• Title/Summary/Keyword: shipping model

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Sensitivity analysis for freight rate change in liner shipping industry - Comparison between slot chartering model and non-collaborating model - (정기선 해운사의 해상운송 요율 변화에 대한 민감도 분석 - 단독 운송과 제휴 운송 비교 -)

  • Chung, Ki-Ho
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a mathematical formulation for container slot chartering model through strategic alliance between liner shipping companies. This paper develops a solution procedure to apply the model to real world problems and its applicability is demonstrated by a numerical example. The model presented in this paper has some important features which have never been considered in the previous researches. The model is linear model and pursuits profit maximization. And also it considers slot chartering capacity selection. This paper attempts to perform sensitivity analysis and compares slot chartering model with basic non-collaborating model in which there is no alliance and collaboration. As a result of sensitivity analysis, some interesting findings are obtained; Even though freight rate is more and more decreasing, the profit by slot chartering model is always higher than the basic model but the profit gaps become smaller. But The ratio of the profit gap to the profit of basic model is more increasing.

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Factor Analysis Affecting on Chartering Decision-making in the Dry Bulk Shipping Market (부정기 건화물선 시장에서 용선 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to confirm the impact of analytical methods and behavioral economic theory factors on decision-making when making chartering decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. This study on chartering decision-making model was began to verify why shipping companies do not make rational decision-making and behavior based on analytical methods such as freight prediction and process of alternative selection in the same market situation. To understand the chartering decision-making model, it is necessary to study the impact of behavioral economic theory such as heuristics, loss aversion, and herding behavior on chartering decision-making. Through AHP analysis, the importance of the method factors relied upon in chartering decision-making. The dependence of the top factors in chartering decision-making was in the following order: market factors, heuristics, internal factors, herding behavior, and loss aversion. Market factors, heuristics, and internal factors. As for detailed factors, spot freight index and empirical intuition were confirmed as the most important factors relied on when making decisions. It was confirmed that empirical intuition is more important than internal analysis, which is an analytical method. This study can be said to be meaningful in that it academically researched and proved the bounded rationality of humans, which cannot be fully rational, and sometimes relies on experience or psychological tendencies, by applying it to the chartering decision-making model in the dry bulk shipping market. It also suggests that in the dry bulk shipping market, which is uncertain and has a high risk of loss due to decision-making, the experience and insight of decision makers have a very important impact on the performance and business profits of the operation part of shipping companies. Even though chartering are a decision-making field that requires judgment and intuition based on heuristics, decision-makers need to be aware of this decision-making model in order to reduce repeated mistakes of deciding contrary to market situation. It also suggests that there is a need to internally research analytical methods and procedures that can complement heuristics such as empirical intuition.

Study on the Relationship between Capital Structure and Earning Management in the Korean Shipping Companies (해운기업의 자본구조와 이익조정 간의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.235-242
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    • 2017
  • Earnings management is defined as an intentional act during the financial reporting process or a manager's choice of accounting policies to avoid earnings decreases or obtain some private gains. Shipping firms have a highly debt-intensive capital structure and a significant motivation in earnings management to avoid failure of a Debt Covenant. From this point of views, this paper tries to determine the relationship between the capital structure and discretionary accruals estimated using the re-modified Jones model (1995). The sample used to test the research models is made up of 87 Korean shipping firms during the period from 2007 to 2015. A histogram analysis, t-test and FGLS confirm the possibility of using earnings management, and it proved that Korean shipping firms manage their earnings to avoid financial loss. An analysis of the relationship between the capital structure and earning managements, shows it is difficult to support the Debt Covenant, shown as a negative relationship between the debt ratio and debt maturity as shipping firms' capital structure and discretionary accruals as earning management variable. An additional analysis presents a negative relationship between previous debt maturity and discretionary accruals, and the possibility of earning management in a highly increased debt ration group.

A Study on the Impacts of Shipping Service Firm's Perceived Relational Benefits on Switching Barriers and Customer Loyalty -Focusing on Tug Boat Service- (해운기업의 지각된 관계 혜택과 전환장벽 및 고객 충성도의 관계에 관한 실증연구 -예인서비스를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Ikseong;Kim, Hyundeok
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of shipping service firm's perceived relational benefits on switching barriers and loyalty focusing on tug boat service. To achieve the purpose of the research, literature survey on existing literature, thesis, research report is performed and also reliability analysis, validity test and multiple regression analysis using SPSSWIN 18.0 is used in this research. To verify a research model and hypothesis, a questionnaire survey among employees of shipping companies and shipping agencies was executed. 76 copies of total 200 copies of questionnaires were collected and the number of questionnaire used for empirical analysis was 76 copies. The main results of the study are summarized as below. First, Hypothesis 1 "shipping service firm's perceived relational benefits has a positive impact on the switching barrier" was supported by this study. Second, Hypothesis 2 "shipping service firm's perceived relational benefits has a positive impact on the loyalty" was supported in this research. Finally, Hypothesis 3 "switching barrier has a positive impact on the customer's loyalty" was also supported. Further research can be extended by adding more questionnaires including more shipping service firms all over the nation.

The Effect of Job Environmental Factors on Job Satisfaction and Turnover Intention of Container Shipping Workers -Focused on the Difference between Land and Maritime Workers of 'H' Liner Shipping Company- (컨테이너 선사 종사자의 직무환경 요인이 직무만족도와 이직의도에 미치는 영향 - H사의 육상직과 해상직간 차이를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Won-woo;Ryu, Hee-chan;Lee, Choong-bae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.143-158
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    • 2022
  • The shipping industry has experienced significantly fluctuated while decline in long-term and boom in short-term period due to the continuous recession of the shipping industry since the 2010s and during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to suggest implications for securing manpower and personnel policy by analyzing the effects of job environmental factors of a liner shipping company on job satisfaction and turnover intention and differences between land and marine workers. For the analysis, the job environmental factors of a liner shipping company were divided into work character, relational factors, personnel characters, and remuneration factors, and then structural equation model and t-test were conducted to test the relationship between job satisfaction and turnover intention. As a result of the study, it was found that job environmental factors, such as work, relationship, personnel, and remuneration, had a positive (+) effect on job satisfaction, and job satisfaction had a negative (-) effect on turnover intention. In a comparative analysis between groups such as land and sea workers, it was found that the maritime workers group had higher job satisfaction and lower turnover intention than the land workers.

A Study on the Determination of Tramp Freight Rates (부정기선 운임율의 결정에 관한 이론적 고찰)

  • 이종인
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.45-79
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    • 1980
  • The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

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The Causal Relationship Test between Marine Business Cycle and Shipping Market Using Heterogeneous Mixed Panel Framework (해운경기변동과 선박시장에 대한 다차원 혼합 패널 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

Research on Interest Rate Determinants in Shipping Loans (선박금융의 금리결정 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Kyung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Myoung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.133-149
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    • 2024
  • According to previous studies, the key factor in determining the loan interest rate for shipping companies is the default risk premium. Therefore, this study analyzes the determinants of the risk premium of shipping loans using a multiple linear regression model. With the risk premium as the dependent variable, a total of 10 independent variables are selected, including three factors: loan characteristics, borrower's creditworthiness, and economic situation. Samples are 82 shipping loans supported by Bank A from 2014 to 2022. As a result, borrower's creditworthiness(current ratio, debt ratio, firm age) and economic situation(freight index) affect the risk premium in analysis for all samples. It is found that borrower's creditworthiness has some influence on the risk premium for container ships(current ratio, cash holding ratio, debt ratio, operating income to sales) and bulk carriers(debt ratio, firm age). Market situation affects the risk premium in gas carriers. However, in the model targeting tanker ships, unlike previous studies, all factors have no effect on the risk premium.

Analysis of causality of Baltic Drybulk index (BDI) and maritime trade volume (발틱운임지수(BDI)와 해상 물동량의 인과성 검정)

  • Bae, Sung-Hoon;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.127-141
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the relationship between Baltic Dry Index(BDI) and maritime trade volume in the dry cargo market was verified using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Data was analyzed from 1992 to 2018 for iron ore, steam coal, coking coal, grain, and minor bulks of maritime trade volume and BDI. Granger causality analysis showed that the BDI affects the trade volume of coking coal and minor bulks but the trade volume of iron ore, steam coal and grain do not correlate with the BDI freight index. Impulse response analysis showed that the shock of BDI had the greatest impact on coking coal at the two years lag and the impact was negligible at the ten years lag. In addition, the shock of BDI on minor cargoes was strongest at the three years lag, and were negligible at the ten years lag. This study examined the relationship between maritime trade volume and BDI in the dry bulk shipping market in which uncertainty is high. As a result of this study, there is an economic aspect of sustainability that has helped the risk management of shipping companies. In addition, it is significant from an academic point of view that the long-term relationship between the two time series was analyzed through the causality test between variables. However, it is necessary to develop a forecasting model that will help decision makers in maritime markets using more sophisticated methods such as the Bayesian VAR model.

A Study on the Side Drop Impact of a Nuclear Spent Fuel Shipping Cask (사용후 핵연료 수송용기의 수평낙하충격에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Young-Shin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 1997
  • A nuclear spent fuel shipping cask is required by IAEA and domestic regulations to withstand a 9m free drop condition. In this paper, the structural analysis under the 9m side drop condition was performed to understand the dynamic impact behavior and to evaluate the safety of the cask for 7 PWR nuclear spent fuel assemblies. The analysis result was compared with the measured value of the 9m side drop test for the 1/3 scaled-down model and the accuracy of the 3D analysis was confirmed. Analysis in accordance with the diameter of impact limiters for the proto-type cask were performed. Through the analysis, the impact behaviors due to the side drop and the effects dependent on the diameter of impact limiters were grasped. Maximum stress intensities on each part of the cask were respectively calculated by using the stress evaluation program and the structural safety of the cask was finally evaluated in accordance with the regulations.