thus obtained factors are used to develop the representative unit hydrograph. After that, the data are converted into the probability density function. Then, the stations are calculated information transfer amount. As a last step, we establish the optimized stage gauge network by the location of the stage station and space impact that takes into account for the combinations of the number of the stations. In other words, we consider the combination of the stage gauge station with information transfer amount and spatial correlation analysis for estimation.

A Study on the Difference of Rainfall Intensity According to the Omission of Short-Term (20, 30, 40, 50 Minutes) Rainfall Data in Inducing I-D-F Curves (I-D-F곡선 유도 시 짧은 지속기간(20분, 30분, 40분, 50분) 강우자료 누락에 따른 강우강도 차이 고찰)

  • Lee, Hee Chang;Seong, Kee Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2020
  • I-D-F curves were induced by Box-Cox transformation using rainfall data from five major cities in Korea: Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, and Gwangju, as well as from Sancheong (South Gyeongsang province) and Yeongcheon (North Gyeongsang province) stations. The practicality of the Box-Cox transformation is more scalable than the traditional method of frequency analysis in terms of applicability because it is available even if the analysis data are insufficient to perform general frequency analysis and do not produce an appropriate probability density function. For the case in which rainfall data for the entire period (10-1440 minutes) and short-term period (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes) at the foregoing 7 stations are omitted, there was a relative error of -23.0 % to 14.7 % at a duration of 10 to 60 minutes below the 100-year frequency. Accordingly, rainfall analysis requires inducing I-D-F curves, including for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), and if rainfall data are omitted for the short term (20, 30, 40, 50 minutes), it is necessary to increase the existing margin rate depending on the point in order to ensure the safe design of small-scale hydraulic structures.

Evaluation of Droughts in Seoul Using Two-Dimensional Drought Frequency Analysis (이차원 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 서울지역의 가뭄 평가)

  • Yeon, Je-Mun;Byun, Sung-Ho;Lee, Jung-Kyu;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.335-343
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    • 2007
  • Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

Improvement of the PFCM(Possibilistic Fuzzy C-Means) Clustering Method (PFCM 클러스터링 기법의 개선)

  • Heo, Gyeong-Yong;Choe, Se-Woon;Woo, Young-Woon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.177-185
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    • 2009
  • Cluster analysis or clustering is a kind of unsupervised learning method in which a set of data points is divided into a given number of homogeneous groups. Fuzzy clustering method, one of the most popular clustering method, allows a point to belong to all the clusters with different degrees, so produces more intuitive and natural clusters than hard clustering method does. Even more some of fuzzy clustering variants have noise-immunity. In this paper, we improved the Possibilistic Fuzzy C-Means (PFCM), which generates a membership matrix as well as a typicality matrix, using Gath-Geva (GG) method. The proposed method has a focus on the boundaries of clusters, which is different from most of the other methods having a focus on the centers of clusters. The generated membership values are suitable for the classification-type applications. As the typicality values generated from the algorithm have a similar distribution with the values of density function of Gaussian distribution, it is useful for Gaussian-type density estimation. Even more GG method can handle the clusters having different numbers of data points, which the other well-known method by Gustafson and Kessel can not. All of these points are obvious in the experimental results.

A Study on the Constructing Discrete Fracture Network in Fractured-Porous Medium with Rectangular Grid (사각 격자를 이용한 단열-다공암반내 분리 단열망 구축기법에 대한 연구)

  • Han, Ji-Woong;Hwang, Yong-Soo;Kang, Chul-Hyung
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2006
  • For the accurate safety assessment of potential radioactive waste disposal site which is located in the crystalline rock it is important to simulate the mass transportation through engineered and natural barrier system precisely, characterized by porous and fractured media respectively. In this work the methods to construct discrete fracture network for the analysis of flow and mass transport through fractured-porous medium are described. The probability density function is adopted in generating fracture properties for the realistic representation of real fractured rock. In order to investigate the intersection between a porous and a fractured medium described by a 2 dimensional rectangular and a cuboid grid respectively, an additional imaginary fracture is adopted at the face of a porous medium intersected by a fracture. In order to construct large scale flow paths an effective method to find interconnected fractures and algorithms of swift detecting connectivities between fractures or porous medium and fractures are proposed. These methods are expected to contribute to the development of numerical program for the simulation of radioactive nuclide transport through fractured-porous medium from radioactive waste disposal site.

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Analytical Determination of Optimal Transit Stop Spacing (최적 정류장 간격의 해석적 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Sik;Go, Seung-Yeong;Lee, Cheong-Won;Kim, Jeom-San
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2007
  • Determining stop spacing is a very important process in transit system planning. This study is involved in an analytical approach to decide the transit stop spacing. Transit stop spacing should be longer as 1) user access speed, 2) user travel time, and 3) dwell time increase, and shorter as 1) passengers (boardings and alightings) and 2) headway increase. In this study, a methodology is proposed to determine transit stop spacing to minimize total cost (user cost plus operator cost) with irregular passenger distribution (boardings and alightings) Without considering in-vehicle passengers, the transit stop spacing should be shorter in the concentrated sections of the passenger distribution than in others to minimize total cost. Through the conceptual analysis, it is verified that the transit stop spacing could be longer as the in-vehicle passengers increase in certain sections. This study proposes a simple practical method to determine transit stop spacing and locations instead of a dynamic programming method which generally includes a complex and difficult calculation. If the space axis is changed to a time axis. the methodology of this study could be expanded to analyze a solution for the transit service (or headway) schedule problem.

Quantification of Directional Properties of Channel Network and Hill Slope (하천망과 사면의 방향성 정량화)

  • Park, Changyeol;Yoo, Chulsang
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.211-211
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    • 2011
  • 지형은 강우에 의한 유역 유출응답을 결정하는 중요한 인자이다. 따라서 유역의 지형형태학적 인자를 수문해석에 이용하기 위한 시도는 긴 역사를 갖는다(Rodriguez-Itube and Valdes, 1979). 지형을 구성하는 대표적인 요소로 하천망과 사면을 들 수 있다. 당연히 이들이 어떤 방식으로 결합되는지에 따라 유출특성의 차이가 발생하게 된다(Zevenbergen and Thorne, 1987; Brierley and Fryirs, 2005). 이에 본 연구에서는 하천유역에서 사면과 하천망의 방향적 특성을 정량화하고, 그 둘 사이의 관계를 살펴보고자 한다. 만일 사면의 방향성과 하천의 방향성이 일정한 관계를 가지고 정량화될 수 있다면, 이러한 특성은 보다 간단히 강우-유출 모형에 고려될 수 있을 것이다. 일례로 확률밀도함수 형태로 제시되는 사면과 하천 방향성을 GIUH 이론에 근거하여 재해석할 수 있다. 궁극적으로는 호우 방향성에 의한 유출응답의 차이를 파악할 수 있게 된다. 본 연구에서는 내성천 유역을 대상으로 하였으며, 대상유역의 수치지형도를 수집하여 DEM을 구축하였다. 하천망 추출을 위해 ArcGIS의 Hydro Tool을 이용하였다. 이들 하천망의 방향성은 von Mises 분포에 적용하여 정량화하였으며, 이를 통해 하천유역에서 하천망의 방향적 특성을 살펴보았다. 추가로 하천망과 사면의 방향적 구조를 확인함으로써 이들 특성이 강우-유출 모형에 유연하게 고려될 수 있도록 하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. (1) 본 연구에서 고려한 von Mises 분포는 하천망의 방향적 특성을 적절히 표현할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 방위 기준으로 정리한 하천망의 방향성은 하나의 mode 특성이 뚜렷하고, 하천 합류점 하천을 기준으로 정리할 경우에는 두 개의 mode 특성이 뚜렷해짐을 알 수 있었다. (2) 하천망의 방향성은 사면의 방향성과 뚜렷한 관계를 갖는 것을 알 수 있었다. 하천망과 사면의 방향적 결합 구조는 유역의 특성을 보다 현실적으로 묘사할 수 있고, 이들 관계를 가정하고 하천망의 방향성이 정량화된다면, 강우-유출 모형에 이들 특성이 쉽게 반영될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. (3) 하천망의 방향성은 고차 하천일수록 뚜렷한 mode 특성을 나타냄을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 고차 하천일수록 그 방향성이 한반도의 주구조선과 잘 일치하는 것으로 기존 연구성과와도 일치하는 것이다. (4) 하천망의 주방향은 하천연장에 대한 영향을 크게 받음을 알 수 있었다. 이는 대상 하천유역의 유역응답에서 하천유출이 사면유출보다 상대적으로 큰 영향력을 갖기 때문이다. 강우-유출 모형에 하천망 방향성을 고려하기 위해서도 하천연장을 고려하여 이들 방향성을 정량화하는 것이 호우 방향에 보다 뚜렷한 유출반응 특성을 나타낼 것으로 보인다. (5) 본 연구에서 고려한 하천망의 방향성 정량화 방안을 이용할 경우 이들 결과는 유출모형에 고려될 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 유출응답 특성을 정량적으로 파악하는데 이용될 수 있다. 방위 기준으로 정리한 하천망 방향성은 실제 유역에 대한 유출모형에 적용이 가능하며, 하천 합류점을 기준으로 정리한 결과는 호우의 방향성에 대한 유출응답의 반응을 정량적으로 살펴보는데 이용될 수 있다.

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A Short-Term Traffic Information Prediction Model Using Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 단기 교통정보 예측모델)

  • Yu, Young-Jung;Cho, Mi-Gyung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.765-773
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    • 2009
  • Currently Telematics traffic information services have been various because we can collect real-time traffic information through Intelligent Transport System. In this paper, we proposed and implemented a short-term traffic information prediction model for giving to guarantee the traffic information with high quality in the near future. A Short-term prediction model is for forecasting traffic flows of each segment in the near future. Our prediction model gives an average speed on the each segment from 5 minutes later to 60 minutes later. We designed a Bayesian network for each segment with some casual nodes which makes an impact to the road situation in the future and found out its joint probability density function on the supposition of GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) using EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm with training real-time traffic data. To validate the precision of our prediction model we had conducted various experiments with real-time traffic data and computed RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between a real speed and its prediction speed. As the result, our model gave 4.5, 4.8, 5.2 as an average value of RMSE about 10, 30, 60 minutes later, respectively.

Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis (정확한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 아카이케 정보척도 기반 일반화파레토 분포의 임계점 추정)

  • Kang, Seunghoon;Lim, Woochul;Cho, Su-Gil;Park, Sanghyun;Lee, Minuk;Choi, Jong-Su;Hong, Sup;Lee, Tae Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2015
  • In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.