• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통수요예측

Search Result 260, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

The impacts of high speed train on the regional economy of Korea (고속철도(KTX) 개통이 지역경제에 미치는 영향 분석과 시사점)

  • Park, Mi Suk;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.13-25
    • /
    • 2016
  • High-speed railway (Korea Train Express) has had a deep impact on the regional economy of Korea. Current high-speed rail research is mostly theoretical, there is a lack of quantitative research using a precise algorithm to study the effect of high-speed railway on the regional economy. This paper analyses the influence of high-speed rail on the regional economy, with a focus on the Daegu area. Quantitative analysis using department store indexes and regional medical records is performed to calculate the economic influence of high-speed rail. The result shows that high-speed railway effects the regional economy though regional consumption growth and medical care trends.

A Study on the Selection of New Town Area Using GIS -in Mongolia - (GIS를 이용한 신도시개발 가능지역 선정 연구 -몽골지역을 대상으로-)

  • Choi, Byoung-Gil;Na, Young-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.273-280
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study aims to research into a plan for the spatial design on the major facilities in new-town region in Mongolia by using the spatial analytical technique in GIS. In case of Mongolian region, the demand for new-town development is rapidly increasing around Ulaanbaatar, where is the capital. On the other hand, the adequately relevant ground or the spatial-design technique is failing to be applied. This study extracted the region available for developing new down by using spatial analytical technique in GIS, and researched into the spatial-design plan for housing complex, filtration plant, sewage disposal plant, power plant, general park, crematory. The housing complex in the targeted region could be known to be adequate to be positioned around watercourse and road. It could be known to be adequate for filtration plant, which is the source of drinking water, to be located in the upper-stream region of a river, which is secured good quality of water, and for sewage disposal plant to be located in the lower-stream region available for minimizing occurrence of contamination. It is judged to be required for a proposed site of power plant to be located in the upper-stream region, for the park unit, which is space of the living culture, to be repaired and expanded the existing facilities, and for traffic network to be expanded through predicting demand along with new-town development. It is judged to be probably needed to be reflected even the flexible aspect for changing design through surveying the feasibility and economic efficiency on the future spatial design.

A Mode Choice Model with Market Segmentation of Beneficiary Group of New Transit Facility (신교통수단 수혜자의 시장분할을 고려한 수단선택 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Duck Nyung;Choi, A Reum;Hwang, Jae-Min;Kim, Dong-Kyu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.2
    • /
    • pp.667-677
    • /
    • 2013
  • The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

Estimating Climate Pollutants Emissions and Service Demands considering Socio-economic Change: Residential·Commercial Sector, Transportation Sector, Industrial Sector (사회경제 변화를 고려한 서비스 수요 및 기후변화 유발물질 배출량 예측: 가정·상업부문, 교통부문, 산업부문을 중심으로)

  • Park, Jin-Han;Lee, Dong-Kun;Lee, Mi-Jin;Park, Chan;Jung, Tae-Yong;Kim, Sang-Kyun;Hong, Sung-Chul;Baek, So-Jin;Lee, Jang-Hoon
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.291-302
    • /
    • 2015
  • Vulnerability due to climate change depends on the concentration of carbon dioxide emissions over several upcoming decades. The objective of this study is to estimate the concentration of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in 2100, while also accounting for expected socio-economic changes in Korea. First, we intend to prepare scenarios for possible socioeconomic changes in Korea: business as usual (BAU), high growth and low growth. Secondly, we aim to predict services demands in residential?commercial sector, transportation sector, industrial sector for each scenarios. Finally, the emissions of LLGHG and SLCP will be estimated on the basis of the predicted service demands. The study results project that in Korea, LLGHG emissions will be approximately $660Mt\;CO_2\;eq$. and SLCP emissions will be approximately 3.81 Mt, -including black carbon (BC) by 2100. The transportation and industrial sectors are the major source for LLGHG emissions, and the residential and commercial sector serve as the SLCP source. Later, additional studies on the cost and benefit of mitigation should be carried out by comparing the reduced use of materials that cause climate change as a result of reduction policies and the socioeconomic cost.

A Study on the Regional Economic Revitalization Plan in Henan Province, China under 'One Belt and One Road' - Focusing on '5 Region' and '4 Road' ('일대일로' 하에 중국 허난성의 지역 경제 활성화 방안에 관한 연구 - '5 지역'과 '4 로'를 중심으로)

  • Wang, Kun;Zhang, Yizhou;Bae, Ki-Hyung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.21 no.8
    • /
    • pp.424-441
    • /
    • 2021
  • The research is to analyze current situation of the coordinated development of "5 Region" and "4 Road" in Henan Province and put forward problems about the coordinated development of the "5 Region" and "4 Road" with the inland geographical location in China by drawing on the experience of the coordinated development of related industries in developed countries and regions based on China's "One Belt And One Road". According to the problems, a plan for the promotion of opening up to the outside world is provided. Through research, the following problems are found: First, the superposition advantage of five districts' and "four roads' has not been fully brought into play. Second, the collaborative linkage mechanism is not sound. Third, modern comprehensive transportation hub facilities are not fully completed. Fourth, the industrial support capacity is insufficient. Fifth, basic support is difficult to meet the needs of future development. The plan is as follows: First, building a top-level strategic platform and improve the policy support system. Second, we need to enhance the advantages of the four Silk Roads and accelerate their interconnected development. Third, establishing a coordination and mutual assistance mechanism to stimulate the superposition effect of industrial clusters. The significance of this study is that it can be used as research data to predict the future direction of China's "One Belt and One Road" policy and enlightenment to stimulate the economic revitalization of inland provinces.

Comparison of Liquefaction Assessment Results with regard to Geotechnical Information DB Construction Method for Geostatistical Analyses (지반 보간을 위한 지반정보DB 구축 방법에 따른 액상화 평가 결과 비교)

  • Kang, Byeong-Ju;Hwang, Bum-Sik;Bang, Tea-Wan;Cho, Wan-Jei
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.38 no.4
    • /
    • pp.59-70
    • /
    • 2022
  • There is a growing interest in evaluating earthquake damage and determining disaster prevention measures due to the magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Pohang, Korea. Since the liquefaction phenomena occurred extensively in the residential area as a result of the earthquake, there was a demand for research on liquefaction phenomenon evaluation and liquefaction disaster prediction. Liquefaction is defined as a phenomenon where the strength of the ground is completely lost due to a sudden increase in excess pore water pressure caused due to large dynamic stress, such as an earthquake, acting on loose sand particles in a short period of time. The liquefaction potential index, which can identify the occurrence of liquefaction and predict the risk of liquefaction in a targeted area, can be used to create a liquefaction hazard map. However, since liquefaction assessment using existing field testing is predicated on a single borehole liquefaction assessment, there has been a representative issue for the whole targeted area. Spatial interpolation and geographic information systems can help to solve this issue to some extent. Therefore, in order to solve the representative problem of geotechnical information, this research uses the kriging method, one of the geostatistical spatial interpolation techniques, and constructs a geotechnical information database for liquefaction and spatial interpolation. Additionally, the liquefaction hazard map was created for each return period using the constructed geotechnical information database. Cross validation was used to confirm the accuracy of this liquefaction hazard map.

A Comparison of Single and Multi-matrix Models for Bird Strike Risk Assessment (단일 및 다중 매트릭스 모델의 비교를 통한 항공기-조류 충돌 위험성 평가 모델 분석)

  • Hong, Mi-Jin;Kim, Myun-Sik;Moon, Young-Min;Choi, Jin-Hwan;Lee, Who-Seung;Yoo, Jeong-Chil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.624-635
    • /
    • 2019
  • Bird strike accidents, a collision between aircraft and birds, have been increasing annually due to an increasing number of aircraft operating each year to meet heavier demand for air traffic. As such, many airports have conducted studies to assess and manage bird strike risks effectively by identifying and ranking bird species that can damage aircraft based on the bird strike records. This study was intended to investigate the bird species that were likely to threaten aircraft and compare and discuss the risk of each species estimated by the single-matrix and multi-matrix risk assessment models based on the Integrated Flight Information Service (IFIS) data collected in Gimpo, Gimhae and Jeju Airports in South Korea from 2005 to 2013. We found that there was a difference in the assessment results between the two models. The single-matrix model estimated 2 species and 6 taxa in Gimpo and Gimhae Airports and 2 species and 5 taxa in Jeju Airport to have the risk score above "high," whereas the multi-matrix model estimated 3 species and 5 taxa in Gimpo Airport, 4 species and 5 taxa in Gimhae Airport, and 2 species and 3 taxa in Jeju Airport to have the risk score above "very high." Although both models estimated the similar high-risk species in Gimpo and Gimhae Airports, there was a significant difference in Jeju Airport. Gimpo and Gimhae Airports are near the estuary of a river, which is an excellent habitat for large and heavy waterbirds. On the other hand, Jeju Airport is near the coast and the city center, and small and light bird species are mostly observed. Since collisions with such species have little effect on aircraft fuselage, the impact of common variables between the two models was small, and the additional variables caused a significant difference between the estimation by the two models.

A Study on the Construction Demand for Network of Metro Railroad in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Area - In the place of National Road No.7 - (부울경 광역도시철도망 구축 필요성에 관한 연구 - 국도 7호선 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Yang Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.31 no.6D
    • /
    • pp.771-778
    • /
    • 2011
  • Preliminary feasibility study on Busan metro line #1 in Yangsan line (Nopo-Bukjeong) depending on active volume of mass transportation between Yangsan city and Busan city was conducted. As the study concluded that it's valid, the necessity to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam Province is demanded to improve the transportation issues in Ungsang area vulnerable to metro service and to drive the balanced development between metropolitan cities. In addition, the volume of transportation depending on methods in target areas and road traffic assignment are surveyed to put a stress on the necessity to establish the metro railroad network. As the demand of transportation for alternative lines is predicted, the budget and benefits for construction for each alternative line set for the rough economic analysis depending on traffic volume for each method and traffic assignment results. The total project budget necessary for construction of proposal line #1 set as effective one among target three lines in this project is calculated in 794.32 billion won. Construction accounts for the most expensive in expenses for project and contingency allowances, purchases for vehicles and collateral expense are followed in orders. However, compensation for lands is not counted. In particular, according to economic analysis in proposal #1, ratio of benefit/cost (B/C) is 0.584, net present value (NPV) is -217.47 billion won, the internal rate of return (IRR) is analyzed in 0.604 %. At the current stage, it is not economically feasible, but the B/C is 0.737 in long-term upon construction of Yangsan line between Wolpheong and Yongdang which is proposal line #3. Therefore, when Busan metro basic plan is reorganized to aim the benefit of residents in Ungsang area vulnerable to the metro service, we think it must be necessary to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan which is proposal line #2 by extending the existing Sinjeong line and including this task line in high-ranked plan related to metro railroad.

An Analysis on the Characteristics of Each Phase's Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project (초고층 개발사업 추진을 위한 단계별 리스크 요인의 특성 분석)

  • Chun, Young-Jun;Cho, Joo-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.103-115
    • /
    • 2016
  • The 106 buildings of 200 meters' height or greater were completed around the world in 2015 (CTBUH, The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat). They beat every previous year on record, including the previous record high of 99 completions in 2014. This brings the total number of 200-meter-plus buildings in the world to 1,040, exceeding 1,000 for the first time in history and marking a 392% increase from the year 2000, when only 265 existed. South Korea recorded three completions during 2015 - improving slightly over 2014, in which it had one. This study focused on the fact that high-rise building development project risks have not reduced in Korea in spite of numerous studies and measures. And it attempted to examine whether existing studies and measures have been presented on the basis of the accurate analysis of existing studies and measures and classify and analyze the characteristics of each phase' s risk factors in the hope that its results would be one reference point as to the measure to prevent high-rise building development project risks in the future. A high-rise building development project is the high risk project as compared with the low-rise project. Because a high-rise development project takes long and is very sensitive to the changing environment. Therefore, in order to succeed the project it becomes necessary to effectively manage the risk involved in the process of the high-rise building development project. The result of this study can be used as the guideline to make the risk management system for the high-rise development project.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.33-45
    • /
    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.