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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2008.21.2.201

Estimating the Structure of the Short and the Long Run Variations in the Domestic Youth Unemployment  

Kim, Tae-Ho (충북대학교 정보통계학과)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.21, no.2, 2008 , pp. 201-210 More about this Journal
Abstract
The government employment statistics show the close comovement of the whole domestic unemployment rate with the youth unemployment rate for the past 10 years, implying the dominant influence of the unemployment of the youth age. This study investigates the structure of the short-run variation and the process of the long-run adjustment in the unemployment rates of the youth and middle ages by formulating the dynamic equation system. The estimation result consistently reflects the vulnerability of the youth class in the aggravation of the employment condition. The effect of exogenous changes is found to be persistent in the unemployment rates of both ages, which appear to have similar structures of the long-run time path. However, the youth unemployment rate turns out to have a relatively long adjustment process to the long-run equilibrium.
Keywords
Youth unemployment; time path; asymptotic stability; three stage least squares estimation;
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