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http://dx.doi.org/10.5139/JKSAS.2020.48.7.537

A Study on the Estimation of Launch Success Probability for Space Launch Vehicles Using Bayesian Method  

Yoo, Seung-Woo (Korea Aerospace Research Institute)
Kim, In-Gul (Department of Aerospace Engineering, Chungnam National University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences / v.48, no.7, 2020 , pp. 537-546 More about this Journal
Abstract
The reliability used as a performance indicator during the development of space launch vehicle should be validated by the launch success probability, and the launch data need to be fed back for reliability management. In this paper, the launch data of space launch vehicles around the world were investigated and statistically analyzed for the success probabilities according to the launch vehicle models and maturity. The Bayesian estimation of launch success probability was reviewed and analyzed by comparing the estimated success probabilities using several prior distributions and the statistical success probability. We presented the method of generating prior distribution function and considerations for Bayesian estimation.
Keywords
Space Launch Vehicle; Reliability Analysis; Mission Reliability; Launch Success Probability; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Bayesian Estimation;
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