• Title/Summary/Keyword: population distribution

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Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Estimating Parameters and Uncertainties of Probability Rainfall Distribution (확률강우분포의 매개변수 및 불확실성 추정을 위한 베이지안 기법의 비교)

  • Seo, Youngmin;Park, Jaeho;Choi, Yunyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates the performance of four Bayesian methods, Random Walk Metropolis (RWM), Hit-And-Run Metropolis (HARM), Adaptive Mixture Metropolis (AMM), and Population Monte Carlo (PMC), for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution, and the results are compared with those of conventional parameter estimation methods; namely, the Method Of Moment (MOM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and Probability Weighted Method (PWM). As a result, Bayesian methods yield similar or slightly better results in parameter estimations compared with conventional methods. In particular, PMC can reduce parameter uncertainty greatly compared with RWM, HARM, and AMM methods although the Bayesian methods produce similar results in parameter estimations. Overall, the Bayesian methods produce better accuracy for scale parameters compared with the conventional methods and this characteristic improves the accuracy of probability rainfall. Therefore, Bayesian methods can be effective tools for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution in hydrological practices, flood risk assessment, and decision-making support.

University Enrollment Policy in the Capital Region and Its Impact on Population Dispersal (수도권 대학정원정책의 수동권 인구분산교과에 관한 연구)

  • 임창호;구자훈;안근원
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.45-63
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    • 1993
  • University enrollment has long been regarded as one of the major factors inducing population concentration in Seoul and the Capital Region of Korea. Consequently, since early 1980's increases in enrollment and new establishments of extention universities beyond the boundary of Seoul, has been promoted, while university enrollment quota in Seoul has been strictly controlled. The degree of actual population dispersal, however, resulting from such a university enrollment policy has not been empirically tested. This paper aims at: First, identifying the trend of population growth and evolution process of the university enrollment policy in the Capital Region; Second, comparing the degree of influence of university enrollment on population concetration factors; Third, measuring actual effect of the enrollment control on population dispersal out of Seoul and the Capital Region. Major findings are as follows: First, only a week correlation between population and university enrollment growth trends was found; Second, the relative degree of influence on population concentration in the Capital Region, were order, in the order of magnitude, the physical amenity factor, the socio-cultural amenity factor, the employment climate factor and the educational factor. Third, and most improtant, based on the comparison of spatial distribution of graduated high schools and current residence of the selected university students, the gap between the two distributions was revealed and the inter-regional student population movement was estimated. The result shows that in Seoul's case about one-half of and in Kyunggi Province's case about one-fifth of university enrollment size, contributes to population concentration into Seoul. Fourth, as to the universities outside of the Capital Region, little effect in the case of universities located within the commuting distance, and a little effect on population dispersal in the case of universities located beyond commuting distance, were found. In sum, it seems clear that university enrollment policy in the Capital Region, especially in Inchon/Kyunggi Province has not been effective on student population dispersal out of Seoul and the Capital Region. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that university enrollment policy be throughly re-examined from its goal to the implementation means.

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A Study on Environment Characteristics of the Angelica gigas Nakai Population (참당귀(Angelica gigas Nakai) 개체군의 환경 특성 분석)

  • Choo, Byung Kil;Ji, Yunui;Moon, Byeong Cheol;Lee, A-Yeong;Chun, Jin Mi;Yoon, Taesook;Kim, Ho Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.92-100
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    • 2009
  • This study was carried out to investigate vegetation structure and soil properties of Angelica gigas population distributed in Jeombongsan, Bangtaesan, Odaesan, Gyebangsan and Jirisan. From August 2007 until September 2008, 5m${\times}$5m quadrat was established in native area of Angelica gigas in order to record a dominants and coverage, and soil factors at 20 sites. It was found that the altitude in the distributed areas for Angelica gigas population was 710m or more. Angelica gigas population was classified into Parasencio auriculata var. kamtschatical dominant population, Pseudostellaria palibiniana dominant population, Isodon excisus dominant population and typical dominant population. In the site of study, soil pH, electrical conductivity, soil organic matter, available phosphorous, and exchangeable potassium, exchangeable calcium, exchangeable magnesium, exchangeable natrium concentration and total nitrogen were ranged from 5.1~6.2, 0.1~0.79dS/m, 2.21~22.11%, 9.56~37.97mg/kg, 1.85~23.88cmol+/kg, 0.21~1.18cmol+/kg, 1.07~5.09cmol+/kg, 0.04~0.14cmol+/kg and 0.09~1.04% respectively. The Parasencio auriculata var. kamtschatical dominant population was found in area of high altitude and had high slope degree. But Pseudostellaria palibiniana dominant population was found in area of low altitude and low slope degree. Isodon excisus dominant population was found to have higher soil pH and exchangeable potassium concentration than the other dominant population.

Urbanization and Population Distribution in North Korea : A Comparison to South Korea (북한의 도시화와 인구분포 : 남한과의 비교)

  • 김두섭
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.70-97
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    • 1995
  • The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the trend of urbanization and population distribution in North Korea. Although North Korean data lack comparable details, attention has been given to the comparison of urban system between North and South Korea. In North Korea, the pace of urbanization was most rapid just after the Korean War, from 1954 to 1960. However, the pace slowed down markedly in the early 1970s and has remained sluggish since then. North Korea is currently much less urbanized than South Korea. As specific features of urbanization in North Korea, emergence of new cities along inland borders, prominence of intermediate-sized cities, and sudden population growth of major cities due to boundary expansion are stressed. Available demographic data also indicate an overwhelming primacy of Pyongyang Municipality in the urban system, and rapid growth of satellite cities in the west-central region. It appears that, in North Korea, urbanization process has been a product of the government's development policies rather than individual's socioeconomic motivation to migrate urbanward. Finally, migration issues after unification of the Korean Peninsula and related problems are discussed in this study.

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Evaluation of the Location Efficiency of Fine Dust Shelters Considering Vulnerable Population in Seoul (취약계층을 고려한 미세먼지 쉼터 입지 효율성 평가)

  • Lim, Jae Kwon;Lee, Hye Kyung
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.104-115
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    • 2022
  • Fine Dust in Korea has been classified as a social disaster since 2019 due to continuous increase in concentration of Particulate Matter 10(PM 10) and PM 2.5. The fine dust issue has negative physical and mental impacts, especially on vulnerable population including children and the elderly. Seoul metropolitan government have installed fine dust shelters since 2019. However, there is a lack of research that evaluates spatiotemporal distribution of these facilities. Therefore, the first aim of this study is to find the relationship between PM levels and dust scattering construction sites, or air pollutant emission sites through in depth spatial analyses. The second purpose is to analyze the spatial distribution of PM shelters in Seoul, and to evaluate the location efficiency of them. Kernel density, krigging, and network analyses were conducted, and floating population was considered instead of census data for this research. The reults of network analysis based on the road system showed that Yangcheon-gu, Songpa-gu, Seongbuk-gu, and Dobong-gu were found to need additional fine dust shelters. Also, the results from analyzing the floating population that includes children and the elderly showed that Songpa-gu, Seodaemun-gu, Gangdong-gu, Seocho-gu, and Dongdaemun-gu need more placements of find dust shelters. The results of this study are expected to provide implications for urban planners to enhance find dust shelter placement in urban areas, and vulnerable population issues would be considered in many ways.

ASSESSING POPULATION BIOEQUIVALENCE IN A $2{\times}2$ CROSSOVER DESIGN WITH CARRYOVER EFFECT IN A BAYESIAN PERSPECTIVE

  • Oh Hyun-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2006
  • A $2{\times}2$ crossover design including carryover effect is considered for assessment of population bioequivalence of two drug formulations in a Bayesian framework. In classical analysis, it is complex to deal with the carryover effect since the estimate of the drug effect is biased in the presence of a carryover effect. The proposed method in this article uses uninformative priors and vague proper priors for objectiveness of priors and the posterior probability distribution of the parameters of interest is derived with given priors. The posterior probabilities of the hypotheses for assessing population bioequivalence are evaluated based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. An example with real data set is given for illustration.

On the Decay Rate of Soil Organic Matter and Changes of Soil Microbial populaiton (토양유기물의 분해속도와 Microbial populaiton의 소장에 관한 연구)

  • 김춘민
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • v.10 no.1_2
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 1967
  • The aim of present study is to elucidate the relationship between decay rate of soil organic matter, and the change of soil microbial population under the oak and pine forest soils in Kwang-nung plantation stand. The results obtained are as follows: 1) The correlation coefficient between decay rate and the soil bacteria is 0.84 and fungi 0.93. 2) The distribution of soil microbial population is higher in both F horizon of the oak forest soil, and F and H horizon of the pine forest soil. However, the number of soil microorganisms decreases with the depth in each forest soil. 3) The population of soil microbes is related to moisture content, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, and exchangeable calcium, except organic carbon in fungi. 4) The soil organic matter has been mainly decomposed by fungi, and the size of its population are governed by the factors such as moisture content, organic carbon, total nitrogen, available phosphorus, and exchangeable calcium.

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Robustness of Predictive Density and Optimal Treatment Allocation to Non-Normal Prior for The Mean

  • Bansal, Ashok K.;Sinha, Pankaj
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.235-247
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    • 1993
  • The predictive density function of a potential future observation and its first four moments are obtained in this paper to study the effects of a non-normal prior of the unknown mean of a normal population. The derived predictive density function is modified to study changes in utility curves, used to choose the optimum treatment from a given set of treatments, at a given level of stimulus due to slight deviations from normality of the prior distribution. Numerical illustrations are provided to exhibit some effectsl.

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A Study on the Chinese-Korean dwelling spatial structure and its distribution in China (중국 조선족 주거의 공간구성 형태와 그 지역분포에 관한 연구)

  • 김종영
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this research are to analyze the Chinese-Korean dwelling spatial structure and distribution of its area as a part of research for Chinese-Korean dwelling and village in China. The study area for this research was chosen three Chinese provinces located in north east part of China where the population of Chinese-Korean dwelling spatical structures and distribution of their area were found using this research.

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Ozone Exposure Assessment by Population Characteristics: A Case Study for High Ozone Days in Busan (인구특성을 고려한 노출평가: 부산지역 고농도 오존일 사례연구)

  • Hwang, Mi-Kyoung;Bang, Jin-Hee;Oh, Inbo;Kim, Yoo-Keun
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: Photochemical ozone pollution is associated with increased mortality risk. This study aims to assess the population exposure to ozone according to population characteristics for high ozone days in the Busan metropolitan region (BMR). Methods: The ozone exposure assessment in this study was performed using the WRF-CMAQ simulated ozone concentrations and the population data in the BMR. The settled and daytime population and their activity were considered to conduct the static and dynamic ozone exposure assessment. Results: Applying a static exposure assessment, in case that high ozone occurred throughout Busan area, the highest exposure levels were evaluated in urban neighborhoods. In case of ozone pollution in outer Busan, because sensitive groups have been relatively higher exposure, this case was also evaluated as part of that should not be overlooked. The dynamic exposure was higher than static exposure because the number of population exposed to ozone of high concentration is increased. This approach is important in a regard consider that daytime population distribution when high ozone occur. Conclusion: This study shows the different population exposure according to various ozone distributions for each episode day. Considering demographic characteristic such as population density and activity should be important to understanding the population exposure assessment when ozone pollution occurs.