• 한국학교수학회논문집
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.43-53
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• 1999

Two (second-grade) classes of Yu-song middle school were chosen to research the effect of the visualization in the learning of probability calculation at a middle school. One class, as an experiment class, was taught the probability calculation of probability unit by the visualization learning and the other, as a controlled class, was taught it by the traditional lecture, and then through the writing tests there was a verification on the effect of right after test and the delaying test after 3 weeks to examine the learning effect of high- and low-level groups. It was difficult for the students to visualize the problems of the probability calculation, but I suggested simple models to the students and helped them to learn meaningfully. As a result of this study, there showed statistically significant difference in high-level group in the right after test.(P< .05) In the delaying test after 3 weeks, there also showed statistically significant marks only in high-level group.(P< .05) The visualization in the learning of probability calculation took more affirmative effect in the experiment class than the comparative class only in high-level group. The students in low-level group has difficulties in the visualization activities, but all the students in high-and low-level group thought the visualization was a great help to them in learning probability calculation.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.123-131
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• 2001

Reliability calculation of a system is frequently required in industrial, military, and everyday life situations. For such a calculation, it is necessary to specify the configuration of components and subsystems, the failure mode of each component, and the states in which the system is classified as failed. In this paper, we are primary interested in the time to the first failure of a system. And we discuss failure probability of coherent system under various condition, especially focus on probability calculation of subsystem failure before system failure used by Bayes formula. Problem statement and general applications illustrated by several examples.

• 한국수학사학회지
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.81-98
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• 2009

확률은 현실 문제나 과학적인 문제의 해결을 위한 중요한 사고도구로 현대 사회에서 매우 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 그런데 선행연구에서 확률은 학생들이 이해하는데 많은 어려움을 나타내며 현실과 단절된 계산 체제로 지도되는 문제를 많이 지적한다. 이에 이 글에서는 중학교에서 확률을 처음 다루는 2학년 교과서에서 확률의 계산 중 두 사건이 동시에 일어날 확률 계산을 지도하는 방식과 현실에 기반하여 실생활이나 과학적인 문제 해결의 도구로 확률이 사용되는 방식을 면밀히 살펴보려고 한다. 이로부터 현재 우리 나라 교과서의 확률 지도방식의 특징과 논의점을 끌어내고자 한다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2004년도 학술발표회
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• pp.479-483
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• 2004

A new calculation method of expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater considering real tide occurrence has been proposed. A calculation method of expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater was proposed by Kweon and Suh (2003). In their calculation, the fluctuation of tidal elevation was expressed by the sinusoidal change that yields the uniform distribution of occurrence frequency. However, the realistic distribution of tidal elevation should influence on the overtopping chance. In this study, the occurrence frequency of tidal elevation obtained from the real sea is included. The tidal elevation used in this study is collected from the east coastal part of Korean peninsular. Analyzing the annual data of the tidal fluctuation measured hourly during 355 days, the distribution of occurrence frequency is formulated utilizing by the normal distribution with one peak. Among the calculation procedures of annual maximum wave height, wave height-period joint distribution, wave run-up height and occurrence frequency of tide, only the annual maximum wave height is again chosen randomly from normal distribution to consider the uncertainty. The others are treated by utilizing the distribution function or relationship itself, It is found that the inclusion of the variability of tidal elevation has great influence on the computation of the expected overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater. The bigger standard deviation of occurrence frequency is, the lower the overtopping probability of rubble mound breakwater is.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제54권10호
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• Architectural research
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.71-80
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• 2001

It is quite difficult to calculate the collapse probability of a system such as statically indeterminate structure that has many possible modes or paths to complete failure and the problem has remained essentially unsolved. A structure is synthesized by several components or elements and its capacity to resist the given loads is a function of the capacity of the individual element. Thus it is reasonable to assess the probability of failure of the system based upon those of its elements. This paper proposes an efficient technique to directly assess the reliability of a complex structural system from the reliabilities of its components or elements. The theory for the calculation of the probability of a structural system is presented. The target requirements of the method and the fundamental assumptions governing the method are clearly stated. A portal frame and two trusses are selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the method by comparing the results obtained from the proposed method to those from the existing methods in the literature.

• 한국해안해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해안해양공학회 1996년도 정기학술강연회 발표논문 초록집
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• pp.42-44
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• 1996

Recently due to repeatedly occurrence of flood, a lot of Chinese cities accept new design criteria for their protective project Most of them calculated by a certain type of probability distribution. In order to meet the demand of development economy the return period of design criteria is changed more longer and longer even 1000years, but the data which the calculation dependent on is only about 30-40 years. (omitted)

• 한국전자파학회논문지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.24-27
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• 2018

항공기용 레이다의 성능을 나타내는 최대 탐지 거리는 누적 탐지 확률로 규정된다. 이는 지상클러터에 의해 단일 탐지 확률이 거리에 따라 오르내리기 때문에 단일 탐지 확률로 탐지거리를 규정하기 어렵기 때문이다. 따라서 단조 증가하는 누적 탐지 확률을 이용하여 규정한다. 본 논문에서는 일정한 주기를 가지는 탐색 레이다에서 탐색 빔의 위치와 표적의 거리를 고려한 평균 누적 탐지 확률 계산법을 제시하며, 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션의 결과와 비교하여 동일함을 보였다. 수치적 계산에 의해 검증된 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 모델은 추후 다양한 시나리오에 대한 시스템의 성능을 평가하는 데에 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 전자공학회논문지A
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• 제30A권8호
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• pp.19-26
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• 1993

The bit error probability of Reed-Solomon/convolutional concatenated codes can be more exactly calculated by using a more approximate bound of the symbol error probability of the convolutional codes. This paper obtains the unequal symbol error bound of the convolutional codes, and applies to the calculation of the bit error probability of the concatenated codes. Our results are tighter than the earlier studied other bounds.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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• pp.464-466
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• 2004

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components unlike uses only aging failure probability in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type II Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than a traditional calculation method. This paper shows how to calculate the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates a exactness using real historical records of generator utilities in korea.