• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 1997

The conventional methods of container forecasting is done through regression methods based on GNP growth trends and by other forecasting methods proposed by several authors. However these efforts prove to be inadequate with visible weakness and a more reasonable approach need to be determined. The succeeding sections elaborate the methodology and approach adopted. The results are then compared through a case study involving the forecast figures derived by the Pusan Port Authority and the values obtained by MRCS model introduced in this paper.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.131-146
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to predict the railway cargo volume on Busan new-port and north-port, in order to revitalize railway transport. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 presents the description of the objective and methods on this study. Section 2 presents the status of Railway Cargo volumes and Construction plan of railway facilities in Busan New port. Section 3 presents the Forecast Railway Cargo volume using a volume ratio, actual volume records and another predicted datas. Section 4 summarizes our conclusions and further research topics. Especially, korea faces enforcement of green Logistics policy. Modal shift to trail freight transportation is one of ways, but there are no more detail plans. so it need that a cooperation system in government department, a indirect subside policy shift to rail freight transportation from trucking for revitalization of Railway Freight transportation.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.159-175
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between trading volume of freight and industrial growth in Korea ports, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model, Hsiao(1981) method and variance decomposition. The results indicate that the extent of causality between trading volume of freight and industrial growth is strong in order of Incheon port, Busan port, Gwang Yang port, Ulsan port. We can infer policy suggestions as follows; The port policy of government must be focused on re-adjusting investment among Korea ports and raising competitive power of Korea ports

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.243-245
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• 2015

항만간의 물동량 확보 경쟁은 국외 항만간 뿐만 아니라 국내 항만간에도 치열하게 이루어지고 있다. 이와 같은 상황에서 항만 물동량 확보를 위한 경쟁력 강화의 방안 중 하나로 O-D 분석(Origin-Destination, 기종점분석)을 통한 교역구조와 교역품목 분석을 고려 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 최근 10년간 국내 주요 4대 항만에 대한 전체 국내외 교역구조와 지역과 항만별 교역품목 분석하여 항만 경쟁력 강화를 위한 방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 연구의 결과는 국내 주요 항만은 국내 지역과 국외 지역, 항만별 특색을 가진 교역 구조를 나타냈으며, 교역품목에서도 지역별, 항만별 특색을 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 항만 물동량 확보를 위한 마케팅 대상 지역과 품목에 대해 활용이 가능할 것이다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.57-77
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• 2008

The aim of this paper is to make projection of the demand for export loaded container throughput originating at Incheon port in Korea over the period in question. Systematic analysis is used as a forecasting method instead of quantitative analysis. First of all, the method explores coincident indicators which may reflect the square measure of neighboring industrial complexes which originate/destinate general cargo in export traffic trends. It is noted that in terms of the export loaded container throughput, per unit production scale is intermediated transforming from square measure of production facilities to freight weight in Korea. Consequently, the future progress of the volume can be anticipated relying on the development schemes for developing square measure out of the total square of the industrial complexes. Thus, moving-into percentage of the industrial complexes, percentage of business categories, percentage of capacity and percentage of passing through via Incheon port are adopted and the future traffic demand is projected taking advantage of them.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.25-39
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• 2023

As the scope of supply chains expands globally, unpredictable risks continue to arise. The occurrence of these supply chain risks affects port cargo throughput and hinders port operation. In order to examine the impact of global supply chain risks on port container throughput, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the impact of variables such as the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), Industrial Production Index, and Retail Sales Index on port traffic using the vector autoregressive(VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, the rise in GSCPI causes a short-term decrease in the throughput of Busan Port, but after a certain point, it acts as a factor increasing the throughput and affects it in the form of a wave. In addition, the industrial production index and the retail sales index were found to have no statistically significant effect on the throughput of Busan Port. In the case of SCFI, the effect was almost similar to that of GSCPI. The results of this study reveal how risks affect port cargo throughput in a situation where supply chain risks are gradually increasing, providing many implications for establishing port operation policies for future supply chain risks.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.137-154
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• 2020

In this study, we analyze the performance of five major port distriparks and present a development plan. The analysis groups the performance into three categories: revitalization of companies in port distriparks, contribution to the port volume, and contribution to the national economy. The key parameters examined in detail include the ratio of hinterland volume to port volume (container and total cargo), port volume growth contribution rate, and job creation. Our results indicate that Gwangyang and Ulsan Ports showed steady growth for all the indicators analyzed, while Gwangyang Port was the only one among the five ports to display consistent steady growth. The results suggest that to achieve consistent growth, high value-added and specialized port distriparks based on the local economy should be established.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Forecasting the daily volume of container is important in many aspects of port operation. In this article, we utilized a machine-learning algorithm based on decision tree to predict future container throughput of Busan port. Accurate volume forecasting improves operational efficiency and service levels by reducing costs and shipowner latency. We showed that our method is capable of accurately and reliably predicting container throughput in short-term(days). Forecasting accuracy was improved by more than 22% over time series methods(ARIMA). We also demonstrated that the current method is assumption-free and not prone to human bias. We expect that such method could be useful in a broad range of fields.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.111-125
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• 2012

This study investigates the behavioral characteristic difference of the container volumes of three ports-Gwangyang, Incheon, and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin. All series span the period January 2003 to December 2011. I first test whether the series are stationary or not. I can reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in each of the level variables and of a unit root for the residuals from the cointegration at the 5 percent significance level. I hitherto make use of error-correction model and find that Gwangyang port is the slowest in adjusting the short-run disequilibrium, whereas the adjustment speed of Incheon is much faster than that of Gwangyang. The impulse response functions indicate that container volumes increase only a little to the negative shocks in exchange rate, while they respond positively to the shocks in the business activity in a great magnitude and decay very slowly to its pre-shock level. meaning that the shocks last very long. The accumulative response to the exchange rate increase of 20 won per dollar and the 5 point industrial production increase is the smallest in Gwangyang, no more than a half of that of two ports. The intervention-ARIMA models also forecast that Gwangyang port will have much lower growth rate than Incheon and Pyeongtaek-Dangjin port in trading volumes.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.23-45
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• 2013

This paper aims to identify the problems of incentives and find a solution to them by empirically analyzing the port incentives and the development of cargo volume. The current method of paying performance incentives and cargo-increase incentives makes it is possible for shipping companies to get the maximum incentives just by regulating cargo volumes without increasing them. Since the processing volume of transshipment cargo of the Busan port is over the volume eligible for the maximum incentive determined by the tie-up of shipping companies, the transshipment cargo can decrease. The incentive of the Busan port based on the cargo record and increase does not affect the increase of transshipment cargo, only to suffer a loss, and thus a new incentive system is needed that does not allow shipping companies to regulate cargo volumes. Based on the result of this study, We have to apply the even-handed incentive rule which pays the incentive for the cargo volume of the pertinent year with the unit price per 1 TEU to avoid the chicken game among the ports.