• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통영향 예측

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Development of Trip Generation Type Models toward Traffic Zone Characteristics (Zone특성 분할을 통한 유형별 통행발생 모형개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Young-Taek
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2010
  • Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step model and has great effects on overall demand forecasting, so accuracy really matters at this stage. A linear regression model is widely used as a current trip generation model for such plans as urban transportation and SOC facilities, assuming that the relationship between each socio-economic index and trip generation stays linear. But when rapid urban development or an urban planning structure has changed, socio-economic index data for trip estimation may be lacking to bring many errors in estimated trip. Hence, instead of assuming that a socio-economic index widely used for a general purpose, this study aims to develop a new trip generation model by type based on the market separation for the variables to reflect the characteristics of various zones. The study considered the various characteristics (land use, socio-economic) of zones to enhance the forecasting accuracy of a trip generation model, the first-step in forecasting transportation demands. For a market separation methodology to improve forecasting accuracy, data mining (CART) on the basis of trip generation was used along with a regression analysis. Findings of the study indicated as follows : First, the analysis of zone characteristics using the CART analysis showed that trip production was under the influence of socio-economic factors (men-women relative proportion, age group (22 to 29)), while trip attraction was affected by land use factors (the relative proportion of business facilities) and the socio-economic factor (the relative proportion of third industry workers). Second, model development by type showed as a result that trip generation coefficients revealed 0.977 to 0.987 (trip/person) for "production" 0.692 to 3.256 (trip/person) for "attraction", which brought the necessity for type classifications. Third, a measured verification was conducted, where "production" and "attraction" showed a higher suitability than the existing model. The trip generation model by type developed in this study, therefore, turned out to be superior to the existing one.

Transmissibility Effect Evaluation of Buildings Near Railroad Areas (철도인접지역 건물에 대한 진동전달율의 영향성 평가)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyeon;Yoon, Sung-Won
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2011
  • For train vibration influence assessment of newly constructed buildings in building design levels, 4 train measured vibration acceleration responses were used to compare with TR theory values and suitability of TR values was proposed. Through this TR method, construction planned grounds located near railroad areas were selected and ground vibration measurement was conducted. Through natural frequency by MIDAS, vertical acceleration response, and ground frequency from measured vibration response, TR was calculated and vibration prediction was conducted. As a result of comparing acceleration response estimate applying TR and measured value of train vibration acceleration response, it was found that it was in 3.61%~37.1% of margin of error. Clear peak of 7.19~10.61Hz in KTX, Gyungeuisun, and cement train were confirmed.

Evaluation Index for the Supply Levels of Pedestrian Facilities in Residential Area Planning (택지개발지구에서 보행자도로 공급수준 평가지표 개발)

  • Choe, Jae-Seong;Hwang, Gyeong-Seong;Kim, Sang-Yeop;Jang, Yeong-Su;Park, Sin-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents an evaluation index for the supply levels of pedestrian facilities in residential area planning. The pedestrian facility supply levels reveal the quality of a residential area, and can be associated with the resident living standards and satisfaction, pedestrian safety levels, and the effectiveness of the construction cost. This research conducted multifaceted procedures for the index development, and these procedures start first by identifying dominant influencing factors on pedestrian travel demand by reviewing the final reports of site planning in more than eight already-completed residential development sites. Second, based on the Space Syntax model, which was initially developed in the UK by establishing statistical relationships among an integration index, population size (persons/day), and the total development area, this research formulated a set of pedestrian demand estimation models. Then these models were utilized in forming a pedestrian facility supply index by integrating the new models and their results with the available accepted practice in the residential planning sector. This was necessary because planners want to understand the total supply level of pedestrian facilities in a residential area during the initial design stage. Finally, to test the model validity in satisfying pedestrian satisfaction, the research included a resident satisfaction interview, and it was revealed that the evaluation index developed in this research could provide planners and engineers with more promising results. It is therefore anticipated that this research can be of service when designing pedestrian facilities in future residential area planning and design activities.

Development of the Operating Cost Estimation Models to Evaluate the Validity of Urban Railway Investment (도시철도 투자타당성 평가를 위한 운영비용 추정모형 개발)

  • KIM, Dong Kyu;PARK, Shin Hyoung;KIM, Ki Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2016
  • Since inaccurate demand estimation for recent urban rail construction may result in financial burden to cities, precise prediction for operating cost as well as construction costs is necessary to avoid or reduce budget loss of the local or central government. The operating cost is directly related to the public fare and affect a policy to determine the rate system. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an estimating model for reliable operating cost of urban railway. This study introduces a new model to estimate the operating cost with new variables. It provides a better prediction in accuracy and reliability compared to the existing model, considering the feature of urban railway. For verification of our model, railway operation data from a few cities for the last five years were comprehensively examined to determine variables that affect the operating cost. The operating cost was estimated in a dummy regression model using five independent variables, which were average distance between stations, daily trains distance, total passenger capacity of a train in a train, driving mode(manned/unmanned), and investment type(financial/private).

Influence of Delay Time on the Ground Vibration (발파공간 지연시차가 지반진동에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ji-Soo;Choi, Tae-Hong;Lee, Chang-Won
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2014
  • In this study, 16 test blastings had been carried out with different spacings, burdens, drilling lengths, and charges per delay for investigating the characteristics of ground vibration propagation, which depends on the delay time. From the tests, it was possible to derive a ground vibration equation. Using the equation, the characteristics of ground vibration could be investigated by analyzing the nomogram and predicting the Peak Particle Velocity (PPV), which are influenced by the delay time and the priming location. The trend of ground vibration change depending on the delay time was analyzed for the standards charges of 0.5, 1.6, 5, and 15 kg, which were suggested in "Blasting design and construction guidelines to road construction" by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. From the study, it would be possible to suggest a favorable vibration control method, which depends on the charge.

Relationship Identification of Diffusion Effect on High-speed Rail Demand Increase (확산효과를 통한 고속철도의 여객수요 증가현상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Junghwa;Ryu, Ingon;Choi, Keechoo;Lee, Myunghwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.539-546
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    • 2016
  • It is over 12 years since the launch of Korea Train eXpress (KTX) services. Demand for the KTX has been on the increase continuously but few studies have been produced related to this phenomenon. KTX passenger demand has been constantly increasing due to influencing factors such as the expansion of network, rise of oil prices, etc. In this study, our main focus is to verify that there are other types of elements that are causing an increase in KTX demand; our approach looks at changes in social and psychological aspect that have occurred due to the reduction of travel time and cost, as well as the imposition of a five-day workweek. In other words, we considered diffusion theory in the marketing area, which affects product selection and purchasing attitudes, as a key factor that is causing passenger demand to increase. That is to say that it is hypothesized that the demand for travel on the KTX has increased due to the train's utility, which is spread by the diffusion effect Therefore, the Bass diffusion model was applied to explain the dramatic increase in KTX passenger demand. Based on this foundation, it was also discussed how certain marketing strategies that incorporate the diffusion effect should be considered variously for sustainable management of rail transportation, while considering a steady passenger demand.

Developing a Latent Class Model Considering Heterogeneity in Mode Choice Behavior : A Case of Commuters in Seoul (수단선택의 이질성을 고려한 잠재계층모형(Latent Class Model) 구축: 서울시 통근자를 사례로)

  • Kim, Sung Hoo;Choo, Sangho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.44-57
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    • 2019
  • It is crucial to understand how people make decisions on mode choice and to accurately predict their behaviors in transportation planning. One of avenues for advancing modeling is, in particular, taking into account for taste heterogeneity in modeling that can incorporate different decision-making processes across group. In this study, we hypothesize that how people make decisions on mode choice would differ by destination in that land use characteristics are heterogeneous by zone even if zones are all in the same area. To this end, we apply Latent Class Modeling (LCM) to commute trips in Seoul by using 2010 household travel diary survey, investigate types of latent classes with the aid of characteristics of destination, and analyze how those classes differently response to factors. The LCM identifies two classes: in the first one, modal split of auto and public transit (bus and metro) is almost half-and-half and the trip destinations are characterized by relatively more residence facilities and less business/commercial facilities; in the second one, public transit has a notably high share and trip destinations are characterized by relatively more business/commercial facilities. In addition, it turns out that demographic and socio-economic variables affect mode choice differently by class.

Evaluating of Risk Order for Urban Road by User Cost Analysis (사용자비용분석을 통한 간선도로 위험순위 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Ha;Park, Tae-Hoon;Im, Jong-Moon;Park, Je-Jin;Yoon, Pan;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2005
  • Level of service(LOS) is a quantify measure describing operational conditions within a traffic stream, generally, in terms of such service measures as speed, travel time, freedom to measures, traffic interruptions, comfort and convenience. The LOS is leveled by highway facilities according to measure of effectiveness(MOE) and then used to evaluate performance capacity. The current evaluation of a urban road is performed by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety. Therefore, this paper presents a method for evaluation of risk order for urban road with new MOE, user cost analysis, considering both smooth traffic operation(congestion) and traffic safety(accident). The user coat is included traffic accident cast by traffic safety and traffic congestion cost by traffic operation. First of all, a number of traffic accident and accident rate by highway geometric is inferred from urban road traffic accident prediction model (Poul Greibe(2001)) Secondly, a user cost is inferred as traffic accident cast and traffic congestion cost is putting together. Thirdly, a method for evaluation of a urban road is inferred by user cost analysis. Fourthly a accident rate by segment predict with traffic accidents and data related to the accidents in $1996{\sim}1998$ on 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, predicted accident rate. Traffic accident cost predict using predicted accident rate, and, traffic congestion cost predict using predicted average traffic speed(KHCM). Fifthly, a risk order are presented by predicted user cost at each segment in urban roads. Finally, it si compared and evaluated that LOS of 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety and risk order by a method for evaluation of urban road in this paper.

Predicting Aggressive Driver Behavior Using a Driving Simulator (RTSA-DS) (차량 시뮬레이터를 이용한 난폭운전 행동예측)

  • Sin, Yong-Gyun;Ryu, Jun-Beom;Gang, Su-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2007
  • Aggressive driving is defined as 'driving behavior which intentionally incurs danger and distress to other drivers and passengers'. It increases the possibility of traffic accidents. Also, it threatens lives of drivers ana passengers and brings social and economic harm. According to previous studies. these aggressive behaviors are affected by not only the personality of drivers but also psychosocial factors, such as attitude, aggressive intention, time pressure, and traffic situations, However, most studies on aggressive behaviors conducted with field studies and surveys suggest correlation, not causal relationship. Therefore, in the current study tue authors measured individual factors-the driver's intention for aggressive driving and manipulated time pressure-to examine the interaction effects. As a result. the difference between conditions was significant depending on the level of aggressive intention and time pressure. These differences were also significant depending on the types of aggressive driving behaviors. In particular, the interaction effect of the driver's intention and time pressure on improper passing (cutting drivers off when passing) was significant. Finally the limitations of the current study and implications or using a car simulator are discussed.

Expressway Greenhouse Gas Reduction Effect Analysis According to the Electric Vehicle Supply (전기차 보급전망에 따른 고속도로 온실가스 저감효과 분석)

  • Lee, Jin Kak;Han, Dong Hee;Oh, Chang Kwon;Jung, Chul Ki;Oh, Kwan Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2013
  • This Study analyzed the electric car effect on the Korea Expressway System in terms of year 2020 $CO_2$ emission. The analysis was based on the green car dissemination goal by the government and year 2010 emission statistics. Major contents performed in the study area were as follows. First, the greenhouse gases emitted from the highways were found to be approximately 17.3 million tons of $CO_2$ as of 2010. Analysis showed the emission would be 17.4 million tons in 2015 and 16.2 million tons in 2020. The results in the pattern reflect the effect of O/D on the KTBD and the trend of traffic increase from 2015 to 2020 followed by decrease in 2020. Second, in the case of greenhouse gas emission with the anticipated supply of electric cars, the amount of emission in 2015 will be 17.1 million tons, which is about 2.0% reduction compared to the lack of introduction of electric cars. The analysis also showed that in 2020, the amount of emission will be 14.2 million tons, which indicates the effect of reduction is 12.8% compared to non implementation of the program.