• 제목/요약/키워드: risk assessment model

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석유정제시설 운영에 대한 건강영향평가 사례 연구 - 화학물질 흡입에 따른 인체 위해도 평가 - (A Case Study on Health Impact Assessment from Petroleum Refinery Plant Operation - Human Risk Assessment due to Chemicals Inhalation -)

  • 명노일;이영수;신대윤
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.259-270
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    • 2010
  • We conducted human risk assessment for exposure to inhalation of chemical substances emitted from the storage tanks of petroleum refineries. To assess human risk, this study calculated chemical emissions from the external floating roofs on storage tank at petroleum refineries, as well as concentrations thereof in the ambient air using the K-SCREEN model, and then determined risk in accordance with the Reference Concentration (RfC) values and Inhalation Unit Risk criteria developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The results indicated that non-carcinogenic chemicals have a hazard quotient of less than 1, meaning they have an insignificant effect on human health for residential areas near the storage tanks. Among the known carcinogens, the hazard risk for benzene slightly exceeded $10^{-6}$, indicating the need for corrective reduction measures. The methodology for health impact assessment devised herein provides findings useful in decision making for policy makers and the general public with respect to construction of industrial complexes. However, the methodology proposed herein does have limitations, including discrepancy in results induced by use of U.S. data (due to the lack of usable domestic data). More systematic studies from related researchers will be needed to address these issues and produce more reliable outcomes.

Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

Microbial Modeling in Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) System: A Review

  • Min, Sea-Cheol;Choi, Young-Jin
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.279-293
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    • 2009
  • Quantitative risk assessments are related to implementing hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) by its potential involvement in identifying critical control points (CCPs), validating critical limits at a CCP, enabling rational designs of new processes, and products to meet required level of safety, and evaluating processing operations for verification procedures. The quantitative risk assessment is becoming a standard research tool which provides useful predictions and analyses on microbial risks and, thus, a valuable aid in implementing a HACCP system. This paper provides a review of microbial modeling in quantitative risk assessments, which can be applied to HACCP systems.

임상가를 위한 특집 2 - 우식위험도 평가에 근거한 치아우식증 관리(CAMBRA)의 이론적 배경 및 발전 과정 (Background and Develpoment of Caries Management based on Risk Assesssment(CAMBRA))

  • 조영식
    • 대한치과의사협회지
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    • 제52권8호
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    • pp.464-471
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    • 2014
  • This article reviewed theological background and historicak development in dental caries management by risk assessment. Dental caries prevention and treatment according to CAMBRA model is patient-centered, risk-based, evidence-based practice. Team approach is necessary and clinician need to integrate science, practice and product. Dental hygienist take a important role in implementing CAMBRA. CAMBRA model could be incorporated into dental and dental hygiene education. Dentist and dental hygienist able to provide scientific and ethical care managing dental caries by risk assessment.

지하수로부터의 실내 라돈오염시 인체노출평가 (Assessment of Human Exposures to Indoor Radon Released from Groundwater)

  • 유동한;김상준;양지원
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.241-249
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    • 2001
  • A report by the National Research Council in the United States suggested that many lung cancer deaths each year are associated with breathing radon in indoor air. Most of the indoor radon comes directly from soil beneath the basement of foundation. Recently, radon released from groundwater is found to contribute to the total inhalation risk from indoor air. This study presents the assessment of a exposure to radon released from the groundwater into indoor air. At first, a 3-compartment model is describe the transfer and distribution if radon released from groundwater in a house through showering, washing clothes, and flushing toilets. The model is used to estimate a daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon for adults based on two sets of exposure scenarios, Finally, a sensitivity analysis is used to identify important parameters. The results obtained from the study would help to increase the understanding of risk assessment issues associated with the indoor radon released from groundwater.

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안전교육의 효과성 향상에 관한 연구 - 제조업 위험성평가 담당자 교육을 중심으로 - (A Study on the Effectiveness Improvement of Safety Education - Focused on the Education of Manufacturing Risk Assessment Officer -)

  • 김진억
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2023
  • 연구목적: 안전보건공단에서는 위험성평가를 용이하게 하기 위해 웹 기반의 KRAS 개발하여 각 사업장의 유형별 평가 모델을 제공하고 있다. 위험성평가의 이해를 돕기위해 민간 기관에서는 위험성평가 담당자 교육을 개설하여 운영하고 있다. 기업의 규모에 따른 제조업 위험성평가 담당자 교육의 효과성을 분석할 것이다. 연구방법: 2017년부터 2021년까지 5년 이내 위험성평가 담당자 교육을 이수한 670개 사업장을 대상으로 SPSS 22를 이용하여, 재해 발생 관련 데이터를 통해, 100인을 기준으로 100인 미만 집단과 100인 이상 집단을 나누어 상관분석과, t-검정을 통해 재해율을 분석하였다. 연구결과: 가설 1번~5번 채택, 5~8번 기각 되었다. 결론: 100인 이상의 기업 교육을 대상으로 한 기업의 규모에 따른 교육과정의 편성을 고려하고 위험성평가 인정 시의 혜택을 상향하는 부분에 대하여 제고해 볼 수 있다.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment of a typical Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant (NGCCPP) control building

  • A. Can Zulfikar;Seyhan Okuyan Akcan;Ali Yesilyurt;Murat Eroz;Tolga Cimili
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제35권6호
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    • pp.581-591
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    • 2023
  • North Anatolian Fault Zone is tectonically active with recent earthquakes (Mw7.6 1999-Kocaeli and Mw7.2 1999-Düzce earthquakes) and it passes through Marmara region, which is highly industrialized, densely populated and economically important part of Turkey. Many power plants, located in Marmara region, are exposed to high seismic hazard. In this study, open source OpenQuake software has been used for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of Marmara region and risk assessment for the specified energy facility. The SHARE project seismic zonation model has been used in the analysis with the regional sources, NGA GMPEs and site model logic trees. The earthquake hazard results have been compared with the former and existing earthquake resistant design regulations in Turkey, TSC 2007 and TBSCD 2018. In the scope of the study, the seismic hazard assessment for a typical natural gas combined cycle power plant located in Marmara region has been achieved. The seismic risk assessment has been accomplished for a typical control building located in the power plant using obtained seismic hazard results. The structural and non-structural fragility functions and a consequence model have been used in the seismic risk assessment. Based on the seismic hazard level with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, considered for especially these type of critical structures, the ratios of structural and non-structural loss to the total building cost were obtained as 8.8% and 45.7%, respectively. The results of the study enable the practical seismic risk assessment of the critical facility located on different regions.

건설공사의 확률적 위험도분석 시스템 모형 및 해석방법 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment System Model and Methods for Construction Projects)

  • 조효남;최현호;김윤배
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1999년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents probabilistic risk assessment system model and methods for general construction projects and demonstrates the applicability of the approach to a specific subway construction project. The proposed system model entitled Integrated Risk Assessment System(IRAS) for construction projects is composed of four steps, which is newly reorganized and improved in order to be easily adjusted for a systematic PRA of construction projects. Based on the proposed model, and integrated prototype software is then developing for computer-aided PRA of construction projects under the environment of the graphic-user interface, which will be successfully applied to construction projects.

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Predictive Modeling for Microbial Risk Assessment (MRA) from the Literature Experimental Data

  • Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2009
  • One of the most important aspects of conducting this microbial risk assessment (MRA) is determining the model in microbial behaviors in food systems. However, to fully these modeling, large expenditures or newly laboratory experiments will be spent to do it. To overcome these problems, it has to be considered to develop the new strategies that can be used data in the published literatures. This study is to show whether or not the data set from the published experimental data has more value for modeling for MRA. To illustrate this suggestion, as example of data set, 4 published Salmonella survival in Cheddar cheese reports were used. Finally, using the GInaFiT tool, survival was modeled by nonlinear polynomial regression model describing the effect of temperature on Weibull model parameters. This model used data in the literatures is useful in describing behavior of Salmonella during different time and temperature conditions of cheese ripening.

석면 해체 작업의 위험성평가모델 비교 분석 (A Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment Models for Asbestos Demolition)

  • 김동규;김민승;이수민;김유진;한승우
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.99-100
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    • 2022
  • As the danger of exposure to the asbestos has been revealed, the importance of demolition asbestos in existing buildings has been raised. Extensive body of study has been conducted to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, but there were confined types of variables caused by not reflecting categorical information and limitations in collecting quantitative information. Thus, this study aims to derive a model that predicts the risk in workplace of demolition asbestos by collecting categorical and continuous variables. For this purpose, categorical and continuous variables were collected from asbestos demolition reports, and the risk assessment score was set as the dependent variable. In this study, the influence of each variable was identified using logistic regression, and the risk prediction model methodologies were compared through decision tree regression and artificial neural network. As a result, a conditional risk prediction model was derived to evaluate the risk of demolition asbestos, and this model is expected to be used to ensure the safety of asbestos demolition workers.

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