Journal of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회지)

The Korean Society of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회)
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Estimating Climate Pollutants Emissions and Service Demands considering Socio-economic Change: Residential·Commercial Sector, Transportation Sector, Industrial Sector

사회경제 변화를 고려한 서비스 수요 및 기후변화 유발물질 배출량 예측: 가정·상업부문, 교통부문, 산업부문을 중심으로

  • Park, Jin-Han (Interdisciplinary Program in Landscape Architecture, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Kun (Dept. of Landscape Architecture and Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Mi-Jin (Graduate School, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Chan (Land Management and Urban Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ;
  • Jung, Tae-Yong (Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University) ;
  • Kim, Sang-Kyun (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Hong, Sung-Chul (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Baek, So-Jin (Dept. of Convergence Engineering Graduate School of Venture, Hoseo University) ;
  • Lee, Jang-Hoon (Dept. of Convergence Engineering Graduate School of Venture, Hoseo University)
  • 박진한 (서울대학교 협동과정 조경학) ;
  • 이동근 (서울대학교 조경지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 이미진 (서울대학교 대학원) ;
  • 박찬 (국토연구원) ;
  • 정태용 (연세대학교 국제학대학원) ;
  • 김상균 (국립환경과학원) ;
  • 홍성철 (국립환경과학원) ;
  • 백소진 (호서대학교 벤처대학원 융합공학과) ;
  • 이장훈 (호서대학교 벤처대학원 융합공학과)
  • Received : 2015.09.08
  • Accepted : 2015.12.24
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

Vulnerability due to climate change depends on the concentration of carbon dioxide emissions over several upcoming decades. The objective of this study is to estimate the concentration of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in 2100, while also accounting for expected socio-economic changes in Korea. First, we intend to prepare scenarios for possible socioeconomic changes in Korea: business as usual (BAU), high growth and low growth. Secondly, we aim to predict services demands in residential?commercial sector, transportation sector, industrial sector for each scenarios. Finally, the emissions of LLGHG and SLCP will be estimated on the basis of the predicted service demands. The study results project that in Korea, LLGHG emissions will be approximately $660Mt\;CO_2\;eq$. and SLCP emissions will be approximately 3.81 Mt, -including black carbon (BC) by 2100. The transportation and industrial sectors are the major source for LLGHG emissions, and the residential and commercial sector serve as the SLCP source. Later, additional studies on the cost and benefit of mitigation should be carried out by comparing the reduced use of materials that cause climate change as a result of reduction policies and the socioeconomic cost.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Grant : 미래 동아시아의 사회경제 변화를 고려한 장단기 체류 기후변화 유발물질 배출 특성규명

Supported by : 환경부