Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences (한국항공우주학회지)

The Korean Society for Aeronautical and Space Sciences (한국항공우주학회)
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A Study on the Estimation of Launch Success Probability for Space Launch Vehicles Using Bayesian Method

베이지안 기법을 적용한 우주발사체의 발사 성공률 추정에 관한 연구

  • Yoo, Seung-Woo (Korea Aerospace Research Institute) ;
  • Kim, In-Gul (Department of Aerospace Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • Received : 2020.04.07
  • Accepted : 2020.06.06
  • Published : 2020.07.01
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Abstract

The reliability used as a performance indicator during the development of space launch vehicle should be validated by the launch success probability, and the launch data need to be fed back for reliability management. In this paper, the launch data of space launch vehicles around the world were investigated and statistically analyzed for the success probabilities according to the launch vehicle models and maturity. The Bayesian estimation of launch success probability was reviewed and analyzed by comparing the estimated success probabilities using several prior distributions and the statistical success probability. We presented the method of generating prior distribution function and considerations for Bayesian estimation.

우주발사체 개발과정에서 설계와 프로세스의 성능지표로 활용되는 신뢰도는 발사 성공률로 유효성이 확인되고, 반복된 발사를 통해 수집된 데이터는 신뢰도 관리를 위하여 피드백 되어야 한다. 본 논문에서는 전 세계 우주발사체의 발사 이력을 조사하여 발사체 모델이나 발사 운용을 통한 기술 성숙도에 따른 발사 성공률을 비교 분석하였고, 사전정보를 반영한 사전확률분포에 발사를 통해 관측된 데이터를 업데이트하는 베이지안 기법을 적용하여 다음 발사에서 예상되는 성공률을 추정하였다. 여러 유형의 사전확률분포를 사용하여 추정한 발사 성공률과 전통적인 통계 기법을 통해 산출한 성공률을 비교 분석하여 적절한 사전분포를 설정하는 방안을 검토하였고, 베이지안 기법을 적용하여 미래의 발사 성공률을 예측하기 위해 고려할 사항들을 제시하였다.

Keywords

References

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