The very fact that so many of us are here to participate in this conference on Operations Research is an indicator of the importance we attach to this relatively new and still expanding field. All of us recognize that Operations Research techniques are especially useful tools in problem solving in business, Government and the military. A discussion of the role of Operations Research and the related field of Systems Analysis in national defense policy and programming decision processes seems especially appropriate at the opening session of this conference, As you know, Operations Research as an organized form of research first found application in the review of individual military weapons systems and their effectiveness just over forty years ago. From that relatively narrow beginning has evolved a discipline whose future exploitation and utility you will explore over the next several days. I plan to review very briefly the historical development of Operations Research and Systems Analysis as tools in the defense decision-making process. Then, I will give you an overview of their application to today's military and defense problem solving by discussing the use of these techniques at the headquarters level by the United States Navy, Obviously, in such a brief period, I cannot cover all applications, specific techniques, or all of the groups involved in such a complex process. A review of the historical development of Operations Research/Systems Analysts reveals that the use of the basic concepts of Operations Research is not new; it originated with the first attempts to use the scientific approach to solve problems. We are still seeking, through modern analysis, to answer the three questions posed by John Dewey in his examination of the problem solving process in 1910.'1 - What is the problem? - What are the alternatives? - Which alternative is best? As I noted earlier, Operations Research, as an organized form of research, began in Great Britain in the late 1930s with the review of individual weapons systems.

This paper presents the FORTRAN program for expected damage by surface-to-surface weapons. One of the methods can be used to determine the effectiveness of general purpose (GP) bombs and cluster weapons against single unitary targets, linear targets, area targets, and areas of unitary target elements, The effectiveness index is in terms of fractional damage ($F_D$) or the number of volleys ($N_V$).

북한경제는 계획경제가 갖는 기본적 제난점을 바탕에 두고 이에 지나친 외자의존적발전, 자연자족중공업위주의 발전이라는 성장전략을 수행해 왔다. 이러한 성장전략의 모순의 노정으로 북한경제는 앞으로 상황의 급변이 없는 한 침체국면에 빠져들 것이다.

Weapon System effectiveness indices are a key factor to the cost-effectiveness analysis in the process of allocating national resources in an optimal fashion. First part of this paper reviews the need of weapon -effectiveness indices, historical development of methodologies on military strength evaluation with various models of indices, and the interrelation-ship between weapon effectiveness indices and war-game. Second part of this paper analyzes the concepts and usage of the already developed methodologies, i .e., index of power, weapon lethality index (W.L.I.), index of fire power potential (I.F.P), fire power potential (F. P. P), and weapon effectiveness indices/weighted unit value (W. E. I/W. U. V.). Finally, weaknesses and limits of these methodologies are compared and evaluated. Result of this research shows that the W. L. I, I. F. P, and F. P. P seem to possess many non-scientific or ambiguous facets, but the W. E. I/W. U. V method produces more detailed, inclusive, and reasonable indices. The paper concludes with the emphasis on the importance of the provision of the theoretical bases to develop effectiveness indices which can be used to evaluate Korean weapon systems, and the early establishment of a specialized research group to manage and develop methodologies on the weapon effectiveness indices.

The duel is an extreme case of game situations. The duel is of zero-sum type, but a infinite game. This duel situation appears not only in extreme competitive situations such as war, but also in economic situations such as bidding. The study on duel situations started from late 1940's, but considerable contributions have been made in 1960's by Ancker, Restrepo, Yanovskaya, Kimeldorf among others. Specially Kimeldorf recently has made big contribution in developing the theory of the game-theoretic duel. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and systemize the theory of the game-theoretic duel. In the first part, noisy duel situations shall be dealt with, and in the second part, silent duel shall follow. Finally these two situations shall be generalized in the form of continuous firing model.

GERT modeling is in a dynamic stage of development. One of the most exciting and useful new developments in GERT modeling and Simulation is the modeling technology and computer package called Q-GERT. As the name implies, this provides the capability to analyze complex networks of queueing systems. The modeling approach is quite similar to GERT, but includes queue nodes called 'Select' nodes, which allow a considerable amount of logic to be included in the analysis of complex networks of multichannel, multiphase queueing systems should find the Q-OERT package of considerable interest.