• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty theory

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A Fuzzy-based Risk Assessment using Uncertainty Model (불확실성 모델을 사용한 퍼지 위험도분석)

  • Choi Hyun-Ho;Seo Jong-Won;Jung Pyung-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.473-476
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a systematic risk assessment procedure with uncertainty modeling for general construction projects. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed methods with uncertainty modeling is able to apply to all the construction projects inherent in lots of uncertain risk events. The fuzzy set theory is adopted to enhance risk assessment to effectively handle the vague and dynamic phenomenon of an event Therefore, the fuzzy-based risk assessment is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.

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A Linear Reservoir Model with Kslman Filter in River Basin (Kalman Filter 이론에 의한 하천유역의 선형저수지 모델)

  • 이영화
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.349-356
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a linear reservoir model with Kalman filter using Kalman filter theory which removes a physical uncertainty of :ainfall-runoff process. A linear reservoir model, which is the basic model of Kalman filter, is used to calculate runoff from rainfall in river basin. A linear reservoir model with Kalman filter is composed of a state-space model using a system model and a observation model. The state-vector of system model in linear. The average value of the ordinate of IUH for a linear reservoir model with Kalman filter is used as the initial value of state-vector. A .linear reservoir model with Kalman filter shows better results than those by linear reserevoir model, and decreases a physical uncertainty of rainfall-runoff process in river basin.

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Non-stochastic interval factor method-based FEA for structural stress responses with uncertainty

  • Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Soomi
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.62 no.6
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    • pp.703-708
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    • 2017
  • The goal of this study is to evaluate behavior uncertainties of structures by using interval finite element analysis based on interval factor method as a specific non-stochastic tool. The interval finite element method, i.e., interval FEM, is a finite element method that uses interval parameters in situations where it is not possible to get reliable probabilistic characteristics of the structure. The present method solves the uncertainty problems of a 2D solid structure, in which structural characteristics are assumed to be represented as interval parameters. An interval analysis method using interval factors is applied to obtain the solution. Numerical applications verify the intuitive effectiveness of the present method to investigate structural uncertainties such as displacement and stress without the application of probability theory.

A servo design method for MIMO Wiener systems with nonlinear uncertainty

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Kunimatsu, Sadaaki;Fujii, Takao
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.06a
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    • pp.1960-1965
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents theory for stability analysis and design of a servo system for a MIMO Wiener system with nonlinear uncertainty. The Wiener system consists of a linear time-invariant system(LTI) in cascade with a static nonlinear part ${\psi}$(y) at the output. We assume that the uncertain static nonlinear part is sector bounded and decoupled. In this research, we treat the static nonlinear part as multiplicative uncertainty by dividing the nonlinear part ${\psi}$(y) into ${\phi}$(y) := ${\psi}$(y)-y and y, and then we reduce this stabilizing problem to a Lur'e problem. As a result, we show that the servo system with no steady state error for step references can be constructed for the Wiener system.

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Robust Control of Uncertainty Systems by Fuzzy Auto-Tuning (Fuzzy 자동동조에 의한 불확실성 공정의 견실제어)

  • Ryu, Y.G.;Choi, J.N.;Kim, J.K.;Mo, Y.S.;Hwang, H.S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07b
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    • pp.504-506
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we propose a method which control parametric uncertainty systems using PID controller by fuzzy auto tuning. We get the error and the error change rate of plant output correspond to the initial value of parameter using the Ziegler-Nickols tuning and determine the new proportional gain$(K_p)$ and the integral time $(T_i)$ from fuzzy tuner by the error and error change rate of plant output as a membership function of fuzzy theory. The Fuzzy Auto-tuning algorithm for PID controller operate to adapt variable parameter of plant in parametric uncertainty systems. It is shown this method considerably improve the transient response at computer simulation.

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A Study of Combinative Index for Conflict Resolution (상충 해결을 위한 결합지수 연구)

  • 고희병;이수홍;이만호
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.319-326
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    • 2000
  • Expert systems using uncertain and ambiguous knowledge are not of the recent interests about uncertainty problem for performing inference similar to the decision making of a human expert. Human factors on rule-based systems often involve uncertain information. Expert systems had been used the methods of conflict resolution in a rule conflict situation, but this methods not properly solved the rule conflict. If a human expert appends a new rule to an original rule base, the rule base rightly causes a rule conflict. In this paper, the problem of rule conflict is regarded as one in which uncertainty of information is fundamentally involved. In the reduction of problem with uncertainty, we propose an enhanced rule ordering method, which improve the rule ordering method using Dempster-Shafer theory. We also propose a combinative index, which involve human factors of experts decision making.

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A measuring system for determination of a cantilever beam support moment

  • Loktionov, Askold P.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.431-439
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    • 2017
  • This investigation is aimed to develop a model of experimental-computation determination of a support moment of a cantilever beam loaded with concentrated force at its end including the optimal choice of coordinates of deflection data points and parameters of transformation of deflection data in case of insufficient accuracy of the assignment of initial parameters (support settlement, angle of rotation of the bearing section) and cantilever beam length. The influence of distribution and characteristics of sensors on the cantilever beam on the accuracy of determining the support moment which improves in the course of transition from the uniform distribution of sensors to optimal non-uniform distribution is shown. On the basis of the theory of inverse problems the method of transformation reduction at numerical differentiation of deflection functions has been studied. For engineering evaluation formulae of uncertainty estimate to determine a support moment of a cantilever beam at predetermined uncertainty of measurements using sensors have been obtained.

Fault Prediction and Diagnosis Using Fuzzy Expert System (퍼지 전문가 시스템을 이용한 고장 예측 및 진단)

  • 최성운;이영석
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 1999
  • As the loss from break-downs and errors, which became more frequent with the growth of elaborateness, complexity and in scale of the plant and equipments, are enormous, the improvement in the reliability, maintenance, safety, and qualify become to have interest. The fault diagnosis is a systematic and unified method to find errors, which is based on the interpretation that data, subconsciously, have noises. But, as most of the methods are inferences based on binomial logic, the uncertainty is not correctly reflected. In this study, we suggest, to manage the uncertainty in the system efficiently on the point of predictive maintenance, We should use fuzzy expert system, which make the decision considering uncertainty possible by taking linguistical variable and fixed quantity by using the fuzzy theory concepts on the basis of an expert's direct observation and experience.

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Robust Stability of Large-Scale Uncertain Linear Systems with Time-Varying Delays (시변 시간지연을 갖는 대규모 불확정성 선형 시스템의 강인 안정성)

  • Kim, Jae-Sung;Cho, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Hee-Song;Kim, Jin-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.11b
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    • pp.463-465
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we consider the problem of robust stability of large-scale uncertain linear systems with time-varying delays. The considered uncertainties are both unstructured uncertainty which is only known its norm bound and structured uncertainty which is known its structure. Based on Lyapunov stability theorem and $H_{\infty}$ theory. we present uncertainty upper bound that guarantee the robust stability of systems. Especially, robustness bound are obtained directly without solving the Lyapunov equation. Finally, we show the usefulness of our results by numerical example.

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Position Control of Electro-Hydraulic Servo System Using $H_\infty$ ($H_\infty$제어에 의한 전기${\cdot}$유압 서보계의 위치제어)

  • Park K. S.;Kim D. T.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, a controller design procedure for an electro-hydraulic positioning systems have developed using $H_\infty$ control theory. The generalized models and weighting functions for a multiplicative uncertainty modelling error is presented along with $H_\infty$ controller designs in order to investigate the robust stability and performance. The multiplicative uncertainty case is specifically suited for the design of an electro-hydraulic positioning control systems using $H_\infty$ control.

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