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Establishing a Demand Forecast Model for Container Inventory in Liner Shipping Companies  

Jeon, Jun-woo (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
Jung, Kil-su (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
Gong, Jeong-min (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
Yeo, Gi-tae (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Port Economic Association / v.32, no.4, 2016 , pp. 1-13 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study attempts to establish a precise forecast model for the container inventory demand of shipping companies through forecasts based on equipment type/size, ports, and weekly system dynamics. The forecast subjects were Shanghai and Yantian Ports. Only dry containers (20, 40) and high cubes (40) were used as the subject container inventory in this study due to their large demand and valid data computation. The simulation period was from 2011 to 2017 and weekly data were used, applying the actual data frequency among shipping companies. The results of the model accuracy test obtained through an application of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) verified that the forecast model for dry 40' demand, dry 40' high cube demand, dry 20' supply, dry 40' supply, and dry 40' high cube supply in Shanghai Port provided an accurate prediction, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Shanghai Port was otherwise verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model for dry 40' high cube demand and dry 20' supply in Yantian Port was accurate, with $0%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}10%$. The forecast model for supply and demand in Yantian Port was generally verified to have relatively high prediction power, with $10%{\leq}MAPE{\leq}20%$. The forecast model in this study also had relatively high accuracy when compared with the actueal data managed in shipping companies.
Keywords
System Dynamics; Demand forecasting; shipping company; Container; simulation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 6  (Citation Analysis)
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