• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk analysis and estimation

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Stochastic Self-similarity Analysis and Visualization of Earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 발생한 지진의 통계적 자기 유사성 분석 및 시각화)

  • JaeMin Hwang;Jiyoung Lim;Hae-Duck J. Jeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2023
  • The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

Estimation of Partial Safety Factors and Target Failure Probability Based on Cost Optimization of Rubble Mound Breakwaters (경사식 방파제의 비용 최적화에 기초한 부분안전계수 및 목표파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck;Burcharth, Hans F.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2010
  • The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors were evaluated by applying the cost optimization to the rubble mound breakwaters in Korea. The applied method was developed by Hans F. Burcharth and John D. Sorensen in relation to the PIANC Working Group 47. The optimum return period was determined as 50 years in many cases and was found as 100 years in the case of high real interest rate. Target failure probability was suggested by using the probabilities of failure corresponding to the optimum return period and those of reliability analysis of existing structures. The final target failure probability is about 60% for the initial limit state of the national design standard and then the overall safety factor is calculated as 1.09. It is required that the nominal diameter and weight of armor are respectively 9% and 30% larger than those of the existing design method. Moreover, partial safety factors considering the cost optimization were compared with those calculated by Level 2 analysis and a fairly good agreement was found between the two methods especially the failure probability less than 40%.

Traveltime estimation of first arrivals and later phases using the modified graph method for a crustal structure analysis (지각구조 해석을 위한 수정 그래프법을 이용한 초동 및 후기 시간대 위상의 주시 추정)

  • Kubota, Ryuji;Nishiyama, Eiichiro;Murase, Kei;Kasahara, Junzo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.105-113
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    • 2009
  • The interpretation of observed waveform characteristics identified in refraction and wide-angle reflection data increases confidence in the crustal structure model obtained. When calculating traveltimes and raypaths, wavefront methods on a regular grid based on graph theory are robust even with complicated structures, but basically compute only first arrivals. In this paper, we develop new algorithms to compute traveltimes and raypaths not only for first arrivals, but also for fast and later reflection arrivals, later refraction arrivals, and converted waves between P and S, using the modified wavefront method based on slowness network nodes mapped on a multi-layer model. Using the new algorithm, we can interpret reflected arrivals, Pg-later arrivals, strong arrivals appearing behind Pn, triplicated Moho reflected arrivals (PmP) to obtain the shape of the Moho, and phases involving conversion between P and S. Using two models of an ocean-continent transition zone and an oceanic ridge or seamount, we show the usefulness of this algorithm, which is confirmed by synthetic seismograms using the 2D Finite Difference Method (2D-FDM). Characteristics of arrivals and raypaths of the two models differ from each other in that using only first-arrival traveltime data for crustal structure analysis involves risk of erroneous interpretation in the ocean-continent transition zone, or the region around a ridge or seamount.

Estimation of Climatological Standard Deviation Distribution (기후학적 평년 표준편차 분포도의 상세화)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-ock;Kim, Dae-jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2017
  • The distribution of inter-annual variation in temperature would help evaluate the likelihood of a climatic risk and assess suitable zones of crops under climate change. In this study, we evaluated two methods to estimate the standard deviation of temperature in the areas where weather information is limited. We calculated the monthly standard deviation of temperature by collecting temperature at 0600 and 1500 local standard time from 10 automated weather stations (AWS). These weather stations were installed in the range of 8 to 1,073m above sea level within a mountainous catchment for 2011-2015. The observed values were compared with estimates, which were calculated using a geospatial correction scheme to derive the site-specific temperature. Those estimates explained 88 and 86% of the temperature variations at 0600 and 1500 LST, respectively. However, it often underestimated the temperatures. In the spring and fall, it tended to had different variance (e.g., increasing or decreasing pattern) from lower to higher elevation with the observed values. A regression analysis was also conducted to quantify the relationship between the standard deviation in temperature and the topography. The regression equation explained a relatively large variation of the monthly standard deviation when lapse-rate corrected temperature, basic topographical variables (e.g., slope, and aspect) and topographical variables related to temperature (e.g., thermal belt, cold air drainage, and brightness index) were used. The coefficient of determination for the regression analysis ranged between 0.46 and 0.98. It was expected that the regression model could account for 70% of the spatial variation of the standard deviation when the monthly standard deviation was predicted by using the minimum-maximum effective range of topographical variables for the area.

Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors (평가인자 가중치에 대한 베이지안 추론과 민감도 분석을 통한 적정 하천설계빈도 결정)

  • Ryu, Jae Hee;Kim, Ji Eun;Lee, Jin-Young;Park, Kyung-Woon;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2022
  • In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers and decreased for 158 rivers.

METHYLMERCURY EXPOSURE IN CURRENT JAPANESE: ESTIMATION FROM HAIR ANALYSIS

  • Yasutake, Akira;Hachiya, Noriyuki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Health Society Conference
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    • 2005.12a
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    • pp.4-15
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    • 2005
  • Methylmercury (MeHg) is an environmental pollutant with neurotoxic effects on the central nervous system. The major exposure route of MeHg to humans is via consumption of fish and shellfish which accumulate the chemical through the food web in an aquatic environment. Hair mercury level is an excellent marker for MeHg exposure. We have been conducting a survey on hair mercury contents among general populations from 14 districts to estimate the current Japanese MeHg exposure level. Total mercury levels of all hair samples collected (12923 in total) were analyzed by the oxygen combustion-gold amalgamation method using an atomic absorption mercury detector. Multiple regression analysis revealed that mercury levels were significantly correlated with several covariates, such as sex, age, the amount of daily intake of total fish/shellfish, a preference for certain fish such as tuna or bonito, and artificial waving. The geometric means for the population without artificial waving were 2.47 and 1.65 ${\mu}g/g$ for males (n = 5623) and females (n = 3470), respectively. Hair mercury levels varied with age, and the variations were more significant in males. Since the difference between sexes was not evident at younger ages, some hormonal control might also be involved in the mercury uptake by human hair. The average mercury levels in our hair samples varied among the sampling districts. Tuna is a major carnivorous fish with high mercury accumulations that is often consumed in Japan. The amount of fish consumption and the preference rate far tuna would appear to be responsible far the regional variation in hair mercury levels in Japan. Recently, a provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) of MeHg was revised by 61st JECFA to 1.6 ${\mu}g/kg/week$, which was about half that of the Japanese standard, and corresponded to a hair level of 2.2 ppm. The distribution of hair mercury levels in Japanese populations in the present study indicated that 25% of the Japanese females of child-bearing age were estimated to be exposed to MeHg over the PTWI level. This would reflect the high Japanese consumption of marine products. However, not only mercury contamination, but also the nutritional benefit may have to be considered when discussing the risk involved in the current level of fish and shellfish consumption in Japan.

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A Case Study on the Estimation of Forest Work Load Index in the Type of Forest Tending Operation (숲가꾸기사업 유형별 산림작업부하지수 추정을 위한 사례연구)

  • Sung-Min Park;Hyeong-keun Kweon;Sung-Min Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.3
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    • pp.303-321
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    • 2023
  • To develop the Forest Work Load Index (FWLI) for estimating the work intensity of forest workers, a study focused on forest tending was conducted. To estimate the FWLI, we used the Ovako Working Posture Analysis System (OWAS) and the Work Load Index (WLI). The OWAS is a prominent method used for analyzing musculoskeletal load in work tasks, and WLI is a prominent method used for analyzing the work intensity of workers. The PRI values analyzed for each forest tending project were 185.3 (Thinning), 150.6 (Pruning), 181.1 (Thinning for Forest Fire Prevention), and 197.0 (Thinning for Young Trees). The WLI values, calculated on the basis of the measured heart rates, were 59.5% (Thinning), 53.5% (Pruning), 56.2% (Thinning for Forest Fire Prevention), and 62.3% (Thinning for Young Trees). The FWLI was calculated using the analyzed PRI and WLI values. The FWLI values for the forest tending project were 110.2 (Thinning), 80.7 (Pruning), 102.1 (Thinning for Forest Fire Prevention), and 123.0 (Thinning for Young Trees). The FWLI developed in this study can be used to quantitatively compare the workloads of forest workers. In the future, the analyzed FWLI can be used as a basis for improving forest workers' postures and comparing workloads across different forest projects.

A Landscape Ecological Model for Assessing the Korean Urban Forests (도시숲 평가를 위한 경관생태학적 모형 개발)

  • Oh, Jeong-Hak;Kwon, Jin-O;You, Ju-Han;Kim, Kyung-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.178-185
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the effectiveness of the biotope model in applying and developing Korean urban forests. We found that there are 17 biotope assessment indicators, including forest layer structure, site conditions, ratio of broad-leaved trees, species richness, etc. In terms of correlation analysis between indicators, the stand ages and the period of space formation have the highest relativity(coefficient 0.684). On the other hand, indicators that have negative relativity are layer structure and risk, with a coefficient of -0.412. Ten models were developed for the multiple regression analysis. 10 variables(site conditions(X2), ratio of broad-leaved trees(X3) and so forth except layer structure(X1), species richness(X4)) were found to have a 95% significance level The results from comparing the regression model and adding-up estimation matrix, the most accurate one was Model 3, which has a 91.7% out of the 10 models. However more monitoring will be needed to improve the accuracy of models for the Korean urban forests in future.

A Study of the Velocity Distribution and Vorticity Measurement in the Pump Sump Using PIV (PIV를 이용한 흡수조 내 유속분포 및 와류강도 측정에 대한 연구)

  • Byeon, Hyun Hyuk;Kim, Seo Jun;Yoon, Byung Man
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2020
  • The climate change occurring all over the world increases the risk, specially in urban area, Accordingly, rainwater pumping station expansion is required than before. In order to increase the efficiency of the rainwater pumping station, the analysis of flow characteristics in the pump sump is needed for vortex control. Many efforts have been made to illuminate the vortex behavior using PIV, but any reliable results have not been obtained yet, because of the limitations in image capturing and dependency of measured velocity values on the interrogation area and time interval used for velocity calculation. In this study, therefore, experiments were carried out to find out the limitation of PIV and estimate the validation of the velocity values associated with the analysis parameters such as interrogation area, time interval, grid size. For the experimental condition used in this study, the limitation of PIV and the effects of parameters on the velocity estimation are presented.

The Study on Risk Factors Analysis and Improvement of VDT Syndrome in Nuclear Medicine (핵의학과 Video Display Terminals Syndrome 유해 요인 조사 및 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Soo;Kim, Seung-Jeong;Lee, Hong-Jae;Kim, Jin-Eui;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Han, In-Im;Joo, Yung-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Recently, Department of Nuclear Medicine have an interest in Video Display Terminals (VDT) syndrome including musculoskeletal disorders, ophthalmologic disorders, trouble of electromagnetic waves and stress disorders occur to VDT workers as the growing number of users and rapid pace of service period supply in large amount. This study research on the actual condition for VDT syndrome in Nuclear Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH), discover the problem and draw a plan of upcoming improvement. The aim of this study establish awareness about VDT syndrome and is to prevent for it in the long run. Materials and Methods: Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is composed Principle part, Pediatric part and PET center. We estimated risk factors visit in each part directly. Estimation method use "Check list for VDT work" of Wonjin working environment health laboratory and check list is condition of VDT work, condition of work tables, condition of chairs, condition of keyboards, condition of monitors, working position, character of health management and other working environment. Analysis result is verified in Department of Occupational and Environment, Hallym University Sacred Heard Hospital. Results: As a result of analysis, VDT condition of Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is rule good. In case of work tables, recent of things are suitable to users upon the ergonomical planning, but 15% of existing work tables are below the standard value. In case of chairs are suitable, but 5% of theirs lost optimum capacity become superannuated. The keyboards are suitable for 98% of standard value. In case of monitors, angle control of screen is possible of all, but positioning control is impossible for 38%. In case of working position, 10% is fixed positioning for long time and some of the items researched unsuitable things for standard. At health management point, needed capable of improvement. Also, other working condition as lighting, temperature, noise and ventilation, discovered the problem, but is sufficient to advice value. Conclusion: VDT syndrome is occurrences of possibility continuously, come economical expensive about improvement, is inherent in various causes and originate without your knowledge. So, there is need systematic management system. In Nuclear Medicine, VDT syndrome make it better that constant interest and effort as improvement of ergonomical working environment, improvement of working procedure, regular exercise and steady stretching, and can be prevented fairly. This promote physical and mental condition of worker in top form in comfortable working environment, so this is judged by enlargement of operations efficiency and rising of satisfaction ratings of the inside client.

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