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Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

Meta-analysis on the Effect of Startup Support Policies to Startup Performance (창업지원정책이 창업성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Sun Chic;Jeon, Byung Hoon;Yun, Sung Im
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.95-114
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    • 2020
  • This paper, a meta-analysis of the effect of the start-up support policy on the start-up performance was conducted to examine the effect of the start-up support policy on the start-up performance of beneficiary companies and to provide theoretical and practical implications to support organizations and practitioners. To this end, 35 papers containing the correlation coefficient, which is a positive statistical value, were selected from the previous studies in academic journals and dissertations published in Korea from 2007 to 2020. In the preceding study of the start-up support policy, the independent variables include funding, education support, facility/equipment support, network support, mentoring support, consulting support, marketing support, management support, technical support, manpower support, and finance as a dependent variable. The effect size of the impact on aptitude and non-financial performance was reviewed. The pattern of the effect size was presented as a forest plot for easy visual understanding, and outliers were verified through sensitivity analysis for small-study-effect data with publication convenience. As a result of analyzing the effect size of the government-supported policy, it was verified that the effect size was generally medium or higher, affecting the entrepreneurial performance. Among the independent variables, the factor that has the greatest effect on startup performance is manpower support, followed by technical support, marketing support, management support, facility/equipment support, education support, mentoring support, funding, network support, and consulting support. It was analyzed that the effect size was large in order. As the 「Small and Medium Business Startup Support Act」 was recently reorganized from the manufacturing industry to digital transformation and smartization on October 8, 2020, the start-up support policy should consider the start-up stage and verify the priorities to organize the budget.

Factors that Influence Physician Salary Payment through Analyzing on Internet Invitation Webpage in Korea (초빙광고 자료를 활용한 봉직 의사의 급여수준과 관련요인)

  • Kang, Hyun Goo;Lee, Ji Hyung;Jung, Da-Doo;Lee, Moo-Sik
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.12-22
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    • 2021
  • Backgrounds: Proper distribution and supply of physicians are factors that affect national health care systems. This study investigated the payment distribution levels and the determinants that influence the salary levels of hospital hired physicians. Methods: We analyzed 4,014 job advertisements posted on an internet invitation information site about physician recruitment from May 2016 to May 2019. We used univariate analysis to determine the relationship between average monthly salary and the other related variables. Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of physician salary level. Results: The average monthly salary for the service physician was 15.4 million won, highest for orthopedic surgeons with 22.24 million won, and lowest for diagnostic laboratory physician with 11.4 million won. The factors significantly associated with average monthly salary were; non-major specialty, housing provision, no severance pay, and incentives(p<0.05). Non-major specialty, incentives, and the regions were predictors of the average standardized monthly salary(p<0.05). Conclusion: Factors associated with average monthly salary as revealed by this study were; medical specialty, hospital regional location, housing provision, payment of retirement allowance, and payment of other incentives respectively. However, this study was a cross-sectional study, and further studies will be required.

A Deconstructive Understanding the Concept of Haewon in Daesoon Truth: From the Perspective of Derrida's Deconstruction Theory (대순진리의 해원(解冤)사상에 대한 해체(解體)론적 이해 -자크 데리다(Jacques Derrida)의 해체론을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Dae-hyeon
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.39
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    • pp.69-97
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    • 2021
  • 'Déconstruction' is a system of thought that induces the emergent property that characterizes contemporary philosophy. The tradition of ancient Greek philosophy evolved over and over again, giving rise to the Renaissance and Enlightenment. It seemed to have reached its end under the historical perspective of modernity. However, contemporary philosophy wanted to see more possibilities through the deconstruction of modern philosophy. If modern philosophy dreams of a strange cohabitation between God and man with the humanistic completion of Plato's philosophy, modern philosophy rejects even that through deconstruction. Although Plato's classical metaphysics is a stable system centered around the absolute, it is ultimately based on God and religion. Under that system, human autonomy is only the autonomy bestowed by God. Contemporary philosophy is one of the results of efforts that try to begin philosophy from the original human voice through deconstruction. Instead of epistemology dependent on metaphysics, they wanted to establish epistemology from human existence and realize the best good that would set humans free through deconstruction. As such, it is no mistake to say that deconstruction is also an extension of the modern topic of human freedom. Deconstruction and human freedom act as one body in that the two cannot be separated from each other. Oddly enough, Daesoon Thought, which seems to have religious faith and traditional conservatism as main characteristics, has an emergent property that encompasses modern and contemporary times. The period of Korea, when Kang Jeungsan was active and founded Daesoon Thought, has an important meaning for those who have a keen view of history. Such individuals likely think that they have found a valuable treasure. This is because that period was a time when ideological activities were conducted due to an intense desire to discover the meaning of human freedom and envision a new world without copying the ways of the West. Instead they looked to face internal problems and raise people's awareness through subjectivity. In other words, the subtle ideas created by Korea's self-sustaining liberalism often take the form of what is commonly called new religions in modern times. Among these new religions, Daesoon Thought, as a Chamdonghak (true Eastern Learning), aims to spread a particular modern value beyond modern times through the concept of Haewon (the resolution of grievances) that was proclaimed by Jeungsan. The Haewon espoused in Daesoon Thought is in line with the disbandment of modern philosophy in that it contains modernity beyond modern times. First, Haewon means to resolve the fundamental resentment of human existence, which arose from Danju's grievance. Secondly, Haewon in Daesoon Thought encompasses the Haewon of the Three Realms of Heaven, Earth, and Humanity centers on a Haewon-esque style of existence called Injon (Human Nobility). Haewon in Daesoon Thought can be understood in the same context as Derrida's philosophy of Deconstruction. Modern deconstruction attempts to expose the invisible structures and bonds within human society and attempt to destroy them. In a similar way, Haewon endeavors to resolve the conflicts among the Three Realms by releasing the bonds of fundamental oppression that hinder the Three Realms of Heaven, Earth, and Humanity.

Perceived Social Support Among the Elderly People Living Alone and Their Preference for Institutional Care: Analysis of the Mediator Effect in the Perception of the Probability of Lonely Death (독거노인의 지각된 사회적 지지와 시설 돌봄 선호: 고독사 가능성 인식의 매개 효과 분석)

  • Cho, Hye Jin;Lee, Jun Young
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.707-727
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to empirically analyze the role that perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone plays in the relationship between perceived social support and preference for institutional care based on Andersen's expanded Behavioral Model (2002). The subjects (n=676) of this study were the elderly people living alone, extracted from the "2018 Seoul Aging Survey." With "perceived social support" as an independent variable, "preference for institutional care" as a dependent variable, and "perception of the probability of lonely death" as a mediator variable, we conducted a Binary Logistic Regression to follow the three steps of analyzing mediation effect, as suggested by Baron and Kenny (1986). The results showed that perceived social support has a negative effect on the preference for institutional care and perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone; at the same time, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to have a positive effect on their preference for institutional care. Lastly, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to partially mediate the effect of perceived social support among the elderly people living alone in terms of their preference for institutional care. Based on these findings, the practical implications of this study can be summarized as follows. First, various programs and support should be provided to the elderly people living alone in order to enhance the level of perceived social support, a factor that has been confirmed to increase preference for institutional care among the elderly people living alone. Second, as the perception of the probability of lonely death was confirmed to be a psychosocial factor of the preference for institutional care, we need to promote education and support for older people living alone to prepare them for lonely death. These efforts are expected to form a foundations for implementing a community-based integrated care system, "Aging in Place," which is the policy direction required for older people care.

Characteristic factors of Musical Actor affect the Audience's Loyalty to the Performance : Focus on the Mediating Effects of Audience's Sensory Presence (공연 충성도에 영향을 미치는 뮤지컬 배우의 특성 요인 : 감각적 현전의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Hyeong-Yeol;Choi, Bae-Suk
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.237-249
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed the characteristic factors of musical actor that affect the audience's loyalty to the performance by inducing the audience's sensory presence which is the unique characteristic of the performing arts and analyzed the mediating effects of audience's sensory presence between the characteristics of musical actor and audience's loyalty to the performance. Actor's characteristics which are an independent variable were composed with the appearance of actor, acting skills, sing ability and actor's known degree. Audience's sensory presence which is mediating variable was divided into immersion and identification. Audience's loyalty to the performance which is a dependent variable was set as intention of recommendation and intention of revisit the performance. The result of analysis shows that identification have significant mediating effects in all independent variables except between actor's known degree and the audience loyalty to the performance. It shows immersion have also significant mediating effects among all independent variables and the audience loyalty to the performance. The multiple mediating effects of Immersion and Identification between Actor's characteristics and Loyalty to the performance have significant effects all parts. Especially, The result of this study shows that indirect effects that arrive to the loyalty through immersion or identification are larger than the direct effect that actor's characteristics affect to the loyalty to the performance. Actor's characteristics which affect Audience's loyalty to the performance by mediating Audience's sensory presence are shown in order of appearance of actor, acting skills, sing ability and actor's known degree. These results suggest key factors of musical actor's characteristics which lead loyalty to the performance by mediating Audience's sensory presence to musical producers and directors and actors.

Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea (로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적의 공간변화 예측에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn;PARK, So-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 2021
  • This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.

The Direction of Physical Training for Actor in Post-Drama Era, "Empty" (포스트드라마 시대에 따른 배우의 몸 훈련의 방향성,'비우기(empty)')

  • Ra, Kyung-Min
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2020
  • Today, the transition to the era of "post-drama" brought a change in the position of text, which was considered the center of the play, and the expansion of the role of actors. After entering the post-drama era, the actor no longer transforms himself into "delivering" the fixed meaning of text, but "producing" the valid meaning of "now, here" meeting the audience. In other words, actors in the post-drama era have expanded their roles as "performers" who can become the subject of narratives themselves and create various theatrical languages. Despite the expansion of the actor's role, verbal-centered actor training through text, which still forms the basis of acting education, does not satisfy the newly changing contemporary theatricality and creates a gap between education and the field. Therefore, the researcher argued that non-verbal-centered acting education needs to be discussed, and highlighted the actors' physical training on the "empty" side. The researchers first compare and analyze the characteristics of modern theater people's training methods from an "empty" perspective. Based on this, researchers about the meaning and direction of the training "empty". Furthermore, the study concludes with an emphasis on the direction of acting education in the post-drama era, which is free from language that can respond to stimuli and interact freely.

A Study on the Determinant of Capital Structure of Chinese Shipbuilding Industry (중국 조선기업 자본구조 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Jin, Siwen;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2022
  • Since 2008, China's shipping industry has been in a slump, with shipbuilding orders falling sharply, and high-growth excess capacity has become increasingly apparent, leaving many firms with sharply reduced orders at risk of bankruptcy and shutdown. To ensure the development of the shipbuilding industry and enhance the international competitiveness of the shipbuilding industry, it is necessary to analyze the present situation of the shipbuilding industry and the financial situation of the shipbuilding enterprises. And analyzing the problems faced by enterprises from the perspective of capital structure is very meaningful to the shipbuilders with high capital operation. We are trying to analyze the determinants of capital structure of China's shipbuilding listed companies. 30 listed Chinese shipbuilding and listed companies have been designated as sample companies that can obtain financial statements for 13 consecutive years. They also divided 30 sample companies into shipbuilding, shipbuilding-related manufacturing, and shipbuilding-related transportation. Dependent variable is the debt level of the year, independent variable includes the debt level of the previous year, fixed asset ratio, profitability ratio, depreciation cost ratio and asset size. The regression model of the panel used to analyze determinants is capital structure. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, a fixed-effect model for the entire entity showed that the debt-to-equity ratio and the size of the asset in the previous period had a positive effect on the debt-to-equity ratio in the current period. Second, the impact of the profitability ratio on the debt level in the prior term also supports the capital procurement ranking theory rather than the static counter-conflict theory. Third, it was shown that the ratio of the depreciation of the prior term, which replaces the non-liability tax effect, affects the debt-to-equity ratio in the current period.

Minimizing Estimation Errors of a Wind Velocity Forecasting Technique That Functions as an Early Warning System in the Agricultural Sector (농업기상재해 조기경보시스템의 풍속 예측 기법 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Park, Joo-Hyeon;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.63-77
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    • 2022
  • Our aim was to reduce estimation errors of a wind velocity model used as an early warning system for weather risk management in the agricultural sector. The Rural Development Administration (RDA) agricultural weather observation network's wind velocity data and its corresponding estimated data from January to December 2020 were used to calculate linear regression equations (Y = aX + b). In each linear regression, the wind estimation error at 87 points and eight time slots per day (00:00, 03:00, 06:00, 09.00, 12.00, 15.00, 18.00, and 21:00) is the dependent variable (Y), while the estimated wind velocity is the independent variable (X). When the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5, the regression equation was used as the wind velocity correction equation. In contrast, when the correlation coefficient was less than 0.5, the mean error (ME) at the corresponding points and time slots was substituted as the correction value instead of the regression equation. To enable the use of wind velocity model at a national scale, a distribution map with a grid resolution of 250 m was created. This objective was achieved b y performing a spatial interpolation with an inverse distance weighted (IDW) technique using the regression coefficients (a and b), the correlation coefficient (R), and the ME values for the 87 points and eight time slots. Interpolated grid values for 13 weather observation points in rural areas were then extracted. The wind velocity estimation errors for 13 points from January to December 2019 were corrected and compared with the system's values. After correction, the mean ME of the wind velocities reduced from 0.68 m/s to 0.45 m/s, while the mean RMSE reduced from 1.30 m/s to 1.05 m/s. In conclusion, the system's wind velocities were overestimated across all time slots; however, after the correction model was applied, the overestimation reduced in all time slots, except for 15:00. The ME and RMSE improved b y 33% and 19.2%, respectively. In our system, the warning for wind damage risk to crops is driven by the daily maximum wind speed derived from the daily mean wind speed obtained eight times per day. This approach is expected to reduce false alarms within the context of strong wind risk, by reducing the overestimation of wind velocities.