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http://dx.doi.org/10.11108/kagis.2021.24.4.099

Change Prediction of Future Forestland Area by Transition of Land Use Types in South Korea  

KWAK, Doo-Ahn (Forest Policy and Economics Division, National Institute of Forest Science)
PARK, So-Hee (Forest Policy and Economics Division, National Institute of Forest Science)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies / v.24, no.4, 2021 , pp. 99-112 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study was performed to predict spatial change of future forestland area in South Korea at regional level for supporting forest-related plans established by local governments. In the study, land use was classified to three types which are forestland, agricultural land, and urban and other lands. A logistic regression model was developed using transitional interaction between each land use type and topographical factors, land use restriction factors, socioeconomic indices, and development infrastructures. In this model, change probability from a target land use type to other land use types was estimated using raster dataset(30m×30m) for each variable. With priority order map based on the probability of land use change, the total annual amount of land use change was allocated to the cells in the order of the highest transition potential for the spatial analysis. In results, it was found that slope degree and slope standard value by the local government were the main factors affecting the probability of change from forestland to urban and other land. Also, forestland was more likely to change to urban and other land in the conditions of a more gentle slope, lower slope criterion allowed to developed, and higher land price and population density. Consequently, it was predicted that forestland area would decrease by 2027 due to the change from forestland to urban and others, especially in metropolitan and major cities, and that forestland area would increase between 2028 and 2050 in the most local provincial cities except Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, and Jeju Island due to locality extinction with decline in population. Thus, local government is required to set an adequate forestland use criterion for balanced development, reasonable use and conservation, and to establish the regional forest strategies and policies considering the future land use change trends.
Keywords
Logistic regression model; Geographical model; Land use change; Transition potential map; Regional land use planning; Population decrement;
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