• ETRI Journal
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.712-720
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• 2020

Recently, to make the best use of limited and precious spectrum resources, spectrum sharing between satellite and cellular networks has received much interest. In this study, we mathematically analyze the success probability of a fixed (satellite) earth station (FES) based on a stochastic geometry framework. Both the FES and base stations (BSs) are assumed to be equipped with a directional antenna, and the location and the number of BSs are modeled based on the Poisson point process. Furthermore, an exclusion zone is considered, in which the BSs are prohibited from locating in a circular zone with a certain radius around the FES to protect it from severe interference from the cellular BSs. We validate the analytical results on the success probability of the cognitive satellite-terrestrial network with directional antennas by comparing it using extensive computer simulations and show the effect of the exclusion zone on the success probability at the FES. It is shown that the exclusion zone-based interference mitigation technique significantly improves the success probability as the exclusion zone increases.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.850-858
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• 2011

The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.48 no.7
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• pp.537-546
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• 2020

The reliability used as a performance indicator during the development of space launch vehicle should be validated by the launch success probability, and the launch data need to be fed back for reliability management. In this paper, the launch data of space launch vehicles around the world were investigated and statistically analyzed for the success probabilities according to the launch vehicle models and maturity. The Bayesian estimation of launch success probability was reviewed and analyzed by comparing the estimated success probabilities using several prior distributions and the statistical success probability. We presented the method of generating prior distribution function and considerations for Bayesian estimation.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.31-43
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• 2020

Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.55-62
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• 2018

The MTD-based approach changes various operating parameters dynamically so that the vulnerability of the system can be protected from the malicious attack. In this paper, random/serial scanning/jamming attack success probabilities have been mathematically analyzed and verified through simulation to improve the security of the wireless communication systems in which the MTD-SDR technologies are applied. As a result, for random scanning attacks, attack success probability increases as the change period of transmission channel increases, while for random jamming attacks there is no change. The attack success probability patterns for serial attacks are similar to those of random attacks, but when the change period of transmission channel approaches to the total number of transmission channels, the success probability of serial attack is getting greater than that of random attack, up to twice in jamming attacks and up to 36% in scanning attacks.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.27-36
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• 2001

This Paper proposes a new methodology for assessing the reliability of an accident management, which Is based on the reliability physics and the scheme to generate dynamic event tree. The methodology consists of 3 main steps: screening; uncertainty propagation; and probability estimation. Sensitivity analysis is used for screening the variables of significance. Latin Hypercube sampling technique and MAAP code are used for uncertainty propagation, and the dynamic event tree generation method is used for the estimation of non-success probability of implementing an accident management strategy. This approach is applied in assessing the non-success probability of implementing a cavity flooding strategy, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems during the sequence of station blackout at the reference plant.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.331-332
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• 2007

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.67-75
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• 2008

In this paper, we analyze the performance of Follower Noise Jamming(FNJ) considering three practical tracking parameters such as tracking bandwidth, tracking time and tracking success probability. The performance of FNJ is compared with that of Partial-Band Noise Jamming(PBNJ) in terms of Symbol Error Rate(SER) at the communication receiver under the assumed typical operation model. It is observed that the performance of FNJ is non-linearly dependent on the tracking bandwidth, the tracking time and the tracking success probability. As we can easily expect, it is also observed that the performance of FNJ is better than that of the PBNJ. Finally, it is shown that, for a fixed tracking bandwidth, the combinations of the required tracking time and the tracking success probability which satisfy a certain required SER.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.3-11
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• 2008

Robust design pioneered by Dr. G. Taguchi has been applied to versatile engineering problems for improving quality. Since 1980s, the Taguchi method has been introduced to numerical optimization, complementing the deficiencies of deterministic optimization, which is often called the robust optimization. In this study, the robust optimization strategy is proposed by considering the robustness of objective and constraint functions. The statistics of responses in the functions are surrogated by kriging models. In addition, objective and/or constraint function is represented by the probability of success, thus facilitating robust optimization. The mathematical problem and the two-bar design problem are investigated to show the validity of the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.237-239
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• 2007

In the paper, we analyze the performances of random access channels in multi-service multi-user OFDMA systems. The resource of the random access channels in OFDMA systems is the nubmer of available sub-channels and PN-codes. For given available sub-channels and PN-codes. we analyze the performances of the random access channels of OFDMA systems according to three resource allocation methods (resource full sharing, resource partial sharing, resource partition) in tenus of the access success probability, the blocking probability, the access delay and the throughput of each service class. Further, we find the feasible region of the access probability of each service class in which the allowable minimum access success probability, the allowable maximum blocking probability and the allowable maximum access delay are satisfied. The results also can be utilized to find proper region of the access probabilities of each service class for differentiated quality of service(QoS)s, and for the system operations.