• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.453-461
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• 1999

The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the structure and machinery compo-nents. In this study the practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function is shown with a $135,000m^3$ LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution taht determine the stress spectrum are dis-cussed. At the end some of uncertainties associated with fatigue life prediction are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors expressed in combination of probability density function and S-N data is proposed. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter and stress block. The conser-vative fatigue design can be achieved when using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divded into more stress blocks.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1996년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 고려대학교, 서울; 26 Oct. 1996
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• pp.147-150
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• 1996

A homing torpedo's performance can be expressed a function of many variables, i.e. technical and tactical variables. When designing a homing torpedo, these variables have to be decided upon. The system effectiveness of a homing torpedo can be determined by analyzing of these variables. This paper describes a procedure of simulation metamodelling using a Factor Analysis methodology. A simulation model was used in order to obtain the data base for analyzing detection probability of torpedo. By analyzing the main and interaction effects these variables on the analysis of detection probability, we will show the importance of certain variables, of a homing torpedo.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2004

랜덤동요된 조화가진력을 받는 임팩트시스템의 비선형거동을 개발된 반해석적절차에 의해 확률영역에서 분석하였다. 반해석적절차는 path-integral solution을 이용하여 임팩트시스템의 추계론적 미분방정식으로부터 구함으로 얻어진다. 결합확률밀도함수의 전개를 구하고 시스템의 비선형거동 특성인 혼돈거동에 대하여 분석하고 노이즈의 영향을 시간영역과 확률영역에서 알아보았다. 결과로부터 반해석적절차는 결합확률밀도함수를 통하여 임팩트시스템의 거동에 대한 정보를 제공하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 노이즈의 영향은 혼돈거동의 특성을 약화시키며 궁극적으로 사라지게 함을 알 수 있었으며 또한 혼돈거동의 특성이 상대적으로 높은 노이즈아래에서도 남아있는 것을 밝혔다. 결합확률밀도함수는 응답앙상블이 약정상과정임을 확인시켜 주었다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.147-155
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• 2023

This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

• 음성과학
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.7-21
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• 1999

This paper proposes an improved training procedure in speech recognition based on the continuous density of the Hidden Markov Model (CDHMM). Of the three parameters (initial state distribution probability, state transition probability, output probability density function (p.d.f.) of state) governing the CDHMM model, we focus on the third parameter and propose an efficient algorithm that determines the p.d.f. of each state. It is known that the resulting CDHMM model converges to a local maximum point of parameter estimation via the iterative Expectation Maximization procedure. Specifically, we propose two independent algorithms that can be embedded in the segmental K -means training procedure by replacing relevant key steps; the adaptation of the number of mixture Gaussian p.d.f. and the initialization using the CDHMM parameters previously estimated. The proposed adaptation algorithm searches for the optimal number of mixture Gaussian humps to ensure that the p.d.f. is consistently re-estimated, enabling the model to converge toward the global maximum point. By applying an appropriate threshold value, which measures the amount of collective changes of weighted variances, the optimized number of mixture Gaussian branch is determined. The initialization algorithm essentially exploits the CDHMM parameters previously estimated and uses them as the basis for the current initial segmentation subroutine. It captures the trend of previous training history whereas the uniform segmentation decimates it. The recognition performance of the proposed adaptation procedures along with the suggested initialization is verified to be always better than that of existing training procedure using fixed number of mixture Gaussian p.d.f.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.887-894
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• 2009

The two-stage minimum risk point estimation of mean, the probability of success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials, is considered for the case where loss is taken to be symmetrized relative squared error of estimation, plus a fixed cost per observation. First order asymptotic expansions are obtained for large sample properties of two-stage procedure. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the expected sample size that minimizes the risk and to examine its finite sample behavior.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.28-34
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• 2006

A procedure of estimating failure probability is demonstrated for a pressurized pipe of CrMo steel used at $538^{\circ}C$. Probabilistic fracture mechanics were employed considering variations of pressure loading, material properties and geometry. Probability density functions of major material variables were determined by statistical analyses of implemented data obtained by previous experiments. Distributions of the major variables were reflected in Monte Carlo simulation and failure probability as a function of operating time was determined. The creep crack growth life assessed by conventional deterministic approach was shown to be conservative compared with those obtained by probabilistic one. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was also conducted to understand the most influencing variables to the residual life analysis. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.18-27
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• 2013

This paper presents a method for assessing the wind energy potential at complex terrain using probability distribution. And the proper probability models of the parameters estimating the wind energy are presented. Finally a mixture-Weibull determined by numerical methods procedure are proposed to assess the probability distribution of the energy potential at a site. The developed method is applied to the Kwanjungchun Bridge and compared with wind records which the neighboring weather station.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.37-50
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• 2002

Simultaneous estimation of accuracy and probability corresponding to a prediction interval is considered in this study. Traditional application of confidence interval forecasting consists in evaluation of interval limits for a given significance level. The wider is this interval, the higher is probability and the lower is the forecast precision. In this paper a measure of stochastic forecast accuracy is introduced, and a procedure for balanced estimation of both the predicting accuracy and confidence probability is elaborated. Solution can be obtained in an optimizing approach. Suggested method is applied to constructing confidence intervals for parameters estimated by normal and t distributions

• Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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• 제1권4호
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• pp.266-271
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• 2014

The survivability of the naval ship is the capability of a warship to avoid or withstand a hostile environment. The survivability of the naval ship assessed by three categories (susceptibility, vulnerability and recoverability). The magnitude of susceptibility of a warship encountering with threat is dependent upon the attributes of detection equipment and weapon system. In this paper, as a part of a naval ship's survivability analysis, an assessment process model for the ship's susceptibility analysis technique is developed. Naval ship's survivability emphasizing the susceptibility is assessed by the probability of detection, and the probability of hit. Considering the radar cross section (RCS), the assessment procedure for the susceptibility is described. It's emphasizing the simplified calculation model based on the probability density function for probability of hit. Assuming the probability of hit given a both single-hit and multiple-hit, the susceptibility is accessed for a RCS and the hit probability for a rectangular target is applied for a given threat.