• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1-13
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• 2016

This study attempts to establish a precise forecast model for the container inventory demand of shipping companies through forecasts based on equipment type/size, ports, and weekly system dynamics. The forecast subjects were Shanghai and Yantian Ports. Only dry containers (20, 40) and high cubes (40) were used as the subject container inventory in this study due to their large demand and valid data computation. The simulation period was from 2011 to 2017 and weekly data were used, applying the actual data frequency among shipping companies. The results of the model accuracy test obtained through an application of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verified that the forecast model for dry 40' demand, dry 40' high cube demand, dry 20' supply, dry 40' supply, and dry 40' high cube supply in Shanghai Port provided an accurate prediction, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Shanghai Port was otherwise verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model for dry 40' high cube demand and dry 20' supply in Yantian Port was accurate, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Yantian Port was generally verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model in this study also had relatively high accuracy when compared with the actueal data managed in shipping companies.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2006.06b
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• pp.373-380
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• 2006

Many changes lie ahead for Korea both domestically and internationally including opening of Busan New Port, more active Gwangyang Port as well as rapid growth of Shanghai Port and enhanced services and productivity at Shenzen Port. Compared to newer ports, Busan Port possesses old equipment and facilities. Therefore, in order for Busan Port to maintain its service level and remain competitive and productive, it needs to undergo remodeling to enhance productivity. Such remodeling activities should be implemented on a continual basis by developing and applying new technologies such as those for gate system, berth system, yard system, and IT system Therefore, this study is conducted the introduction. of remodeling concept, the status of Busan Port, and the technical review of remodeling.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.65-72
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• 2008

This study is aimed to contribute in establishing new port policy by research and analysis in design of global port logistics network in the East Asia region. In order to build such port logistics network, 21 ports located in East Asia among the world's 50th largest ports were selected in this study. Furthermore, the amount of container cargo and the ports of call were analyzed to categorize the subject ports in East Asia. Finally, this study tries to find economic network between the base port in East Asia, EU or North America and feeder ports in terms of logistics cost. As a result, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Busan ports were found as the representative ports in the East Asia that may connect North America and Europe with the minimum logistics expenses. Therefore, to maintain the stable cargo volume in ports, Korea should promote not only the overseas terminal operation which links to the Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai ports, but also establish the global port logistic network connecting the Busan port.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.11
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• pp.5465-5475
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• 2013

In this study, when to invest in real estate abroad, to present a real option in the way of decision-making. Thus, by using the binomial option model of one of the real thing and DCF, we compared the choice of real estate investment in China and South Korea. Research concerns the real estate market of Shanghai and Seoul, Analyzed the data between 2001-2009. Results were calculated NPV investment period (Net Present Value), Seoul appears in 435.44, Shanghai was 398.26. Investment decision by NPV method will select Seoul. However, as a result of calculating the value using the real option, it was found that for Seoul appear in 615.4, Shanghai has been shown to 626.1, and is suitable for investment in Shanghai. Assuming on the basis of this, that it has invested in practice, and compare the results, Seoul is intended for since 2010, real estate prices fell to 2013 currently, damage has occurred, profit's occurred Shanghai. This ensures that when making decisions in real estate investment and to use the real option than the existing DCF is appropriate.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

In order to be a hub-port in Northeast Asia, current China government has intensively invested in port development. Further, this development Project is significantly big scale, compared with those projects which Korea and Japan have. Thus, China is beginning to threaten Korean ports, especially Busan port which try to be a hub port in Northeast Asia. For this reason, recently many studies to evaluate competitiveness between Korean ports, especially Busan and Gwangyang, and Chinese ports have been conducted. In the mean time, implications of those pervious research has mainly been based on evaluation of port competitiveness using evaluation methodologies, such as AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process) and HFP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process). However, as previous evaluation algorithms are methodologies that only calculate ranking of ports by competitiveness level, from the results of analysis, critical weak points affected current port competitiveness could not clearly fine out. That is, because there has not been any algorithm that can extract critical points from the evaluation results. The aim of this paper is to present critical points that affect port competitiveness using an algorithm based on IRFE(Inverse Relation of Fuzzy Evaluation), and scenario analysis, from previous results of evaluation of port competitiveness. And The research scope is to covey the subjective ports of Korea and China's 7 major ports (Busan, Gwangyang, Sanghai, Qingdao, Tienjin, Dalian and Kaoshuing). From analysis, it was found that critical weak point of Busan port is the level of hinterland including availability of free trade zone.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.57-63
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• 2008

Recently, Green Port project to develop an environment-friendly port is active to lead by Port of LA, Port of LB in the USA and Port of Rotterdam. While, Port of Singapore, Shanghai Port and Dubai Port are trying to be a complex Port to function as a true portal not only for freight, but also for people and information. Ports, in this era, doesn't just play a simple transportational role for passengers and freight. Ports in this 21st century, play a role as a center where passengers, freight, information and money gather and a place where freight is created from nearby supporting area. Therefore, this study intends to draw action plans for Port of Busan to grow as Complex Port in the 21st century by AHP analysis and evaluate the action plans of each field by quantitative factors (business portion in the area/specialty/synergy effect with other industry) and qualitative factors (potential for future growth/competitiveness/ capability for innovation). The evaluation result can be used as basic information to decide business priority.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.73-95
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• 2013

This paper analyzes a competitive shipping market in East Asia in order to explore how container carriers make decisions on ship size, number of ships, service frequency, and service route. A sequential-move game based on non-cooperative game theory is applied to establish the models for the decision-makings involving the transportation volumes, freight rates, costs, and market shares of the service routes from Shanghai or Hong Kong to the ports in Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. According to the sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium solutions proposed by these models, carriers' decisions in such a competitive environment vary depending on sailing distance, transport demand, and freight rates. Therefore, carriers are recommended to reflect the optimal equilibrium solutions and a variety of decision factors when formulating strategies for transportation networks and operating fleets. Furthermore, ports should establish management strategies for these factors to provide optimal equilibrium solutions for carriers' transportation networks.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.30 no.6 s.112
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• pp.499-508
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• 2006

Many changes lie ahead for Korea both domestically and internationally including opening of Busan New Port, more active Gwangyang Port as well as rapid growth of Shanghai Port and enhanced services and productivity at Shenzen Port. Compared to newer ports, container terminals in Busan Port possesses old equipment and facilities. Therefore, in order for Busan Port to maintain its service level and remain competitive, it needs to undergo remodeling to enhance productivity. Remodeling activities should be implemented on a continual basis by developing and applying new technologies such as those for gate system, berth system, yard system, and IT system In order to review the alternatives, we performed questionnaire survey and interview. From the result of analysis, we designed the application plan based on priority in remodeling, period of technology application, and direction for application.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.31 no.5 s.121
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• pp.377-383
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• 2007

The number of calling ports has been decreased and the degree of inter- and intra-port competition has been increased, which is caused by the market trends that shipping liners have and operate their own terminals, strategic M & A frequency occurs among shipping liners, and container vessel size is increasing. The trends also cause shipping liners to change the evaluation factors for decision to call a particular port such as port preference, potential for growth, port competitiveness, etc. Since the decision of liners greatly influences the policies for port and terminal development, it is worth having interest in the evaluation factors. Therefore, this work intended to evaluate 8 major ports (Port of Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Busan, Rotterdam, Kaoshing, and Tokyo) with regard to liners' evaluation factors (calling port preference, potential for growth and port competitiveness) and to classify ports by similarity of evaluation factors with the methodologies of ANOVA analysis and Duncan test. The result shows implication for liners' viewpoint to evaluate major ports in the world.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.25-39
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• 2023

As the scope of supply chains expands globally, unpredictable risks continue to arise. The occurrence of these supply chain risks affects port cargo throughput and hinders port operation. In order to examine the impact of global supply chain risks on port container throughput, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the impact of variables such as the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), Industrial Production Index, and Retail Sales Index on port traffic using the vector autoregressive(VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, the rise in GSCPI causes a short-term decrease in the throughput of Busan Port, but after a certain point, it acts as a factor increasing the throughput and affects it in the form of a wave. In addition, the industrial production index and the retail sales index were found to have no statistically significant effect on the throughput of Busan Port. In the case of SCFI, the effect was almost similar to that of GSCPI. The results of this study reveal how risks affect port cargo throughput in a situation where supply chain risks are gradually increasing, providing many implications for establishing port operation policies for future supply chain risks.