The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Developing a Latent Class Model Considering Heterogeneity in Mode Choice Behavior : A Case of Commuters in Seoul

수단선택의 이질성을 고려한 잠재계층모형(Latent Class Model) 구축: 서울시 통근자를 사례로

  • Kim, Sung Hoo (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology) ;
  • Choo, Sangho (Dept. of Urban Design & Planning, Hongik University)
  • 김성후 (조지아공과대학 토목공학과) ;
  • 추상호 (홍익대학교 건설도시공학부)
  • Received : 2019.03.19
  • Accepted : 2019.04.08
  • Published : 2019.04.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

It is crucial to understand how people make decisions on mode choice and to accurately predict their behaviors in transportation planning. One of avenues for advancing modeling is, in particular, taking into account for taste heterogeneity in modeling that can incorporate different decision-making processes across group. In this study, we hypothesize that how people make decisions on mode choice would differ by destination in that land use characteristics are heterogeneous by zone even if zones are all in the same area. To this end, we apply Latent Class Modeling (LCM) to commute trips in Seoul by using 2010 household travel diary survey, investigate types of latent classes with the aid of characteristics of destination, and analyze how those classes differently response to factors. The LCM identifies two classes: in the first one, modal split of auto and public transit (bus and metro) is almost half-and-half and the trip destinations are characterized by relatively more residence facilities and less business/commercial facilities; in the second one, public transit has a notably high share and trip destinations are characterized by relatively more business/commercial facilities. In addition, it turns out that demographic and socio-economic variables affect mode choice differently by class.

교통계획에서 사람들의 수단선택 의사 결정과정을 이해하고 이를 토대로 수요예측의 정확성을 높이는 것은 매우 중요하다. 이를 위해 여러 계층마다 수단선택 영향요인들이 다르게 나타나는 이질성(taste heterogeneity)을 반영한 모형들이 개발되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 목적지의 토지이용 특성에 따라 수단선택에 미치는 요인의 영향력이 다를 것이라는 가설을 세우고 2010년 서울시 가구통행실태조사 자료를 활용하여 서울시내 출근통행에 대한 잠재계층모형을 분석하였다. 먼저 목적지의 토지이용 특성을 활용하여 수단선택에 대한 잠재계층을 구분하고, 각각의 잠재계층에 대한 수단선택 모형을 개발하였다. 잠재계층모형 추정결과, 서울시내 출근통행 수단선택의 경우 두 개의 잠재계층으로 분석되었다. 첫 번째 계층은 승용차와 대중교통의 수단분담이 비슷하고, 목적지가 상대적으로 도심이 아닌 주거시설이 많은 지역들이고, 두 번째 계층은 주로 대중교통의 분담률이 높고 목적지가 상대적으로 도심에 속하는 업무/상업시설이 많은 지역이다. 또한 이들 계층간의 수단선택 모형의 경우, 인구 및 사회경제지표들의 수단선택에 미치는 영향이 계층간에 차이가 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Anowar S., Yasmin S., Eluru N. and Miranda-Moreno L. F.(2014), "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, vol. 41, no. 5, pp.1013-1039. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-014-9522-9
  2. Bae Y. G., Jeong J. H. and Kim H. J.(2010), "Latent Class Analysis for Mode Choice Behavior," Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, vol. 28, no. 3, pp.99-107.
  3. Bae Y. G., Jeong J. H. and Kim H. J.(2011), "The Inflence of built environment om Mode Choice: Latent Class Approach," Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association, vol. 27, no. 2, pp.99-111.
  4. Ben-Akiva M. and Lerman S. R.(1985), Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, The MIT Press.
  5. Ben-Akiva M., McFadden D., Train K., Walker J., Bhat C., Bierlaire M. and Daly A.(2002), "Hybrid choice models: Progress and challenges," Marketing Letters, vol. 13, no. 3, pp.163-175. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020254301302
  6. Bhat C. R.(1997), "An endogenous segmentation mode choice model with an application to intercity travel," Transportation Science, vol. 31, no. 1, pp.34-48. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.31.1.34
  7. Carrasco J. A. and de Dios Ortuzar J.(2002), "Review and assessment of the nested logit model," Transport Reviews, vol. 22, no. 2, pp.197-218. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640110091224
  8. Cervero R. and Kockelman K.(1997), "Travel demand and the 3Ds: density, diversity, and design," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 2, no. 3, pp.199-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1361-9209(97)00009-6
  9. Choo S. and Mokhtarian P. L.(2004), "What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 38, no. 3, pp.201-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2003.10.005
  10. Ewing R. and Cervero R.(2010), "Travel and the built environment: A meta-analysis," Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 76, no. 3, pp.265-294. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766
  11. Greene W. H. and Hensher D. A.(2003), "A latent class model for discrete choice analysis: Contrasts with mixed logit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, vol. 37, no. 8, pp.681-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(02)00046-2
  12. Handy S., Cao X. and Mokhtarian P.(2005), "Correlation or causality between the built environment and travel behavior? Evidence from Northern California," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 10, no. 6, pp.427-444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2005.05.002
  13. Hensher D. A. and Greene W. H.(2003), "The mixed logit model: the state of practice," Transportation, vol. 30, no. 2, pp.133-176. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022558715350
  14. Johansson M. V., Heldt T. and Johansson P.(2006), "The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 40, no. 6, pp.507-525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2005.09.001
  15. Kim S. H. and Mokhtarian P. L.(2018), "Taste heterogeneity as an alternative form of endogeneity bias: Investigating the attitude-moderated effects of built environment and socio-demographics on vehicle ownership using latent class modeling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 116, pp.130-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.05.020
  16. Kim S., Choo S., Kim J. and Han J.(2018), "An Analyzing Factors to Affect Trip Mode Chaining Behavior Using Travel Diary Survey Data in Seoul," Journal of the Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems, vol. 17, no. 1, pp.55-70.
  17. Lanzini P. and Khan S. A.(2017), "Shedding light on the psychological and behavioral determinants of travel mode choice: A meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, vol. 48, pp.13-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trf.2017.04.020
  18. Popovich N. D. and Handy S.(2015), "Downtown, strip centers, and big-box stores: Mode choice by shopping destination type in Davis, California," Journal of Transport and Land Use, vol. 8, no. 2, pp.149-170.
  19. Reilly M. and Landis J.(2003), The influence of built-form and land use on mode choice: Evidence from the 1996 Bay Area Travel Survey, Institute of Urban and Regional Development at UC Berkeley.
  20. Sun B., Ermagun A. and Dan B.(2017), "Built environmental impacts on commuting mode choice and distance: Evidence from Shanghai," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 52, pp.441-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.06.001
  21. The Korea Transport Institute(2011), 2010 Interregional Passenger OD Travel Survey, available at https://www.ktdb.go.kr/www/contents.do?key=60.
  22. The Korea Transport Institute(2012), 2011 National Transport Demand Survey and Database Construction Project, available at https://www.ktdb.go.kr/www/contents.do?key=24.
  23. Train K. E.(2009), Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press.
  24. Vij A. and Walker J. L.(2014), "Preference endogeneity in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, vol. 64, pp.90-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2014.02.008
  25. Vij A. and Walker J. L.(2016), "How, when and why integrated choice and latent variable models are latently useful," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, vol. 90, pp.192-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2016.04.021
  26. Vij A., Carrel A. and Walker J. L.(2013), "Incorporating the influence of latent modal preferences on travel mode choice behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 54, pp.164-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.07.008
  27. Walker J. L. and Li J.(2007), "Latent lifestyle preferences and household location decisions," Journal of Geographical Systems, vol. 9, no. 1, pp.77-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-006-0030-0
  28. Zhang M.(2004), "The role of land use in travel mode choice: Evidence from Boston and Hong Kong," Journal of the American Planning Association, vol. 70, no. 3, pp.344-360. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944360408976383