• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.209-222
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• 2015

Time series are used in many studies for model building and analysis. We must be very careful to understand the kind of time series data used in the analysis. In this review article, we will begin with some issues related to the use of aggregate and systematic sampling time series. Since several time series are often used in a study of the relationship of variables, we will also consider vector time series modeling and analysis. Although the basic procedures of model building between univariate time series and vector time series are the same, there are some important phenomena which are unique to vector time series. Therefore, we will also discuss some issues related to vector time models. Understanding these issues is important when we use time series data in modeling and analysis, regardless of whether it is a univariate or multivariate time series.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.221-237
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• 2015

An integrated method is proposed for structural nonlinear damage detection based on time series analysis and the higher statistical moments of structural responses in this study. It combines the time series analysis, the higher statistical moments of AR model residual errors and the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering techniques. A few comprehensive damage indexes are developed in the arithmetic and geometric mean of the higher statistical moments, and are classified by using the FCM clustering method to achieve nonlinear damage detection. A series of the measured response data, downloaded from the web site of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) USA, from a three-storey building structure considering the environmental variety as well as different nonlinear damage cases, are analyzed and used to assess the performance of the new nonlinear damage detection method. The effectiveness and robustness of the new proposed method are finally analyzed and concluded.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.605-616
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• 2000

Three primary interests frequently raised by mortgage companies are introduced and the corresponding statistical approaches for the default probability in mortgage companies are examined. Statistical models considered in this paper are time series, logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and discrete time models. Usage of the models is illustrated using an artificially modified data set and the corresponding models are evaluated in appropriate manners.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.255-261
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• 2015

Soil catena can be characterized by some properties, such as drainage levels and soil textures. Characteristics of soil catena are different drainage levels from a summit to the direction of gravity and similar soil textures. Therefore this study was performed GIS (Geographic information system) and statistical analyses using perimeters from soil series in order to characterize quantitatively and objectively soil distributional properties in Korea. The total of 16 soil series from representative granite and granite gneiss originated soils were selected among inland soils from detailed soil maps (1:25,000 scale) in Rural Development Administration (RDA) and analyzed. After the detailed soil maps were merged by soil series unit, perimeters were measured from one soil series to neighboring soil series using functions of table join, merge, dissolve, buffer, and clip in ArcGIS (10.1). The covering ratio of each soil series unit was calculated from neighboring perimeters by soil series and applied to clustering analysis. Soils that were analyzed were the total of 16 soil series; 7 of sandy loam and 9 of clay loam. As a result, analyzed soil series adjoined complicatedly such as Hyocheon series adjoined 26 series and Jisan did 276 series. The results of the clustering analysis showed that soils were clustered by soil textures except a few soil series. This study applied only one property that was a length of neighboring soil series to GIS and statistical analyses. These results were compared to existing soil groups that were classified by new-soil taxonomy, texture, soil type and drainage level. It showed that these analyses can provide soil characteristics by soil texture. Based on this study, there is a need to investigate further objectively and quantitatively in statistical analyses of soil series.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.377-390
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• 2010

In the case of time-series analysis, it is often more convenient to rely on the frequency domain than the time domain. Spectral density is the core of the frequency-domain analysis that describes autocorrelation structures in a time-series process. Possible ways to estimate spectral density are to compute a periodogram or to average the periodogram over some frequencies with (un)equal weights. This can be an attractive tool to measure the similarity between time-series processes. We employ the metrics based on a smoothed periodogram proposed by Park and Kim (2008) for the classification of different classes of time-series processes. We consider several lag windows with unequal weights instead of a modified Daniel's window used in Park and Kim (2008). We evaluate the performance under various simulation scenarios. Simulation results reveal that the metrics used in this study split the time series into the preassigned clusters better than do the raw-periodogram based ones proposed by Caiado et al. 2006. Our metrics are applied to an economic time-series dataset.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.254-257
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• 2003

Statistical analysis is performed to estimate the correlations between geological or geographical factor and groundwater inflow rates in the Seoul subway system. Correlation analysis shows that among several geological and geographical factors fractures and streams have most strong effects on inflow rate into tunnels. In particular, subway line 5∼8 are affected more by these factors than subway line 1∼4. Time series analysis is carried out to forecast groundwater inflow rate. Time series analysis is a useful empirical method for simulation and forecasts in case that physical model can not be applied to. The time series of groundwater inflow rates is calculated using the observation data. Transfer function-noise model is applied with the precipitation data as input variables. For time series analysis, statistical methods are performed to identify proper model and autoregressive-moving average models are applied to evaluation of inflow rate. Each model is identified to satisfy the lowest value of information criteria. Results show that the values by result equations are well fitted with the actual inflow rate values. The selected models could give a good explanation of inflow rates variation into subway tunnels.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.415-434
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• 2015

In this paper we overview the literature on common features analysis of economic time series. Starting from the seminal contributions by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993), we present and discuss the various notions that have been proposed to detect and model common cyclical features in macroeconometrics. In particular, we analyze in details the link between common cyclical features and the reduced-rank regression model. We also illustrate similarities and differences between the common features methodology and other popular types of multivariate time series modelling. Finally, we discuss some recent developments in this area, such as the implications of common features for univariate time series models and the analysis of common autocorrelation in medium-large dimensional systems.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.697-712
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• 2010

This paper is concerned with the statistical analysis and development of stochastic models for the demand for life insurance policy loans. For these, firstly the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the monthly demand for life insurance policy loans are investigated by a statistical analysis of the monthly demand data for the years 1999 through 2008. Secondly, the causal relationships between the demand for life insurance policy loans and the economic variables including unemployment rate and inflation rate for the period are investigated. The results show that inflation rate is main factor influencing policy loan demands. The overall evidence, however, failed to establish unidirectional causality relationships between the demand series and the other variables under study. Finally, based on these, univariate time series model and transfer function model where the demand series is related to one input series are derived, respectively, for the prediction of the demand for life insurance policy loans. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the demand for life insurance policy loans is also proposed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.471-486
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• 2014

This study introduces a new type of symbolic data, a candle chart-valued time series. We aggregate four stock indices (i.e., open, close, highest and lowest) as a one data point to summarize a huge amount of data. In other words, we consider a candle chart, which is constructed by open, close, highest and lowest stock indices, as a type of symbolic data for a long period. The proposed candle chart-valued time series effectively summarize and visualize a huge data set of stock indices to easily understand a change in stock indices. We also propose novel approaches for the candle chart-valued time series modeling based on a combination of two midpoints and two half ranges between the highest and the lowest indices, and between the open and the close indices. Furthermore, we propose three types of sum of square for estimation of the candle chart valued-time series model. The proposed methods take into account of information from not only ordinary data, but also from interval of object, and thus can effectively perform for time series modeling (e.g., forecasting future stock index). To evaluate the proposed methods, we describe real data analysis consisting of the stock market indices of five major Asian countries'. We can see thorough the results that the proposed approaches outperform for forecasting future stock indices compared with classical data analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.13-15
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• 2000

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic properties of the regression quantile estimators in the nonlinear time series regression model. For the sinusodial model which frequently appears fer a time series analysis, we study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of regression quantile ostinators.