• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk prediction system

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A Design of the Social Disasters Safety Platform based on the Structured and Unstructured Data (정형/비정형 데이터 기반 사회재난 안전 플랫폼 설계)

  • Lee, Chang Yeol;Park, Gil Joo;Kim, Junggon;Kim, Taehwan
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.609-621
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Natural Disaster has well formed framework more than social disaster, because natural disaster is controlled by one department, such as MOIS, but social disaster is distributed. This study is on the design of the integrated service platform for the social diaster data. and then, apply to the local governments. Method: Firstly, we design DB templates for the incident cases considering the incident investigation reports. For the risk management, life-damage oriented social disaster risk assessment is defined. In case of the real-time incident data from NDMS, AI system provides the prediction information in the life damage and the cause of the incident. Result: We design the structured and unstructured incident data management system, and design the integrated social disaster and safety incident management system. Conclusion: The integrated social disaster and safety incident management system may be used in the local governments

The Agriculture Decision-making System(ADS) based on Deep Learning for improving crop productivity (농산물 생산성 향상을 위한 딥러닝 기반 농업 의사결정시스템)

  • Park, Jinuk;Ahn, Heuihak;Lee, ByungKwan
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.521-530
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposes "The Agriculture Decision-making System(ADS) based on Deep Learning for improving crop productivity" that collects weather information based on location supporting precision agriculture, predicts current crop condition by using the collected information and real time crop data, and notifies a farmer of the result. The system works as follows. The ICM(Information Collection Module) collects weather information based on location supporting precision agriculture. The DRCM(Deep learning based Risk Calculation Module) predicts whether the C, H, N and moisture content of soil are appropriate to grow specific crops according to current weather. The RNM(Risk Notification Module) notifies a farmer of the prediction result based on the DRCM. The proposed system improves the stability because it reduces the accuracy reduction rate as the amount of data increases and is apply the unsupervised learning to the analysis stage compared to the existing system. As a result, the simulation result shows that the ADS improved the success rate of data analysis by about 6%. And the ADS predicts the current crop growth condition accurately, prevents in advance the crop diseases in various environments, and provides the optimized condition for growing crops.

Customized Evacuation Pathfinding through WSN-Based Monitoring in Fire Scenarios (WSN 기반 화재 상황 모니터링을 통한 대피 경로 도출 알고리즘)

  • Yoon, JinYi;Jin, YeonJin;Park, So-Yeon;Lee, HyungJune
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.1661-1670
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we present a risk prediction system and customized evacuation pathfinding algorithm in fire scenarios. For the risk prediction, we apply a multi-level clustering mechanism using collected temperature at sensor nodes throughout the network in order to predict the temperature at the time that users actually evacuate. Based on the predicted temperature and its reliability, we suggest an evacuation pathfinding algorithm that finds a suitable evacuation path from a user's current location to the safest exit. Simulation results based on FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) of NIST for a wireless sensor network consisting of 47 stationary nodes for 1436.41 seconds show that our proposed prediction system achieves a higher accuracy by a factor of 1.48. Particularly for nodes in the most reliable group, it improves the accuracy by a factor of up to 4.21. Also, the customized evacuation pathfinding based on our prediction algorithm performs closely with that of the ground-truth temperature in terms of the ratio of safe nodes on the selected path, while outperforming the shortest-path evacuation with a factor of up to 12% in terms of a safety measure.

Compatibility for the Typhoon Damages Predicted by Korea Risk Assessment Model Input Data (한국형 재해평가모형(RAM)의 초기입력자료 적합성 평가)

  • Park, Jong-Kil;Lee, Bo-Ram;Jung, Woo-Sik
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.865-874
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to investigate the correlation between the distribution chart and input data of the predicted 3-second gust and damage cost, by using the forecast field and analysis field of Regional Data Assimilation Prediction System (RDAPS) as initial input data of Korea risk assessment model (RAM) developed in the preceding study. In this study the cases of typhoon Rusa which caused occurred great damage to the Korean peninsula was analyzed to assess the suitability of initial input data. As a result, this study has found out that the distribution chart from the forecast field and analysis field predicted from the point where the effect due to the typhoon began had similarity in both 3-second gust and damage cost with the course of time. As a result of examining the correlation, the 3-second gust had over 0.8, and it means that the forecast field and analysis field show similar results. This study has shown that utilizing the forecast field as initial input data of Korea RAM could suit the purpose of pre-disaster prevention.

Automated Phase Identification in Shingle Installation Operation Using Machine Learning

  • Dutta, Amrita;Breloff, Scott P.;Dai, Fei;Sinsel, Erik W.;Warren, Christopher M.;Wu, John Z.
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.728-735
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    • 2022
  • Roofers get exposed to increased risk of knee musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) at different phases of a sloped shingle installation task. As different phases are associated with different risk levels, this study explored the application of machine learning for automated classification of seven phases in a shingle installation task using knee kinematics and roof slope information. An optical motion capture system was used to collect knee kinematics data from nine subjects who mimicked shingle installation on a slope-adjustable wooden platform. Four features were used in building a phase classification model. They were three knee joint rotation angles (i.e., flexion, abduction-adduction, and internal-external rotation) of the subjects, and the roof slope at which they operated. Three ensemble machine learning algorithms (i.e., random forests, decision trees, and k-nearest neighbors) were used for training and prediction. The simulations indicate that the k-nearest neighbor classifier provided the best performance, with an overall accuracy of 92.62%, demonstrating the considerable potential of machine learning methods in detecting shingle installation phases from workers knee joint rotation and roof slope information. This knowledge, with further investigation, may facilitate knee MSD risk identification among roofers and intervention development.

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Psychopathy as a Risk Factor of Crime (잠재적 범죄위험요인으로서의 정신병질(psychopathy))

  • Soo Jung Lee;Hae-Hong Huh
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.39-77
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    • 2004
  • This literature review introduced the concept of psychopathy which has never been defined academically in Korea. Also it is reviewed how this concept could be applied as latent factor of criminal behavior in the forensic settings. For this purpose, first of all, the periodical change of psychopathy definition was explored. Then it was investigated which determinants might develop psychopathy and what would be the behavioral characteristics of psychopaths. Finally, risk assessment tools measuring psychopathy were introduced and their predictive efficacy and applicability in Korean criminal justice system was discussed.

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Development of IoT-based Safety Management Method through an Analysis of Risk Factors for Industrial Valves (산업용 밸브의 위험요소 분석을 통한 IoT 기반 안전관리 방안 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Young-Gu
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2019
  • The safety of industrial valves, which are the core parts of plant facilities, are managed by manpower and there are difficulties because of side area for inspection and limited accessibility due to the nature of facilities. The industrial valves used in plant facilities cause problems such as interrupted production; a loss of life due to leak or explosion of poisonous material and flammable gases, and difficulty in locating accident positions in the event of leakage or failure. Therefore, safety management and control systems based on IoT technology are needed. This study is about the development of risk factor prediction technique among the safety management of industrial valves through IoT- based wireless communication and the development of actuator control system. We have developed IoT-based industrial valve safety management techniques to prevent accidents caused by main risk factors by conducting an analysis of the structural characteristics of valves and an analysis of the causes of main risk factors through review of failure data and literature and an analysis of accident scenarios.

Implementation of Falling Accident Monitoring and Prediction System using Real-time Integrated Sensing Data

  • Bonghyun Kim
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.2987-3002
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    • 2023
  • In 2015, the number of senior citizens aged 65 and over in Korea was 6,662,400, accounting for 13.1% of the total population. Along with these social phenomena, risk information related to the elderly is increasing every year. In particular, a fall accident caused by a fall can cause serious injury to an elderly person, so special attention is required. Therefore, in this paper, we implemented a system that monitors fall accidents and informs them in real time to minimize damage caused by falls. To this end, beacon-based indoor location positioning was performed and biometric information based on an integrated module was collected using various sensors. In other words, a multi-functional sensor integration module was designed based on Arduino to collect and monitor user's temperature, heart rate, and motion data in real time. Finally, through the analysis and prediction of measurement signals from the integrated module, damage from fall accidents can be reduced and rapid emergency treatment is possible. Through this, it is possible to reduce the damage caused by a fall accident, and rapid emergency treatment will be possible. In addition, it is expected to lead a new paradigm of safety systems through expansion and application to socially vulnerable groups.

Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Distribution Scenarios over the Landslide High Risk Zones in Urban Areas (도심지 토사재해 고위험지역 극치강우 시간분포 시나리오 분석)

  • Yoon, Sunkwon;Jang, Sangmin;Rhee, Jinyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the extreme rainfall distribution scenarios based on probable rainfall calculation and applying various time distribution models over the landslide high risk zones in urban areas. We used observed rainfall data form total 71 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) station and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and we analyzed the linear trends for 1-hr and 24-hr annual maximum rainfall series using simple linear regression method, which are identified their increasing trends with slopes of 0.035 and 0.660 during 1961-2014, respectively. The Gumbel distribution was applied to obtain the return period and probability precipitation for each duration. The IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves for landslide high risk zones were derived by applying integrated probability precipitation intensity equation. Results from IDF analysis indicate that the probability precipitation varies from 31.4~38.3 % for 1 hr duration, and 33.0~47.9 % for 24 hr duration. It also showed different results for each area. The $Huff-4^{th}$ Quartile method as well as Mononobe distribution were selected as the rainfall distribution scenarios of landslide high risk zones. The results of this study can be used to provide boundary conditions for slope collapse analysis, to analyze sediment disaster risk, and to use as input data for risk prediction of debris flow.

Stock-based Managerial Compensation and Risk-taking in Bank (은행 임원의 주식기준 보상과 위험추구)

  • Yeo, Eunjung;Yoon, Kyoung-Soo;Lee, Hojun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.41-79
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    • 2011
  • This study examines the compensation scheme for the executives and risk-taking behavior in the Korean banks. Theoretically, shareholders prefer risky asset choice to the optimal one due to the limited liability feature of reward, and stock-based executive compensation may induce choices favorable to the shareholder. We empirically test this risk-taking hypothesis using Korean banks' data. Since only the stock option data is available under the current disclosure system, we limit our analysis to examine the relationship between the compensation through stock option and the risk of banks. The result provides no evidence that stock option compensations increase the risk of banks, which is contrary to the theoretical prediction and preceding studies in the US. This may be due to any factor that the executive reward data omit, or regulation effects on the bank management.

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