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http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2022.42.5.0617

Estimation of the Hydrological Design Frequency of Local Rivers Using Bayesian Inference and a Sensitivity Analysis of Evaluation Factors  

Ryu, Jae Hee (Hanyang University)
Kim, Ji Eun (Hanyang University)
Lee, Jin-Young (Korea Rural Community Corporation)
Park, Kyung-Woon (Hanyang University)
Kim, Tae-Woong (Hanyang University)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.42, no.5, 2022 , pp. 617-626 More about this Journal
Abstract
In Korea, annual precipitation and its variability have gradually increased since modern meteorological observations began, and the risk of disasters has also been increasing due to significant regional variations and recent abnormal climate conditions. Given that damage from storms and floods mainly occurs around rivers, it is crucial to determine the appropriate design frequency for river-related projects. This study examined existing design practices used to determine hydrological design frequencies and suggested a new method to determine appropriate design frequencies. The study collected available data pertaining to seven evaluation factors, specifically the basin areas, shape parameters, channel slopes, stream orders, backwater effect reaches, extreme rainfall frequencies, and urbanized flood inundation areasfor 413 local rivers in Chungcheongnam-do in Korea. The estimated weights for areas of extreme rainfall frequencies and urbanized flood inundation were found to be 18, having a great effect on determining the design frequency. Compared with the established design frequency in previous government reports, the estimated design frequency increased for 255 rivers and decreased for 158 rivers.
Keywords
Bayesian inference; Sensitivity analysis; Design frequency; Evaluation factor; Weight;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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