• Title/Summary/Keyword: 성공예측

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Future Scenarios Regarding Domestic Labor and Caregiving by the Baby Boomer Generation in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4차 산업혁명 시대, 베이비부머 세대의 가사노동과 돌봄의 미래 시나리오 - 시나리오 플래닝 기법 활용을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Sunhyung;Kim, Sunghee
    • Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2023
  • This study forecasts the outlook 10 years from now regarding domestic labor and caregiving by the Baby Boomer generation and the preparations needed in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The scenario-planning method was used to explore changing trends in domestic labor and caregiving, the rationale for which has been questioned by both seniors and family welfare experts. Based on the results of the survey and our researchers' opinions, it was concluded that the changing trends were caused by two factors: the probability of alterations in domestic labor and the strength of family relationships. On the basis of these conclusions, four scenarios regarding baby boomers' domestic labor and caregiving in 10 years were proposed using two axes: the "high and low probability of alterations" and the "strengthening and weakening of family relationships." The first scenario is a "preference for the self-caring form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. The second scenario is a "preference for the flexible form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The third scenario is a "preference for the traditional form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The fourth scenario is a "preference for the public caregiving form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. These results provide basic information about the various aspects of baby boomers' lives-including the development of various goods and services, the establishment of policies regarding seniors, and programs for successful aging-and can help equip our society to take the actions needed for a super-aged population.

Analysis on the Importance Rank of Service Components of Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Service by Potential User Groups (수요응답형 자율주행 대중교통 서비스의 잠재적 이용자 집단 간 서비스 요소별 중요도에 관한 분석)

  • Sungju Seo;Jinhee Kim;Jaehyung Lee;Byungsoo Yang
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2022
  • In the near future, it is expected that the use of autonomous mobility-on-demand services will increase. Considering its complicated service components, including vehicle convenience, driving and matching speed, and platform convenience, the priorities of them will need to be determined for a successful establishment. In this context, this study examined the importance rank of each service component through an online survey of potential users of autonomous mobility-on-demand services. As a result of the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) with respect to the upper-level components, driving and matching speed component is selected as most important, followed by platform convenience and vehicle convenience. Mean rank analysis with respect to lower-level components showed that the in-vehicle congestion level of vehicle convenience, waiting time of driving and matching speed, and pre-booking availability of platform convenience each ranked first. Additional analysis regarding each group was conducted to establish a group-specific strategy. As a result, it would be better to focus on a vehicle than a mobile platform when designing services for the region with a high proportion of the older. Moreover, it is recommended to speed up the driving and matching speeds more than the current public transport, alleviate in-vehicle congestion, and enable the users to book the schedule in advance.

Effects of Temperature on the Development and Reproduction of Matsumuraeses falcana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) (어리팥나방(Matsumuraeses falcana)의 발육과 생식에 미치는 온도의 영향)

  • Jeong Joon, Ahn;Eun Young, Kim;Bo Yoon, Seo; Jin Kyo, Jung
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.61 no.3
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    • pp.435-447
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    • 2022
  • The soybean podborer, Matsumuraeses falcana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is one of important pests in soybean crop. In the purpose of forecasting population dynamics of M. falcana, we investigated the effects of temperature on development of each life stage, adult longevity and fecundity of Matsumuraeses falcana at seven constant temperatures of 10, 13, 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31℃. Eggs hatched successfully at all temperature subjected. M. falcana developed from egg hatching to adult emergence at the tested temperatures except 10, 13, and 31℃. The developmental period of each life stage and adult longevity of M. falcana decreased as temperature increased. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) and thermal constant (K) from egg hatching to adult emergence of M. falcana were estimated by linear regression as 10.2℃ and 492.04DD, respectively. Lower and higher threshold temperature (TL and TH) were calculated by the Lobry-Rosso-Flandrois (LRF) and Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto (SSI) models. TL and TH from egg hatching to adult emergence using SSI model were 16.7℃ and 29.1℃. Thermal windows, i.e., the range in temperature between the minimum and maximum rate of development, of M. falcana was 12.4℃. We constructed the adult oviposition model of M. falcana using adult survivorship and fecundity. Temperature-dependent immature development and adult oviposition models will help constructing the population model of M. falcana and developing the strategies of integrated pest management in soybean fields.

A Study on the Environment of Storytelling Based on the History of Japanese Imperialism and Its Problems and Improvements - Around the Militia, Assassination, The Battleship Island, Anarchist from Colony, Dongju and Princess Deokhye - (일제강점기 역사 서사를 중심으로 한 스토리텔링의 환경과 그에 따른 문제점과 개선 방안 연구 - 밀정, 암살, 박열, 동주, 군함도 그리고 덕혜옹주 중심으로 -)

  • Jin, Seung-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, it is predicted that the tendency of planning and genre films to produce high - quality films will continue, but it is necessary to have high value and meaningful films and solid storytelling. From the blockbuster warships to arts and low-budget films, the movie genre is centered around fiction and storytelling. However, in the case of Princess Deokhye, it is difficult to recognize any categories of entertainment or artistic due to the fact that it is highly visually and has a high historical status and low awareness. And the distortions of the facts have caused a lot of controversy. However, it seems that Dongju and Park are usually composed of individual - oriented narratives and can be freed from the artistic approach and historical facts in the material. In addition, historical facts should not be distorted or exaggerated. Through this study,

Availability of the metapopulation theory in research of biological invasion: Focusing on the invasion success (침입생물 연구에 대한 메타개체군 이론의 활용 가능성: 침입 성공을 중심으로)

  • Jaejun Song;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.525-549
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    • 2022
  • The process of biological invasion is led by the dynamics of a population as a demographic and evolutionary unit. Spatial structure can affect the population dynamics, and it is worth being considered in research on biological invasion which is always accompanied by dispersal. Metapopulation theory is a representative approach to spatially structured populations, which is chiefly applied in the field of ecology and evolutionary biology despite the controversy about its definition. In this study, metapopulation was considered as a spatially structured population that includes at least one subpopulation with significant extinction probability. The early phase of the invasion is suitable to be analyzed in aspects of the metapopulation concept because the introduced population usually has a high extinction probability, and their ecological·genetic traits determining the invasiveness can be affected by the metapopulation structure. Although it is important in the explanation of the prediction of the invasion probability, the metapopulation concept is rarely used in ecological research about biological invasion in Korea. It is expected that applying the metapopulation theory can supply a more detailed investigation of the invasion process at the population level, which is relatively inadequate in Korea. In this study, a framework dividing the invasive metapopulation into long- and middle-distance scales by the relative distance of movement to the natural dispersal range of species is proposed to easily analyze the effect of a metapopulation in real cases. Increased understanding of the mechanisms underlying invasions and improved prediction of future invasion risk are expected with the metapopulation concept and this framework.

Organizational Reform for the Successful Implementation of Infrastructure Asset Management using Balanced Score Cards (균형성과지표를 활용한 사회기반시설 자산관리 조직 개선 방안)

  • Chae, Myung Jin;Park, Ha Jin;Lee, Gu;Lee, Geon Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6D
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    • pp.745-752
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    • 2009
  • Management of social infrastructure has been advanced from facility management (FM) to asset management (AM), which adopts the aggressive and proactive methods in predicting the deterioration of infrastructure, prevents failures, and eventually saves maintenance cost. Infrastructure asset management is not a simple engineering technique, but it is a new paradigm evolved from facility management practices. To implement the infrastructure asset management successfully, organizational reform is very important. This paper suggests critical success factors and key performance indicators to implement the infrastructure asset management for facility managers of government owned social infrastructures such as roads and bridges. Reorganizing the facility management group requires new vision, objectives, strategies for the paradigm-changing asset management. This paper uses Balanced Score Card (BSC) which is a proven method in measuring and setting new objectives for an organization. Once the performance indicators are reviewed repeatedly by facility managers through experts workshops, developed BSC can be used in practice. This paper discusses the development of robust BSC scoring method through in depth literature reviews and investigation of asset management practices of domestic and international cases.

Development procedures of franchise Industries in Current state of manpower and research on its utilization (프랜차이즈 산업 발전과정에서 인력현황 및 활용에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong il;Park, Shinja
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.43-63
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    • 2010
  • Currently, franchise industries are constantly rising in the domestically and it is possible to predict that franchise industries will rapidly develop internationally. Local Franchisee markets are increasing quickly and in year 2010 their income will exceed 114 trillion won. Annually, new franchise system is being born; however, there are only few industries that success in the market. When circulation market was opened for foreign franchise industries, their numbers of franchisee were rapidly increasing; however, domestic franchise industries are not securing new franchise and strengthening current franchise 's man power moreover these implements are being discarded. Therefore, in this research shows that development procedures of franchise division and utilization of personnel, and subsequent to this research indicates that changes of scales and income of cooperate growth will determine numbers of manpower on franchise industry. N ow days, when we are looking at personnel in franchise industries, they need more personnel in distribution, finance, and accounting department, so this phenomenon formalize life cycle of organization and its stages. When we are considering life cycle of organization, needs of human resource on future is important.

GIS Based Distributed Flood Damage Assessment (GIS기반의 분포형 홍수피해산정 기법)

  • Yi, Choong Sung;Choi, Seung An;Shim, Myung Pil;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3B
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 2006
  • Typically, we needs enormous national budget for the flood control project and so the project usually has big influence on the national economy. Therefore, the reliable estimation of flood damage is the key issue for the economic analysis of the flood control project. This study aims to provide a GIS based technique for distributed flood damage estimation. We consider two aspects of engineering and economic sides, which are the inundation analysis and MD-FDA (Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis), for the flood damage assessment. We propose the analysis framework and data processing using GIS for assessing flood damages. The proposed methodology is applied to the flood control channel project for flood disaster prevention in Mokgamcheon/Dorimcheon streams and this study presents the detailed GIS database and the assessment results of flood damages. This study may have the worth in improving practical usability of MD-FDA and also providing research direction for combining economic side with the engineering aspect. Also this distributed technique will help decision-making in evaluating the feasibility of flood damage reduction programs for structural and nonstructural measures.

Improving Health-related Behaviors and General Self-control Behaviors through a College-level Self-management Course (자기관리수업을 통한 충동성의 감소가 건강증진 행동 및 전반적인 다양한 자기통제 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Seo, Jihyeon;Chung, Kyong-Mee
    • Korean Journal of Health Psychology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.929-955
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to 1) explore the effectiveness of a college-level self-management (SM) course in improving a target behavior and reducing impulsivity, 2) investigate improvements in other non-target self-control behaviors(generalization of self-control), and 3) determine whether change in impulsivity could predict the generalization of self-control. A total of 128 College students who took the SM course were included. Participants completed the computerized delay-discounting task, self-report impulsiveness scale, and general self-control behavior questionnaire at the beginning and end of the course. After participants had defined their target behaviors, they self-monitored and recorded their behaviors everyday throughout the course. Results revealed that 63% of the participants successfully changed their target behaviors after the course. Although differing depending on the type of target behavior, thoes who successfully changed their target behaviors reported decreases in impulsivity and increases in other self-control behaviors such as physical exercise, healthy diet, study habits, and time management, after the course. Furthermore, the decrease of impulsivity significantly predicted the generalization of self-control in the exercise and diet groups. The results indicate that reduced impulsivity is related to improvements in a target behavior and general self-control behaviors in other spheres. Implications and limitations are also discussed.

A Framework for Identifying and Analyzing IT Project Risk Factors (IT프로젝트 위험 요인 식별 및 분석 프레임워크 연구)

  • Jangho Choi;Chanhee Kwak;Heeseok Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.87-110
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    • 2017
  • Analyzing and finding the risk factors in information technology (IT) projects have been discussed because risk management is an important issue in IT project management. This study obtained the risk factor checklists with priorities, analyzed the causal relationship of risk factors, and determined their influences on IT project management. However, only few studies systematically classified IT project risk factors in terms of risk exposure. These studies considered both the probability of occurrence and the degree of risk simultaneously. The present study determined 53 IT project risk factors on the basis of literature and expert group discussions. Additionally, this study presented clustering analysis based on the data of 140 project managers. The IT project risk factor classification framework was divided into four areas (HIHF, HILF, LIHF, and LILF). The present results can be used to help IT project managers establish effective risk management strategies and reduce IT project failures. This study also provides academic implication because it considers both the probability of occurrence and the degree of influence of risk factors.