KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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A Mode Choice Model with Market Segmentation of Beneficiary Group of New Transit Facility

신교통수단 수혜자의 시장분할을 고려한 수단선택 모형 개발

  • 김덕녕 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 최아름 (삼성SDS) ;
  • 황재민 (서울대학교 건설환경공학부) ;
  • 김동규 (서울대학교 건설환경종합연구소)
  • Received : 2012.03.10
  • Accepted : 2012.12.17
  • Published : 2013.03.30
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Abstract

The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

신교통수단의 도입은 통행 대안 간의 수단분담률에 영향을 미친다. 그러나 수단분담률을 추정하는 데에 일반적으로 사용되는 다항로짓 모형은 통행자 선택의 다양성을 반영하기 어렵기 때문에 수단선택 특성을 정확하게 파악하는 데에 한계가 있다. 이러한 문제는 교통수단의 도입 효과를 과다 또는 과소추정하는 결과를 야기하며, 이는 심각한 사회적 손실을 초래할 수 있다. 본 연구는 선호의 동질성 문제를 극복할 수 있는 방법론을 모색하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 전체모집단을 직접수혜자와 간접수혜자로 구분하는 시장분할 구조를 적용하여 선호의 이질성을 반영할 수 있도록 한다. 제주도의 조사 자료를 활용하여 수단 선택 모형이 추정되며, 통계적 검정이 수행된다. 분석 결과, 신교통수단의 통행특성이 고급화됨에 따라 도심부에 거주하는 직접수혜자의 수단 전환율이 증가하는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구는 수단전환 패턴의 다양성을 반영함으로써 신교통수단 도입시 수요예측의 정확성을 제고하는 데에 기여할 것으로 사료된다.

Keywords

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