• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.799-807
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• 2020

This paper deals with identification of probabilistic design using reliability based robust optimization in structure design of automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of main structure member in the automatic salt collector were considered the random design variables including the uncertainty of corrosion that would be an inevitable hazardousness in the saltern work environment. The probabilistic constraint functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector. The reliability based robust optimum design problem was formulated such that the random design variables were determined by minimizing the weight of the automatic salt collector subject to the probabilistic strength performance constraints evaluating from reliability analysis. Mean value reliability method and adaptive importance sampling method were applied to the reliability evaluation in the reliability based robust optimization. The three sigma level quality was considered robustness in side constraints. The probabilistic optimum design results according to the reliability analysis methods were compared to deterministic optimum design results. The reliability based robust optimization using the mean value reliability method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic optimum structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.19 no.12
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• pp.70-79
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• 2020

This paper describes a comparative study of characteristics of probabilistic design using various reliability analysis methods in the structure design of an automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of the main structural member were considered to be random variables, including the uncertainty of corrosion, which would be an inevitable hazard in the work environment of the automatic salt collector. Probabilistic performance functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector structure. First-order reliability method, second-order reliability method, mean value reliability method, and adaptive importance sampling method were applied during the reliability analyses. The probabilistic design performances such as reliability probability and numerical costs based on the reliability analysis methods were compared to the Monte Carlo simulation results. The adaptive importance sampling method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.25-35
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• 2010

Settlement at reclamation area caused by secondary compression should be considered using spatial evaluating method because the thickness of consolidation layer varies at every location. Probabilistic method can be implemented to evaluate uncertainty of spatial distribution of secondary compression. This study spatially evaluated mean and standard deviation of secondary compression in the overall analyzing region using spatial distribution of consolidation thickness estimated by ordinary kriging method and statistical values of soil properties. And then, the area where secondary compression exceeds a design criterion at the specific time was evaluated using probabilistic method. It was observed that the area exceeding the design criterion increased as the variability of $C_{\alpha}/(1+e_o)$ increased or the probabilistic design criterion 0: decreased. It is considered that the probabilistic method can be used for the geotechnical design of soft ground when a probabilistic design criterion is established in the specification.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.399-406
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• 2021

It is a key issue in the tunnel design to evaluate the stability of the excavation face. Two efficient analytical models in the context of the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the limit analysis method (LAM) are used to carry out the deterministic calculations of the safety factor. The safety factor obtained by these two models agrees well with that provided by the numerical modelling by FLAC 3D, but consuming less time. A simple probabilistic approach based on the Mote-Carlo Simulation technique which can quickly calculate the probability distribution of the safety factor was used to perform the probabilistic analysis on the tunnel face stability. Both the cumulative probabilistic distribution and the probability density function in terms of the safety factor were obtained. The obtained results show the effectiveness of this probabilistic approach in the tunnel design.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.56-61
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• 2016

After Japanese Fukushima nuclear power plant accident caused by the beyond design basis earthquake and tsunami, it has turned to be a major challenge for nuclear safety. IAEA, US NRC and EU have provided new safety design standards for beyond design basis event, Domestic regulatory bodies have also enacted guidances for licensees and applicants on additional methods related to beyond design basis events. This paper describes several evaluation methods for applying to nuclear power plants piping for beyond design basis earthquake. As a results, energy method based on the absorbed energy on nuclear power plant, deterministic method following design code and theory, experience method considering past earthquake data and information and probabilistic methods similar to probabilistic risk assessment were reviewed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.03a
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• pp.707-714
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• 2009

The design response spectrum generally used in Korea is decided by the site coefficients determined by deterministic methodology, while it is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The design response spectrum has to be made using probabilistic method which includes uncertainties of ground motions and ground properties for coincide with probabilistic methodology of seismic hazard analysis. In this study probabilistic site coefficients were developed, which were defined by the results of site response analysis using a set of ground motion that was compatible with present seismic hazard map. The design response spectrum defined by probabilistic seismic coefficients resulted in lower spectrum in long period area and larger spectrum in short period area. Also, the maximum spectral accelerations in site class D and site class E were lower than one in site class C while in the previous design response spectrum the maximum spectral acceleration increased from site class A to E.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

The paper describes the preliminary ship design method using deterministic approach and probabilistic approach. In deterministic approach, there are computational aspects to applying not only the integration concurrently of principal dimension decisions and hull form variations but also hydrostatic coefficients that applied to optimization iterative process. Therefore, this paper developed that actual design concept at the preliminary ship design more than sequential design which separated in principal dimension decisions and hull form variations. Furthermore, a probabilistic approach at the preliminary ship design is applied to efficiently solve design information uncertainty that compared to deterministic approach.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.23-29
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• 2004

The design earthquake used for the seismic analysis and design of NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is determined by the deterministic or probabilistic methods. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA) for the nuclear power plant sites was performed for the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the nuclear power plant site had been completed as a part of the probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The probabilistic method become a resonable method to determine the design earthquakes for NPPs. In this study, the defining method of the probability based scenario earthquake was established, and as a sample calculation, the probability based scenario earthquakes were estimated by the de-aggregation of the probabilistic seismic hazard. By using this method, it is possible to define the probability based scenario earthquakes for the seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of structures. It is necessary to develop the rational seismic source map and the attenuation equations for the development of reasonable scenario earthquakes.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.527-555
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• 2013

This paper proposes probabilistic models for estimating the seismic demands on reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with base isolation. The models consider the shear and deformation demands on the bridge columns and the deformation demand on the isolation devices. An experimental design is used to generate a population of bridges based on the AASHTO LRFD Bridge Design Specifications (AASHTO 2007) and the Caltrans' Seismic Design Criteria (Caltrans 1999). Ground motion records are used for time history analysis of each bridge to develop probabilistic models that are practical and are able to account for the uncertainties and biases in the current, common deterministic model. As application of the developed probabilistic models, a simple method is provided to determine the fragility of bridges. This work facilitates the reliability-based design for this type of bridges and contributes to the transition from limit state design to performance-based design.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1991.10a
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• pp.57-62
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• 1991

For the purpose of developing the method for efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structure such as ship structure, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis needed in the reliability-based design is performed. The reliability analysis is carried out for the initial yielding failure, in which the derivative derived in the deterministic desin sensitivity is used. The present PFEM-based reliability method shows good agreement with Monte Carlo method in terms with the variance of response and the associated probability of failure even at the first or first few iteration steps. The probabilistic design sensitivity analysis evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the reliability index variation can be easily predicted by the variation of the mean and the variance of the random variables.