• Title/Summary/Keyword: total prediction error

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An Empirical Analysis on the Presumption of Public Apartment's Construction Cost in Housing Land Development Project (택지개발사업의 공공주택건설공사비 추정의 실증적 분석)

  • Kim, Seong-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2011
  • Providers haven't recently had a flexible construction cost estimation system to meet various needs of consumers about public housing. So the subject of this study is to estimate construction cost reasonably in early project stage of public housing and then develop reliable means which is able to support construction cost management and establish a adequate funding investment plan as a provider. In this study, Regression analysis was performed by the case on 20 public apartment complex which were designed from the first half of 2007 to the first half of 2008. A total construction cost of construction, civil engineering, machinery, elevator, land scape, electricity and communication work was used as one sample for increasing explanation and representativeness of the case. In addition, The total construction cost which is devided into design, contract and completion cost was variously analysed for increasing relevance of model and actual utilization. The result of estimation model based on a total construction cost set up completion and design cost showed that error rate is within 2%, which is a excellent result. The estimation model of the construction cost developed by this study is expected to estimate approximate construction cost which is adjacent real construction cost in early stage of the project by using some data.

Multi-task Learning Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Monitoring and Forecasting through Fusion of Geostationary Satellite Data and Numerical Forecasting Model Output (정지궤도 기상위성 및 수치예보모델 융합을 통한 Multi-task Learning 기반 태풍 강도 실시간 추정 및 예측)

  • Lee, Juhyun;Yoo, Cheolhee;Im, Jungho;Shin, Yeji;Cho, Dongjin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.5_3
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    • pp.1037-1051
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    • 2020
  • The accurate monitoring and forecasting of the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) are able to effectively reduce the overall costs of disaster management. In this study, we proposed a multi-task learning (MTL) based deep learning model for real-time TC intensity estimation and forecasting with the lead time of 6-12 hours following the event, based on the fusion of geostationary satellite images and numerical forecast model output. A total of 142 TCs which developed in the Northwest Pacific from 2011 to 2016 were used in this study. The Communications system, the Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) Meteorological Imager (MI) data were used to extract the images of typhoons, and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) provided by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was employed to extract air and ocean forecasting data. This study suggested two schemes with different input variables to the MTL models. Scheme 1 used only satellite-based input data while scheme 2 used both satellite images and numerical forecast modeling. As a result of real-time TC intensity estimation, Both schemes exhibited similar performance. For TC intensity forecasting with the lead time of 6 and 12 hours, scheme 2 improved the performance by 13% and 16%, respectively, in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) when compared to scheme 1. Relative root mean squared errors(rRMSE) for most intensity levels were lessthan 30%. The lower mean absolute error (MAE) and RMSE were found for the lower intensity levels of TCs. In the test results of the typhoon HALONG in 2014, scheme 1 tended to overestimate the intensity by about 20 kts at the early development stage. Scheme 2 slightly reduced the error, resulting in an overestimation by about 5 kts. The MTL models reduced the computational cost about 300% when compared to the single-tasking model, which suggested the feasibility of the rapid production of TC intensity forecasts.

Prediction of Shear Wave Velocity on Sand Using Standard Penetration Test Results : Application of Artificial Neural Network Model (표준관입시험결과를 이용한 사질토 지반의 전단파속도 예측 : 인공신경망 모델의 적용)

  • Kim, Bum-Joo;Ho, Joon-Ki;Hwang, Young-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2014
  • Although shear wave velocity ($V_s$) is an important design factor in seismic design, the measurement is not usually made in typical field investigation due to time and economic limitations. In the present study, an investigation was made to predict sand $V_s$ based on the standard penetration test (SPT) results by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. A total of 650 dataset composed of SPT-N value ($N_{60}$), water content, fine content, specific gravity for input data and $V_s$ for output data was used to build and train the ANN model. The sensitivity analysis was then performed for the trained ANN to examine the effect of the input variables on the $V_s$. Also, the ANN model was compared with seven existing empirical models on the performance. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that the effect of the SPT-N value on $V_s$ is significantly greater compared to other input variables. Also, when compared with the empirical models using Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the ANN model was found to exhibit the highest prediction capability.

Prediction of the Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters of Fresh Coarse Italian Ryegrass Haylage using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

  • Kim, Ji Hye;Park, Hyung Soo;Choi, Ki Choon;Lee, Sang Hoon;Lee, Ki-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.350-357
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    • 2017
  • Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a rapid and accurate method for analyzing the quality of cereals, and dried animal forage. However, one limitation of this method is its inability to measure fermentation parameters in dried and ground samples because they are volatile, and therefore, respectively lost during the drying process. In order to overcome this limitation, in this study, fresh coarse haylage was used to test the potential of NIRS to accurately determine chemical composition and fermentation parameters. Fresh coarse Italian ryegrass haylage samples were scanned at 1 nm intervals over a wavelength range of 680 to 2500 nm, and optical data were recorded as log 1/reflectance. Spectral data, together with first- and second-order derivatives, were analyzed using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate regressions; scatter correction procedures (standard normal variate and detrend) were used in order to reduce the effect of extraneous noise. Optimum calibrations were selected based on their low standard error of cross validation (SECV) values. Further, ratio of performance deviation, obtained by dividing the standard deviation of reference values by SECV values, was used to evaluate the reliability of predictive models. Our results showed that the NIRS method can predict chemical constituents accurately (correlation coefficient of cross validation, $R_{cv}^2$, ranged from 0.76 to 0.97); the exception to this result was crude ash ($R_{cv}^2=0.49$ and RPD = 2.09). Comparison of mathematical treatments for raw spectra showed that second-order derivatives yielded better predictions than first-order derivatives. The best mathematical treatment for DM, ADF, and NDF, respectively was 2, 16, 16, whereas the best mathematical treatment for CP and crude ash, respectively was 2, 8, 8. The calibration models for fermentation parameters had low predictive accuracy for acetic, propionic, and butyric acids (RPD < 2.5). However, pH, and lactic and total acids were predicted with considerable accuracy ($R_{cv}^2$ 0.73 to 0.78; RPD values exceeded 2.5), and the best mathematical treatment for them was 1, 8, 8. Our findings show that, when fresh haylage is used, NIRS-based calibrations are reliable for the prediction of haylage characteristics, and therefore useful for the assessment of the forage quality.

Blood Loss Prediction of Rats in Hemorrhagic Shock Using a Linear Regression Model (출혈성 쇼크를 일으킨 흰쥐에서 선형회귀 분석모델을 이용한 출혈량 추정)

  • Lee, Tak-Hyung;Lee, Ju-Hyung;Choi, Jae-Rim;Yang, Dong-In;Kim, Deok-Won
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2010
  • Hemorrhagic shock is a common cause of death in the emergency department. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between blood loss as a percent of the total estimated blood volume (% blood loss) and changes in several physiological parameters. The other goal was to achieve an accurate prediction of percent blood loss for hemorrhagic shock in rats using a linear regression model. We allocated 60 Sprague-Dawley rats into four groups: 0ml, 2ml, 2.5ml, 3 mL/100 g during 15 min. We analyzed the heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiration rate, and body temperature in relation to the percent blood loss. We generated a linear regression model predicting the percent blood loss using a randomly chosen 360 data set and the R-square value of the model was 0.80. Root mean square error of the tested 360 data set using the linear regression was 5.7%. Even though the linear regression model is not directly applicable to clinical situation, our method of predicting % blood loss could be helpful in determining the necessary fluid volume for resuscitation in the future.

Prediction of Water Storage Rate for Agricultural Reservoirs Using Univariate and Multivariate LSTM Models (단변량 및 다변량 LSTM을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 저수율 예측)

  • Sunguk Joh;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_4
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    • pp.1125-1134
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    • 2023
  • Out of the total 17,000 reservoirs in Korea, 13,600 small agricultural reservoirs do not have hydrological measurement facilities, making it difficult to predict water storage volume and appropriate operation. This paper examined univariate and multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to predict the storage rate of agricultural reservoirs using remote sensing and artificial intelligence. The univariate LSTM model used only water storage rate as an explanatory variable, and the multivariate LSTM model added n-day accumulative precipitation and date of year (DOY) as explanatory variables. They were trained using eight years data (2013 to 2020) for Idong Reservoir, and the predictions of the daily water storage in 2021 were validated for accuracy assessment. The univariate showed the root-mean square error (RMSE) of 1.04%, 2.52%, and 4.18% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. The multivariate model showed the RMSE 0.98%, 1.95%, and 2.76% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. In addition to the time-series storage rate, DOY and daily and 5-day cumulative precipitation variables were more significant than others for the daily model, which means that the temporal range of the impacts of precipitation on the everyday water storage rate was approximately five days.

Comparison of Wind Vectors Derived from GK2A with Aeolus/ALADIN (위성기반 GK2A의 대기운동벡터와 Aeolus/ALADIN 바람 비교)

  • Shin, Hyemin;Ahn, Myoung-Hwan;KIM, Jisoo;Lee, Sihye;Lee, Byung-Il
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_1
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    • pp.1631-1645
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    • 2021
  • This research aims to provide the characteristics of the world's first active lidar sensor Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) wind data and Geostationary Korea Multi Purpose Satellite 2A (GK2A) Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data by comparing two wind data. As a result of comparing the data from September 2019 to August 1, 2020, The total number of collocated data for the AMV (using IR channel) and Mie channel ALADIN data is 177,681 which gives the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.73 m/s and the correlation coefficient is 0.98. For a more detailed analysis, Comparison result considering altitude and latitude, the Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) is 0.2-0.3 at most latitude bands. However, the upper and middle layers in the lower latitudes and the lower layer in the southern hemispheric are larger than 0.4 at specific latitudes. These results are the same for the water vapor channel and the visible channel regardless of the season, and the channel-specific and seasonal characteristics do not appear prominently. Furthermore, as a result of analyzing the distribution of clouds in the latitude band with a large difference between the two wind data, Cirrus or cumulus clouds, which can lower the accuracy of height assignment of AMV, are distributed more than at other latitude bands. Accordingly, it is suggested that ALADIN wind data in the southern hemisphere and low latitude band, where the error of the AMV is large, can have a positive effect on the numerical forecast model.

Simultaneous estimation of fatty acids contents from soybean seeds using fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography by multivariate analysis (적외선 분광스펙트럼 및 기체크로마토그라피 분석 데이터의 다변량 통계분석을 이용한 대두 종자 지방산 함량예측)

  • Ahn, Myung Suk;Ji, Eun Yee;Song, Seung Yeob;Ahn, Joon Woo;Jeong, Won Joong;Min, Sung Ran;Kim, Suk Weon
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.60-70
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    • 2015
  • The aim of this study was to investigate whether fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy can be applied to simultaneous determination of fatty acids contents in different soybean cultivars. Total 153 lines of soybean (Glycine max Merrill) were examined by FT-IR spectroscopy. Quantification of fatty acids from the soybean lines was confirmed by quantitative gas chromatography (GC) analysis. The quantitative spectral variation among different soybean lines was observed in the amide bond region ($1,700{\sim}1,500cm^{-1}$), phosphodiester groups ($1,500{\sim}1,300cm^{-1}$) and sugar region ($1,200{\sim}1,000cm^{-1}$) of FT-IR spectra. The quantitative prediction modeling of 5 individual fatty acids contents (palmitic acid, stearic acid, oleic acid, linoleic acid, linolenic acid) from soybean lines were established using partial least square regression algorithm from FT-IR spectra. In cross validation, there were high correlations ($R^2{\geq}0.97$) between predicted content of 5 individual fatty acids by PLS regression modeling from FT-IR spectra and measured content by GC. In external validation, palmitic acid ($R^2=0.8002$), oleic acid ($R^2=0.8909$) and linoleic acid ($R^2=0.815$) were predicted with good accuracy, while prediction for stearic acid ($R^2=0.4598$), linolenic acid ($R^2=0.6868$) had relatively lower accuracy. These results clearly show that FT-IR spectra combined with multivariate analysis can be used to accurately predict fatty acids contents in soybean lines. Therefore, we suggest that the PLS prediction system for fatty acid contents using FT-IR analysis could be applied as a rapid and high throughput screening tool for the breeding for modified Fatty acid composition in soybean and contribute to accelerating the conventional breeding.

Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

A Study on the Automatic Inspection of Sewer Facility Map (하수도시설물도 자동 검수 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Hwan;Ohk, Won-Soo;Yoo, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 2006
  • Local governments began to construct geographic information system to improve government productivity and performance. In support, central government organized a national commission for GIS. The master plan by NGIS has been the base for local government to participate in the construction of GIS at the local level in the under ground facilities management including water and sewers. The challenge faced by sewer facility managers includes controlling 'data accuracy'. The input for sewer data handling for efficient performance in local government requires accurate data. However data manipulation to get the 'good quality' data can be burdensome. Thus, the aim of this research is to provide the appropriate tool to guarantee the high quality of digital data in sewer facility management. It is helpful to pass the data examination by government as well as to insure confidence of decision and data analysis works in local government. In this research, error types of sewer data were classified and pointed the limitation of traditional examination methods. Thus this research suggested more improved method for finding and correcting errors in data input using sewer volume analysis and prediction model as immigrating sewer facility management work to Geographic Information System.

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