University Enrollment Policy in the Capital Region and Its Impact on Population Dispersal

수도권 대학정원정책의 수동권 인구분산교과에 관한 연구

University enrollment has long been regarded as one of the major factors inducing population concentration in Seoul and the Capital Region of Korea. Consequently, since early 1980's increases in enrollment and new establishments of extention universities beyond the boundary of Seoul, has been promoted, while university enrollment quota in Seoul has been strictly controlled. The degree of actual population dispersal, however, resulting from such a university enrollment policy has not been empirically tested. This paper aims at: First, identifying the trend of population growth and evolution process of the university enrollment policy in the Capital Region; Second, comparing the degree of influence of university enrollment on population concetration factors; Third, measuring actual effect of the enrollment control on population dispersal out of Seoul and the Capital Region. Major findings are as follows: First, only a week correlation between population and university enrollment growth trends was found; Second, the relative degree of influence on population concentration in the Capital Region, were order, in the order of magnitude, the physical amenity factor, the socio-cultural amenity factor, the employment climate factor and the educational factor. Third, and most improtant, based on the comparison of spatial distribution of graduated high schools and current residence of the selected university students, the gap between the two distributions was revealed and the inter-regional student population movement was estimated. The result shows that in Seoul's case about one-half of and in Kyunggi Province's case about one-fifth of university enrollment size, contributes to population concentration into Seoul. Fourth, as to the universities outside of the Capital Region, little effect in the case of universities located within the commuting distance, and a little effect on population dispersal in the case of universities located beyond commuting distance, were found. In sum, it seems clear that university enrollment policy in the Capital Region, especially in Inchon/Kyunggi Province has not been effective on student population dispersal out of Seoul and the Capital Region. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that university enrollment policy be throughly re-examined from its goal to the implementation means.