• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.201-210
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• 2008

The government employment statistics show the close comovement of the whole domestic unemployment rate with the youth unemployment rate for the past 10 years, implying the dominant influence of the unemployment of the youth age. This study investigates the structure of the short-run variation and the process of the long-run adjustment in the unemployment rates of the youth and middle ages by formulating the dynamic equation system. The estimation result consistently reflects the vulnerability of the youth class in the aggravation of the employment condition. The effect of exogenous changes is found to be persistent in the unemployment rates of both ages, which appear to have similar structures of the long-run time path. However, the youth unemployment rate turns out to have a relatively long adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.27-53
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• 2019

I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China's tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.107-116
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• 2001

The relatively rapid rising trends of crime rates in marine situations leads to social concerns in Korea. This study reviews some theoretical backgrounds of the economics of crime and apply econometric models to Korean marine crimes. We find that there is a positive relationship between marine crime rates and unemployment rates in Korea and the degree of the relationship is higher in the 1990s' in comparison with the results of 1970s' and 1980s'. This findings are compatible with the previous theoretical researches in advanced countries. These findings show that recently the structure of our economy and the economic behaviors of economic agents in Korea have been similar to those of the advanced economies. Therefore this study shows that there exists the additional social costs of economic depression by causing the social crimes and the necessity of public policies to reduce unemployment rates would be higher.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.135-145
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• 2019

Prolonged recession has caused the youth unemployment rate in Korea to remain at a high level of approximately 10% for years. Recently, the number of unemployed Koreans in their 30s and 40s has shown an upward trend. To expand the government's employment promotion and unemployment benefits from youth-centered policies to diverse age groups, including people in their 30s and 40s, prediction models for different age groups are required. Thus, we aimed to develop unemployment prediction models for specific age groups (30s and 40s) using available unemployment rates provided by Statistics Korea and Google search queries related to them. We first estimated multiple linear regressions (Model 1) using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average approach with relevant unemployment rates. Then, we introduced Google search queries to obtain improved models (Model 2). For both groups, consequently, Model 2 additionally using web queries outperformed Model 1 during training and predictive periods. This result indicates that a web search query is still significant to improve the unemployment predictive models for Koreans. For practical application, this study needs to be furthered but will contribute to obtaining age-wise unemployment predictions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.61-69
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• 2002

The relatively rapid rising trend of crime rates in marine situations leads to social concerns in Korea. This study reviews some theoretical backgrounds of the economics of crime and applies econometric models to Korean marine crimes. This research finds that there is a negative relationship between marine crime rates and unemployment rates and a positive relationship between the price level and marine crimes in Korea. The other finding results are that unemployment elasticities are higher in the 1980s and price elasticities are higher in th 1990s in comparison with the results of the other periods. This findings are incompatible with the previous theoretical researches in advanced countries. These findings show that In rapidly growing economy, marine crime occurrence is proportional to marine economic activity frequency. This result may reflect that marine crimes are different from land crimes.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.149-160
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• 2002

The relatively rapid rising trends of crime rates in marine situations leads to social concerns in Korea. This study reviews some theoretical backgrounds of the economics of crime and apply econometric models to Korean marine crimes. We find that there is a negative relationship between marine crime rates and unemployment rates and positive relationship between price level and marine crime in Korea. And also we find that unemployment elasticities are higher in the 1980s' and price elasticities are higher in th 90's in comparison with the results of the other periods. This findings are incompatible with the previous theoretical researches in advanced countries. This findings show that in rapidly growing economy, marine crime occurrence is proportional to marine economic activity frequency. This result may reflect that marine crimes are different from land crimes.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.79-100
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• 2015

In spite of the various government policies to increase the jobs and to improve the employment environment, the unemployment rate has not reduced. The aims of this study are to analyze the structural mismatch(especially geographical mismatch) between job opening and job seeking, and thus to comprehend more deeply the factors affecting unemployment rates of economic regions in Korea. For the period of 2008~2013, the unemployment rates caused by geographical mismatches between job opening and job seeking have been increased steadily. For Chungcheong, Dongnam and Honam economic region, geographical mismatches of low-educated and low-skilled jobs showed relatively quite high, indicating that the job seeker have a strong tendency of preferring certain areas in looking for their jobs. It means that the job seeker can get a job only to move the other areas within an economic region. However, for Capital region, which is the largest job seekers in Korea, geographical mismatches in all types of jobs showed very quite low. So, it is very difficult for the job seeker to escape from unemployment when changing the other areas in looking for a job in Capital region. The results of this study gives an important implication that a nationwide uniform unemployment policy may not be effective to reduce unemployment conditions, and a differentiated unemployment policy should be established in considering the characteristics of geographic mismatches by the types of job in terms of the level of education and skill for each economic region.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.1-31
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• 2016

This paper investigates the cyclical behavior of UI benefit take-up rate, the share of unemployed persons who are eligible for job seekers' allowances(JSA) and actually receive them. Using Korea's Employment Insurance DB, it also identifies the factors linked to the decision to take up job seekers' allowances. The results show that the take-up rate is countercyclical and leads both unemployment rate and Coincident Composite Index cyclical component by 6 months and is positively correlated with replacement rate and benefit duration, suggesting that extending benefit duration and raising benefit level can boost benefit claims to increase take-up rates in Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.635-650
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• 2010

We model surrender rates with a few explanatory variables such as the difference between reference marke rates and product crediting rates, the policy age since the contract was issued, unemployment rates, economy growth rates, and seasonal effects using logit function. We investigate the policy holder surrender behaviors of US single premium deferred annuities(SPDA) and Korean interest indexed annuities under extreme financial conditions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.11-23
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• 2011

Robust unit root tests are developed for dynamic panels consisting of TAR processes. The test statistics are all based on diverse combinations of individual t-type tests for significance of TAR coefficients. Limiting null distributions are established. A Monte-Carlo experiment compares the proposed tests. The tests are applied to a panel data set of Canadian unemployment rates which show asymmetric features as well as having outliers.