• Title/Summary/Keyword: scenario analysis

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Project Risk Management & Observational Method for soft ground improvement (연약지반을 대상으로 한 프로젝트 리스크와 현장계측의 과제와 대책)

  • Imanishi, Hajime
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2006.10a
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    • pp.509-514
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    • 2006
  • Considering the risk management, there are many examples and various studies for the corporation risk. However, I have never seen the project risk management that applied a construction site for practical approach. Therefore, I have developed a chart (I-Chart) for the project risk management, and also built a model (I-Chart scenario analysis) that I could use. I applied this model to container yard reclaimed land in harbor construction with approaching of geotechnical engineering.

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Requirement Analysis of Navigation System for Lunar Lander According to Mission Conditions (임무조건에 따른 달 착륙선 항법시스템 요구성능 분석)

  • Park, Young Bum;Park, Chan Gook;Kwon, Jae Wook;Rew, Dong Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.9
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    • pp.734-745
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    • 2017
  • The navigation system of lunar lander are composed of various navigation sensors which have a complementary characteristics such as inertial measurement unit, star tracker, altimeter, velocimeter, and camera for terrain relative navigation to achieve the precision and autonomous navigation capability. The required performance of sensors has to be determined according to the landing scenario and mission requirement. In this paper, the specifications of navigation sensors are investigated through covariance analysis. The reference error model with 77 state vector and measurement model are derived for covariance analysis. The mission requirement is categorized as precision exploration with 90m($3{\sigma}$ ) landing accuracy and area exploration with 6km($3{\sigma}$ ), and the landing scenario is divided into PDI(Powered descent initiation) and DOI(Deorbit initiation) scenario according to the beginning of autonomous navigation. The required specifications of the navigation sensors are derived by analyzing the performance according to the sensor combination and landing scenario.

UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF TMI-2 ACCIDENT SCENARIO USING SIMULATION BASED TECHNIQUES

  • Rao, R. Srinivasa;Kumar, Abhay;Gupta, S.K.;Lele, H.G.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.7
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    • pp.807-816
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    • 2012
  • The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been studied extensively, as part of both post-accident technical assessment and follow-up computer code calculations. The models used in computer codes for severe accidents have improved significantly over the years due to better understanding. It was decided to reanalyze the severe accident scenario using current state of the art codes and methodologies. This reanalysis was adopted as a part of the joint standard problem exercise for the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) - United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC) bilateral safety meet. The accident scenario was divided into four phases for analysis viz., Phase 1 covers from the accident initiation to the shutdown of the last Reactor Coolant Pumps (RCPs) (0 to 100 min), Phase 2 covers initial fuel heat up and core degradation (100 to 174 min), Phase 3 is the period of recovery of the core water level by operating the reactor coolant pump, and the core reheat that followed (174 to 200 min) and Phase 4 covers refilling of the core by high pressure injection (200 to 300 min). The base case analysis was carried out for all four phases. The majority of the predicted parameters are in good agreement with the observed data. However, some parameters have significant deviations compared to the observed data. These discrepancies have arisen from uncertainties in boundary conditions, such as makeup flow, flow during the RCP 2B transient (Phase 3), models used in the code, the adopted nodalisation schemes, etc. In view of this, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using simulation based techniques. The paper deals with uncertainty and sensitivity analyses carried out for the first three phases of the accident scenario.

Foresight study on the Overseas Export of Nuclear Power Plants (시나리오 기반 미래원전산업의 환경변화 전망 및 수출전략 도출)

  • Hwang, Byung Yong;Choi, Han Lim;Lee, Yong Suk
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2012
  • This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

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Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potentials in a University using Bottom-up Model (상향식 모형을 이용한 대학의 온실가스 감축 잠재량 평가)

  • Yoo, Jung-Hwa;Park, Nyun-Bae;Jo, Mi-hyun;Jeon, Eui-Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 2012
  • In this study, the S University's energy usage, greenhouse gas emissions situation and potential reduction amount were analyzed using a long-term energy analysis model, LEAP. In accordance with the VISION 2020 and university's own improvement plans, S University plans to complete a second campus through expansion constructions by 2020 and by allocating the needed land. Accordingly, increases in energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions seem inevitable. Hence, in this study, the calculations of potential reduction amount by 2020 were attempted through the use of LEAP model by categorizing the energy used based on usage types and by proposing usage typebased reduction methods. There were a total of 4 scenarios: a standard scenario that predicted the energy usage without any additional energy reduction activity; energy reduction scenario using LED light replacement; energy reduction scenario using high efficiency building equipment; and a scenario that combines these two energy reduction scenarios. As scenario-based results, it was ascertained that, through the scenario that had two other energy reduction scenarios combined, the 2020 greenhouse gas emissions amount would be 14,916 tons of $CO_2eq$, an increase of 43.7% compared to the 2010 greenhouse gas emissions amount. Put differently, it was possible to derive a result of about 23.7% reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions amount for S University's greenhouse gas emissions amount through energy reduction activities. In terms of energy reduction methods, changing into ultra-high efficiency building equipment would deliver the most amount of reduction.

Neutronic assessment of BDBA scenario at the end of Isfahan MNSR core life

  • Ahmadi, M.;Pirouzmand, A.;Rabiee, A.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.1037-1042
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    • 2018
  • The present study aims to assess the excess induced reactivity in a Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) for a Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) scenario. The BDBA scenario as defined in the Safety Analysis Report (SAR) of the reactor involves sticking of the control rod and filling of the inner and outer irradiation sites with water. At the end of the MNSR core life, 10.95 cm of Beryllium is added to the top of the core as a reflector which affects some neutronic parameters such as effective delayed neutrons fraction (${\beta}_{eff}$), the reactivity worth of inner and outer irradiation sites that are filled with water and the reactivity worth of the control rod. Given those influences and changes, new neutronic calculations are required to be able to demonstrate the reactor safety. Therefore, a validated MCNPX model is used to calculate all neutronic parameters at the end of the reactor core life. The calculations show that the induced reactivity in the BDBA scenario increases at the end of core life to $7.90{\pm}0.01mk$ which is significantly higher than the induced reactivity of 6.80 mk given in the SAR of MNSR for the same scenario but at the beginning of the core's life. Also this value is 3.90 mk higher than the maximum allowable operational limit (i.e. 4.00 mk).

Does Financial Behavior Influence Financial Well-being?

  • CHAVALI, Kavita;MOHAN RAJ, Prasanna;AHMED, Riyaz
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.273-280
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    • 2021
  • Financial behavior and financial well-being are two closely related aspects of an individual's financial decision making. This study attempts to investigate the extent to which financial behavior influences financial well-being in the Indian scenario. The data is collected using a structured questionnaire from a sample of 150 respondents. The study employs Financial Management Behaviour Scale (FMBS) (Dew & Xiao, 2012) to measure financial behavior. Factor analysis and multiple regression are performed to find the influence of financial behavior on financial well-being. The findings of the study suggest that except for credit commitment all the other behavioral factors like future security, savings and investments, credit indiscipline, and financial consciousness have a significant impact on the financial well-being of an individual in the Indian scenario. The regression coefficients of financial well-being are strongly determined by financial consciousness. The study is a contribution to the existing behavioral studies literature and the model used identifies the factors that influence the financial well-being in the Indian scenario. The study is conducted during the year 2020, so the results could have been influenced by the economic scenario of the period. The results of the study can be used by financial advisors to understand the financial well-being in the Indian scenario.

Evaluation for conjunctive operation of multi-regional water supply system through risk analysis (위기대응 취약성 분석을 통한 광역상수도 연계운영 평가)

  • Hwang, Jinsoo;Choi, Taeho;Hong, Gonghyun;Lee, Doojin;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2019
  • This study would present a risk analysis method to evaluate stable tap water supply in a multi-regional water supply system and propose a measure for the evaluation of the effect of the conjunctive operation of the multi-regional water supply system using this. Judging from the vulnerability for the crisis response of the entire N. multi-regional water supply system, as compared to the result of Scenario 1 in which no conjunctive pipes were operated, it was found that in Scenario 2, in which conjunctive pipes were partially operated, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by about 30.6%, and as compared to Scenario 3, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by 86.2%. In setting a plan for stable tap water supply in N multi-regional water supply system, using the estimated value and the method for the evaluation of the vulnerability of crisis response by pipe, by interval and by line, it is judged that this can be utilized as a basis for the judgment of the evaluation of the operation or the additional installation of conjunctive pipes.

Flight Scenario Trajectory Design of Fixed Wing and Rotary Wing UAV for Integrated Navigation Performance Analysis (통합항법 성능 분석을 위한 고정익, 회전익 무인항공기의 비행 시나리오 궤적 설계)

  • Won, Daehan;Oh, Jeonghwan;Kang, Woosung;Eom, Songgeun;Lee, Dongjin;Kim, Doyoon;Han, Sanghyuck
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.38-43
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    • 2022
  • As the use of unmanned aerial vehicles increases, in order to expand the operability of the unmanned aerial vehicle, it is essential to develop an unmanned aerial vehicle traffic management system, and to establish the system, it is necessary to analyze the integrated navigation performance of the unmanned aerial vehicle to be operated. Integrated navigation performance is affected by various factors such as the type of unmanned aerial vehicle, flight environment, and guidance law algorithm. In addition, since a large amount of flight data is required to obtain high-reliability analysis results, efficient and consistent flight scenarios are required. In this paper, a flight scenario that satisfies the requirements for integrated navigation performance analysis of rotary and fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles was designed and verified through flight experiments.

The Use and Abuse of Climate Scenarios in Agriculture (농업부문 기후시나리오 활용의 주의점)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2016
  • It is not clear how to apply the climate scenario to assess the impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. Even if you apply the same scenario, the result can vary depending on the temporal-spatial downscaling, the post-treatment to adjust the bias of a model, and the prediction model selection (used for an impact assessment). The end user, who uses the scenario climate data, should select climate factors, a spatial extend, and a temporal range appropriate for the objectives of an analysis. It is important to draw the impact assessment results with minimum uncertainty by evaluating the suitability of the data including the reproducibility of the past climate and calculating the optimum future climate change scenario. This study introduced data processing methods for reducing the uncertainties in the process of applying the future climate change scenario to users in the agricultural sector and tried to provide basic information for appropriately using the scenario data in accordance with the study objectives.