• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제33권10호
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• pp.1163-1170
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• 2009

Reliability analysis is of great importance in the advanced product design, which is to evaluate reliability due to the associated uncertainties. There are three types of uncertainties: the first is the aleatory uncertainty which is related with inherent physical randomness that is completely described by a suitable probability model. The second is the epistemic uncertainty, which results from the lack of knowledge due to the insufficient data. These two uncertainties are encountered in the input variables such as dimensional tolerances, material properties and loading conditions. The third is the metamodel uncertainty which arises from the approximation of the response function. In this study, an integrated method for the reliability analysis is proposed that can address all these uncertainties in a single Bayesian framework. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is employed to facilitate the simulation of the posterior distribution. Mathematical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed method.

• Journal of Multimedia Information System
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.255-262
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• 2015

The modern manufacturing systems and technologies produce products that are more accurate day by day. This can be reached mainly by improvement the manufacturing process with at the same time restricting more and more the quality specifications and reducing the uncertainty in part. The main objective an industry becomes to lower the part's variability, since the less variability - the better is product. One of the part of this task is measuring the object's uncertainty. The main purpose of this study is to understand the application of bootstrap method for uncertainty evaluation. Bootstrap method is a collection of sample re-use techniques designed to estimate standard errors and confidence intervals. In the case study a surface of an automobile engine block - (Top view side) is measured by Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) and analyzed for uncertainty using Geometric Least Squares in complex with bootstrap method. The designed experiment is composed by three similar measurements (the same features in unique reference system), but with different points (5, 10, 20) concentration at each level. Then each cloud of points was independently analyzed by means of non-linear Least Squares, after estimated results have been reported. A MatLAB software tool used to generate new samples using bootstrap function. The results of the designed experiment are summarized and show that the bootstrap method provides the possibility to evaluate the uncertainty without repeating the Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) measurements many times, i.e. potentially can reduce the measuring time.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2004

Necessity to address engineering system uncertainties in design processes has long been acknowledged. To obtain quality of product, a safety factor is traditionally used by many design engineers due to its easy of use and comprehension. However, the safety factor approach often yields either conservative or unreliable designs, since it ignores the type of probability distribution and the mechanism of uncertainty propagation from the input to the output. For a consistent reliability-based design, two fundamental issues must be investigated thoroughly. First, the design-decision process that clearly identifies a mechanism of uncertainty propagation under system uncertainties needs to be developed, which must be an efficient and accurate process. To identify the mechanism more effectively, an adaptive probability analysis is proposed by adaptively setting probability levels through a posteriori error estimation. The second is to develop the design process that not only yields a high quality design but also a cost-effective optimum design from manufacturing point of view. As a result, a response surface methodology is specially developed for RBDO, thus enhancing numerical challenges of efficiency and complicatedness. Side crashworthiness application is used to demonstrate the integrated design process for product and manufacturing process design.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.89-100
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• 2003

This study is identified the characteristics of housing product through housebuilders' strategies. As a methodology for this study, literature survey and questionnaire survey were used. Questionnaires have been done on mail to 232 housebuilders and return rate was 34.1%. In summary, housing product can be characterized long gestation period, periodically building cycle, future uncertainty of market volatility, maximization of land development gain, utilization of public fund for continuous building activity, moral hazard by accidentally bankrupcy. Therefore private housebuilding could be defined speculative industry.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.754-763
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• 2001

The purpose of this study was to examine: 1) the differences in the automation level by company characteristics(i.e., product category, product type, firm size); 2) the effects of company context(i.e., environmental uncertainty, task uncertainty) on the automation level; and 3) the effect of the automation level on manufacturing performance(i.e., quality, flexibility, time, cost). Data were collected from a mail survey. Four hundred eighty two questionaries were mailed to apparel manufacturers nationwide, and 60 responses were analyzed. The results revealed that: 1) mens and womens wear manufacturers and large manufacturers(i.e., the number of employees, sales volume) showed higher automation level; 2) environmental complexity positively affected the automation level; and 3) the automation level had a positive effect only on quality performance.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제41권2호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2016

Yield management, which originated from the U.S. service industry, uses pricing techniques and information systems to make demand management decisions. Demand uncertainty is an important factor in the area of demand management. A key strategy to reduce the effects of demand uncertainty is substitution. The most generally known type of substitution is inventory-driven substitution, in which consumers substitute an out-of-stock product by buying a similar or other type of product. Another type of substitution is the price-driven substitution, which occurs as a result of price changes. In this research, we consider two market segments that have unique perishable products. We develop yield management optimization models with stochastic demand based on the newsvendor model where inventory-driven and price-driven substitutions are allowed between products in the two market segments. The most significant contribution of this research is that it develops analytical procedures to determine optimal solutions and considers both types of substitution. We also provide detailed theoretical analysis and numerical examples.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.275-285
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• 2004

This paper aims to construct an effective decision making model on selection of product design in product development using fuzzy AHP technique. It is expected that this paper contributes to enhancement of company's market competitiveness by shortening the lead time to develop a new product and minimize initial investment. The proposed model using fuzzy AHP enables quick decision making by integrating and analyzing all customer requirements related to a product. In addition, it can deal with vagueness and uncertainty of decision making process using fuzzy set theory. Decision making processes for evaluating the best selection of product design are also constructed to describe the exact concept of development. A tennis racket is shown as an example. The proposed model is expected to be applied in various fields of managerial decision making processes as well as of product development process.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.22-43
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• 2017

It is urgently-needed to construct a green supply chain (GSC) from collection of used products through recycling of them to sales of products using the recycled parts. Besides, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty in product demand as a risk in a GSC. This study proposes the optimal operations for a GSC with a retailer and a manufacturer. A retailer pays an incentive for collection of used products from customers and sells a single type of products in a market. A manufacturer produces the products ordered by the retailer, using recyclable parts with acceptable quality and compensates the collection cost of used products as to the recycled parts. This paper discusses the following risk attitudes: risk-neutral attitude, risk-averse attitude, and risk-prone attitude. Using mean-variance analysis, the optimal decisions for product order quantity, collection incentive, and lower limit of quality level, in the decentralized GSC (DGSC) and the integrated GSC (IGSC) are made. DGSC optimizes the utility function of each member. IGSC does that of the whole system. The analysis numerically investigates how (i) risk attitude and (ii) quality of recyclable parts affect the optimal operations. Supply chain coordination between GSC members to shift IGSC from DGSC is discussed.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.141-168
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• 2014

Purchasing through Internet shopping mall has more uncertainty compared with offline shopping mall. Previous studies have presented that trust plays a role of reducing uncertainty and increasing purchasing intention. In this study, we suggest that third-party assurance and word-of-mouth contribute to the formation of trust. In addition, we also propose that ease of product evaluation plays moderating roles in the relationships between third-party assurance, word-of-mouth and trust. For this study, we collected sample data from two groups consisting of online shoppers purchasing the search goods and experience goods categorized by type of ease of product evaluation. Empirical results show that word-of-mouth and third-party assurance have different effects on trust in two groups. The third-party assurance has a stronger impact on trust in online shopping group of the search goods than in the experience goods, while word-of-mouth in the online community has a stronger impact on trust in online shopping group of the experience goods than in the search goods. We expect that this result will provide researchers and managers who are interested in trust formation factors in online shopping mall with useful theoretical and practical implications.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.161-167
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• 2021

This paper presents the method to quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of the semi-empirical Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model for Himawari-8/AHI. The uncertainty of BRDF modeling was affected by various issues such as assumption of model and number of observations, thus, it is difficult that evaluating the performance of BRDF modeling using simple uncertainty equations. Therefore, in this paper, Monte-Carlo method, which is most dependable method to analyze dynamic complex systems through iterative simulation, was used. The 1,000 input datasets for analyzing the uncertainty of BRDF modeling were generated using the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) simulation with MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF product. Then, we randomly selected data according to the number of observations from 4 to 35 in the input dataset and performed BRDF modeling using them. Finally, the uncertainty was calculated by comparing reproduced surface reflectance through the BRDF model and simulated surface reflectance using 6S RTM and expressed as bias and root-mean-square-error (RMSE). The bias was negative for all observations and channels, but was very small within 0.01. RMSE showed a tendency to decrease as the number of observations increased, and showed a stable value within 0.05 in all channels. In addition, our results show that when the viewing zenith angle is 40° or more, the RMSE tends to increase slightly. This information can be utilized in the uncertainty analysis of subsequently retrieved geophysical variables.