• Title/Summary/Keyword: 표본반응모형

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Stochastic Optimization Method Using Gradient Based on Control Variates (통제변수 기반 Gradient를 이용한 확률적 최적화 기법)

  • Kwon, Chi-Myung;Kim, Seong-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we investigate an optimal allocation of constant service resources in stochastic system to optimize the expected performance of interest. For this purpose, we use the control variates to estimate the gradients of expected performance with respect to given resource parameters, and apply these estimated gradients in stochastic optimization algorithm to find the optimal allocation of resources. The proposed gradient estimation method is advantageous in that it uses simulation results of a single design point without increasing the number of design points in simulation experiments and does not need to describe the logical relationship among realized performance of interest and perturbations in input parameters. We consider the applications of this research to various models and extension of input parameter space as the future research.

An Empirical Testing of Employee Attchment Model: A Comprison of South Korean and U.S. Teachers (조직유착모형의 경험적 적합성에 관한 고찰 - 교사들의 경우를 중심으로 한 한 . 미간 비교연구 -)

  • 조동기
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.139-159
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    • 1996
  • This study comparatively examines a causal model of employee attatchment which focuses on employee's organizational commitment and intent to stay with an organization. This study is based on two separate studies of employee attachment among teachers : the U.S. case of the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and the South Korean case of the Seoul Educational District (SED). The main purpose of this study is to replicate in Korea the CPS study. A revised model based on the unique characteristics of Korean teachers is also developed and estimated. The Price Mueller model of employee attachment provides the basic theoretical framework for this study. It includes five general classes of variables : 1) employee responses to work variables : job satisfaction, commitment, and intent to stay; 2) psychological stress variables: role ambiguity, role conflict, work overload, and quality of students; 3) social structural variables: autonomy, routinization, distributive justice, and legitimacy; 4) economic structural variables: pay, job security, promotional opportunities, and job opportunities; and 5) work orientation variables : career commitment, normative commitment, work motivation, affectivity, work values, and met expectations. The data was collected through questionnaire survey and a sample of 649 secondary school teachers in Seoul, South Korea, was included in the final analysis. Covariance structure analysis (LISREL) was used to estimate the causal model. The results indicate that the endogenous variables of job satisfaction and commitment play a considerably less important role than in the U.S. model in mediating the effects of the exogenous variables on intent to stay, and the model fails to explain the majority of the variance in intent to stay. In addition, the new variables added to the revised Korean model do not bave significant effects on intent to stay. The structural characteristics of the employment relationship and labor markets associated with Korean teachers forced mobility and closed external markets - are largely accountable for the major differences between the Korean and the U.S. cases. The study suggests that conceptual and empirical work on what produces employee attachment under these structural constraints needs to receive more attention in future studies.

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Validation of the Korean Version of the Continuing Bonds Scale (한국판 지속 유대 척도의 타당화)

  • Kyeyang Kim ;Jongwon Park ;Wan-Suk Gim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.263-283
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    • 2016
  • The present study aimed at examining the factor structure, reliability and validity of the Korean version of the Continuing Bonds Scale (K-CBS). In study 1, exploratory factor analysis was administered to 293 bereaved adults who had experienced the death of a loved one, and it revealed a single factor structure with 10 items that explained 52.59% of the total variance. The K-CBS showed good internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha of .92. In study 2, confirmatory factor analysis in a different sample of 200 bereaved adults indicated satisfactory standardized regression weights of all items. However, one item had a squared multiple correlation less than .40, hence, this item was discarded, and 9 items remained for the final scale. The single factor model with 9 items displayed a good fit. The K-CBS had strong positive correlation with grief symptoms, and weak positive correlation with depression. After controlling for grief, however, the K-CBS was predictive of a decrease in depression. The K-CBS was positively associated with posttraumatic growth. In addition, significant differences in scores of the K-CBS were shown among groups based on the deceased's relation to the bereaved and expectedness of loss. These results suggest that the K-CBS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure continuing bonds. Finally, implications, limitations, and directions for future research were discussed.

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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An Empirical Study of Financial Analyst's Forecasting Activities on the Firm's Operating Performances (기업실적에 대한 재무분석가의 예측활동에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kwak, Jae-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2003
  • This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

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Market Discipline by Depositors : the Case of Mutual Savings Banks in Korea (상호저축은행과 예금자에 의한 시장규율)

  • Park, Jung-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.95-125
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    • 2009
  • This paper examines the disciplinary effect of deposits using the semiannual accounting data of mutual savings banks(henceforth 'MSBs') in Korea for the period of 2003 through 2007. I find overall strong evidence in favor of the existence of market discipline in the industry. MSBs with higher BIS ratio and lower NPL ratio turn out to have higher increase rate of deposits than MSBs with lower such ratios. The coefficient of NPL ratio becomes greater with time, suggesting that the effect is cumulative. It turns out that depositors respond more sensitively to NPL ratio than BIS ratio in a period of MSB failure. On the other hand, MSBs turn out to act very positively responding to the depositors' discipline. They increase BIS ratio or decrease NPL ratio following the previous decrease in deposits. Government authorities need to make more efforts to develop a suitable incentive system (e.g. penalties on a false disclosure) to improve the efficiency of disclosure by MSBs. Moreover, they need to acknowledge the importance of NPL ratio as a market disciplinary tool which has been becoming more important, especially in times of MSB failure.

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Demand Estimation for Art Museum using Travel Cost Method : A Case of National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art (여행비용접근법을 적용한 미술관 방문수요함수 추정 : 국립현대미술관을 사례로)

  • Eom, Young-Sook;Kim, Jin-Ok;Park, In-Sun
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.29-50
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    • 2016
  • This paper is to apply an individual travel cost method(TCM) to estimate demand functions for cultural services enjoyed by visiting 3 branches of the National Museum of Modern and Contemporary Art located in the Seoul Metropolitan area. This paper extends the standard TCM by incorporating opportunity costs of leisure time and two different data generating process - 398 respondents from an on-site survey and 600 respondents from a general household survey. Negative binomial models reflecting the non-negative integer nature of visiting frequency with over-dispersed variance were best fitted for demand functions, in which residents of Seoul metropolitan area surveyed from on the site exhibited higher visitation demand for the national art museum. Price elasticity and income elasticity differed by respondents' residency. Price elasticity of long distance visitors (-0.21) was more inelastic from those of Seoul residents (-0.34 ~ -0.5). Moreover, regional residents outside of Seoul area seemed to consider that services from the national art museum is a normal good with income elasticity of 0.5, whereas the Seoul residents seemed to perceive it to be an inferior good with income elasticity of -0.05.

Does the Business Survey Index of the Federation of Korean Industries at the Service Industry Lead the domestic stock market ? (서비스 산업에서 전경련 BSI지수는 주식시장을 예측할 수 있는가?)

  • Kim, Joo Il;Kim, Byoung ryul
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.41-54
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    • 2016
  • We examine the information transmission between the business survey index(BSI) based on the returns data offered by Federation of Korean Industries and KOSPI Index based on the returns data offered by Korea Bank. The data includes monthly return data from January 1998 to September 2015. The results of the analysis are as follows. Firstly, results of Granger Causality test suggests the existence of mutual causality KOSPI Index precede and have explanatory power BSI. Secondly, the results of impulse response function suggest that BSI Index show immediate response to KOSPI Index and are influenced by till time 4 From time 2 the impact gradually disappears. Also KOSPI Index show immediate response to BSI and are influenced by till time 4 From time 2 the impact gradually disappears. Lastly, the variance decomposition analysis showed a high influence of the KOSPI Index on the BSI and significant influence of the BSI on the KOSPI Index. This implies that returns on the KOSPI Index have a significant influence over returns on the BSI. The study is a further extension of existing studies on information transmission mechanism between the BSI and KOSPI. Finally, our results can be used as a guide by the Korea Bank and Republic of Korea and as well as Federation of Korean Industries.

KOSPI 200 ESG Index incorporation and market response (코스피 200 ESG 지수 편입과 시장반응)

  • Oh, Sang-Hui;Hwang, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2021
  • Focusing on the recently announced "KOSPI 200 ESG Index," this study intends to examine whether the "KOSPI 200 ESG Index" has any relevance to stock prices. Specifically, it was empirically analyzed whether companies included in the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return of stock prices due to incorporation into the index. As for the research method, the case study was conducted using the return by the market model using the coefficient estimated by the OLS for the normal expected return. The study results are summarized as follows. First, the initial incorporation of a company into the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed significant positive(+) average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return. Second, the incorporation of a company into the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed significant positive(+) average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return. Through this study, it was confirmed that investors in the market are aware of ESG indicators as non-financial information, not just financial information. In addition, it can be said that the contribution of this study to the fact that investors perceive ESG index as information for investment. This study differs in that it uses the latest ESG index, but at the same time, it has limitations in that the study period is short and the study sample is limited.

Study on the Effect of Self-Disclosure Factor on Exposure Behavior of Social Network Service (자기노출 요인이 소셜 네트워크 서비스의 노출행동에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Do Soon Kwon;Seong Jun Kim;Jung Eun Kim;Hye In Jeong;Ki Seok Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.209-233
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    • 2016
  • Internet companies that utilize social network have increased in number. The introduction of diverse social media services facilitated innovative changes in e-business. Social network service (SNS), which is a domain of social media, is a web-based service designed to strengthen human relations in the Internet and build new social relations. The remarkable growth of social network services and the profit generation and perception of this service are the new growth engines of this digital age. Given this development, many global IT companies views SNS as the most powerful form of social media. Thus, they invest efforts to develop business models using SNS.2) This study verifies the impact of privacy exposure in SNS as a result of privacy invasion. This study examines the purpose of using the SNS and user's awareness of the significance of personal information, which are key factors that affect self-disclosure of personal information. This study utilizes theory of reasoned action (TRA) to provide a theoretical platform that describes the specific behavior and emotional response of individuals. This study presents a research model that considers negative attitude (negatude). In this model, self-disclosure in SNS is considered a TRA. TRA is a subjective norm, a behavioral intention, and a key variable of exposure behavior. A survey was conducted on college students at Y university in Seoul to empirically verify the research model. The students have experiences in using SNS. A total of 198 samples were collected. Path analysis was applied to analyze the relations of factors. The results of path analysis show the statistically insignificant impact of privacy invasion on negatude, subjective norm, behavioral intention, and exposure behavior. The impact of unrecognized privacy invasion was also considered insignificant. The impacts of intention to use SNS on negatude, subjective norm, behavioral intention, and exposure behavior was significant. A significant impact was also found for the significance of personal information on subjective norm, behavioral intention, and exposure behavior, whereas the impact on negatude was insignificant. The impact of subjective norm on behavioral intention was significant. Lastly, the impact of behavioral intention on exposure behavior was insignificant. These findings are significant because the study examined the process of self-disclosure by integrating psychological and social factors based on theoretical discussion.