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Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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Effect of Capital Market Return On Insurance Coverage : A Financial Economic Approach (투자수익(投資收益)이 보험수요(保險需要)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관한 이론적(理論的) 고찰(考察))

  • Hong, Soon-Koo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.249-280
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    • 1993
  • Recent financial theory views insurance policies as financial instruments that are traded in markets and whose prices reflect the forces of supply and demand. This article analyzes individual's insurance purchasing behavior along with capital market investment activities, which will provide a more realistic look at the tradeoff between insurance and investment in the individual's budget constraint. It is shown that the financial economic concept of insurance cost should reflect the opportunity cost of insurance premium. The author demonstrates the importance of riskless and risky financial assets in reaching an equilibrium insurance premium. In addition, the paper also investigates how the investment income could affect the four established theorems on traditional insurance literature. At the present time in Korea, the price deregulation is being debated as the most important current issue in insurance industry. In view of the results of this paper, insurance companies should recognize investment income in pricing their coverage if insurance prices are deregulated. Otherwise. price competition may force insurance companies to restrict coverage or to leave the market.

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The effect of Territorial Restraint in Food&Beverage Similar Brand Extension (외식 프랜차이즈 거래에서 지역제한(Territorial Restraint)이 가맹본사의 브랜드 확장에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Chae-Un;Lee, Joseph;Yi, Ho-Taek
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.217-235
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    • 2010
  • In franchise industry, territorial restraint is a system that imposes exclusive right to franchisers in a certain business area. To the franchisers, this system guarantees monopoly profits in a local market and exclusive rights during the contract periods. In such a way, franchisee generates a big revenue at once on the basis of franchiser's initial investment such as interior cost and franchise fee, it must have supervised franchiser's moral hazard for the territorial restraint agreement. Rather than territorial restraint can be a system to give exclusive right to franchiser's so that they neglect their own sales and too much rely on headquarter's brand and marketing activities without their own efforts. This paper assesses the implication of territorial restraint by examining the effect on brand extension, degree of contract termination. Drawing on research in transaction cost agreement and opportunism, the authors suggest that franchisee is highly likely to launch similar brand which is not effected on previous contract when territorial restraint is set out in the contract system. Moreover, the authors find that the degree of contract termination will be high in the existence of territorial restraint due to the franchisee's opportunism. The results imply that territorial restraint induces franchisee's opportunistic strategy more aggressively so that the possibility of brand extension or new brand launching will be increased. At the same time, franchisee is aggressively seeking for the reason for contract termination due to the pursuit of its profit maximization. Based on some empirical findings, this paper concludes with policy implications and some necessary fields of future studies desirable.

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Wearable Computers

  • Cho, Gil-Soo;Barfield, Woodrow;Baird, Kevin
    • Fiber Technology and Industry
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.490-508
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    • 1998
  • One of the latest fields of research in the area of output devices is tactual display devices [13,31]. These tactual or haptic devices allow the user to receive haptic feedback output from a variety of sources. This allows the user to actually feel virtual objects and manipulate them by touch. This is an emerging technology and will be instrumental in enhancing the realism of wearable augmented environments for certain applications. Tactual displays have previously been used for scientific visualization in virtual environments by chemists and engineers to improve perception and understanding of force fields and of world models populated with the impenetrable. In addition to tactual displays, the use of wearable audio displays that allow sound to be spatialized are being developed. With wearable computers, designers will soon be able to pair spatialized sound to virtual representations of objects when appropriate to make the wearable computer experience even more realistic to the user. Furthermore, as the number and complexity of wearable computing applications continues to grow, there will be increasing needs for systems that are faster, lighter, and have higher resolution displays. Better networking technology will also need to be developed to allow all users of wearable computers to have high bandwidth connections for real time information gathering and collaboration. In addition to the technology advances that make users need to wear computers in everyday life, there is also the desire to have users want to wear their computers. In order to do this, wearable computing needs to be unobtrusive and socially acceptable. By making wearables smaller and lighter, or actually embedding them in clothing, users can conceal them easily and wear them comfortably. The military is currently working on the development of the Personal Information Carrier (PIC) or digital dog tag. The PIC is a small electronic storage device containing medical information about the wearer. While old military dog tags contained only 5 lines of information, the digital tags may contain volumes of multi-media information including medical history, X-rays, and cardiograms. Using hand held devices in the field, medics would be able to call this information up in real time for better treatment. A fully functional transmittable device is still years off, but this technology once developed in the military, could be adapted tp civilian users and provide ant information, medical or otherwise, in a portable, not obstructive, and fashionable way. Another future device that could increase safety and well being of its users is the nose on-a-chip developed by the Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee. This tiny digital silicon chip about the size of a dime, is capable of 'smelling' natural gas leaks in stoves, heaters, and other appliances. It can also detect dangerous levels of carbon monoxide. This device can also be configured to notify the fire department when a leak is detected. This nose chip should be commercially available within 2 years, and is inexpensive, requires low power, and is very sensitive. Along with gas detection capabilities, this device may someday also be configured to detect smoke and other harmful gases. By embedding this chip into workers uniforms, name tags, etc., this could be a lifesaving computational accessory. In addition to the future safety technology soon to be available as accessories are devices that are for entertainment and security. The LCI computer group is developing a Smartpen, that electronically verifies a user's signature. With the increase in credit card use and the rise in forgeries, is the need for commercial industries to constantly verify signatures. This Smartpen writes like a normal pen but uses sensors to detect the motion of the pen as the user signs their name to authenticate the signature. This computational accessory should be available in 1999, and would bring increased peace of mind to consumers and vendors alike. In the entertainment domain, Panasonic is creating the first portable hand-held DVD player. This device weight less than 3 pounds and has a screen about 6' across. The color LCD has the same 16:9 aspect ratio of a cinema screen and supports a high resolution of 280,000 pixels and stereo sound. The player can play standard DVD movies and has a hour battery life for mobile use. To summarize, in this paper we presented concepts related to the design and use of wearable computers with extensions to smart spaces. For some time, researchers in telerobotics have used computer graphics to enhance remote scenes. Recent advances in augmented reality displays make it possible to enhance the user's local environment with 'information'. As shown in this paper, there are many application areas for this technology such as medicine, manufacturing, training, and recreation. Wearable computers allow a much closer association of information with the user. By embedding sensors in the wearable to allow it to see what the user sees, hear what the user hears, sense the user's physical state, and analyze what the user is typing, an intelligent agent may be able to analyze what the user is doing and try to predict the resources he will need next or in the near future. Using this information, the agent may download files, reserve communications bandwidth, post reminders, or automatically send updates to colleagues to help facilitate the user's daily interactions. This intelligent wearable computer would be able to act as a personal assistant, who is always around, knows the user's personal preferences and tastes, and tries to streamline interactions with the rest of the world.

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Proposal for improved implementation of aviation safety reporting system (항공안전보고제도 개선방안에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Man-Heui
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.337-371
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, aviation safety has been facing new hazards due to the rapidly changing environment in which aircraft operation increasingly finds. Continuously increasing air traffic volume, integration of various cultures from many States, and many other changes are the causal factors of the new risks. To identify such new hazards and risks, the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) established aviation safety reporting systems in accordance with the international standards of the Convention on International Civil Aviation. However, there are some misunderstandings by the government in operating and by the personnel who take part in these reporting systems. Everybody should understand that aviation safety reporting system is not a punitive measure but a tool for collecting data in order to improve safety. In addition, such a system can be utilized further to promote an improved awareness on the need for a proper safety culture on the part of both the government, the industry and the personnel. This paper includes studies on international standards, relevant regulations in the United States and the United Kingdom. Moreover, this paper proposes to the government of ROK several points to improve their own system, including integration of the existing reporting systems, improvement of reporting items, implementation of safety data taxonomy and the establishment of safety data protection.

Current Status and Prospects of High-Power Fiber Laser Technology (Invited Paper) (고출력 광섬유 레이저 기술의 현황 및 전망)

  • Kwon, Youngchul;Park, Kyoungyoon;Lee, Dongyeul;Chang, Hanbyul;Lee, Seungjong;Vazquez-Zuniga, Luis Alonso;Lee, Yong Soo;Kim, Dong Hwan;Kim, Hyun Tae;Jeong, Yoonchan
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2016
  • Over the past two decades, fiber-based lasers have made remarkable progress, now having reached power levels exceeding kilowatts and drawing a huge amount of attention from academy and industry as a replacement technology for bulk lasers. In this paper we review the significant factors that have led to the progress of fiber lasers, such as gain-fiber regimes based on ytterbium-doped silica, optical pumping schemes through the combination of laser diodes and double-clad fiber geometries, and tandem schemes for minimizing quantum defects. Furthermore, we discuss various power-limitation issues that are expected to incur with respect to the ultimate power scaling of fiber lasers, such as efficiency degradation, thermal hazard, and system-instability growth in fiber lasers, and various relevant methods to alleviate the aforementioned issues. This discussion includes fiber nonlinear effects, fiber damage, and modal-instability issues, which become more significant as the power level is scaled up. In addition, we also review beam-combining techniques, which are currently receiving a lot of attention as an alternative solution to the power-scaling limitation of high-power fiber lasers. In particular, we focus more on the discussion of the schematics of a spectral beam-combining system and their individual requirements. Finally, we discuss prospects for the future development of fiber laser technologies, for them to leap forward from where they are now, and to continue to advance in terms of their power scalability.

Discussions about Expanded Fests of Cartoons and Multimedia Comics as Visual Culture: With a Focus on New Technologies (비주얼 컬처로서 만화영상의 확장된 장(場, fest)에 대한 논의: 뉴 테크놀로지를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hwa-Ja;Kim, Se-Jong
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.28
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2012
  • The rapid digitalization across all aspects of society since 1990 led to the digitalization of cartoons. As the medium of cartoons moved from paper to the web, a powerful visual culture emerged. An encounter between cartoons and multimedia technologies has helped cartoons evolve into a video culture. Today cartoons are no longer literate culture. It is critical to pay attention to cartoons as an "expanded fest" and as visual and video culture with much broader significance. In this paper, the investigator set out to diagnose the current position of cartoons changing in the rapidly changing digital age and talk about future directions that they should pursue. Thus she discussed cases of changes from 1990 when colleges began to provide specialized education for cartoons and animation to the present day when cartoon and Multimedia Comics fests exist in addition to the digitalization of cartoons. The encounter between new technologies and cartoons broke down the conventional forms of cartoons. The massive appearance of artists that made active use of new technologies in their works, in particular, has facilitated changes to the content and forms of cartoons and the expansion of character uses. The development of high technologies extends influence to the roles of appreciators beyond the artists' works. Today readers voice their opinions about works actively, build a fan base, promote the works and artists they favor, and help them rise to stardom. As artist groups of various genres were formed, the possibilities of new stories and texts and the appearance of diverse styles and world views have expanded the essence of cartoon texts and the overall cartoon system of cartoon culture, industry, education, institution, and technology. It is expected that cartoons and Multimedia Comics will continue to make a contribution as a messenger to reflect the next generation of culture, mediate it, and communicate with it. Today there is no longer a distinction between print and video cartoons. Cartoons will expand in every field through a wide range of forms and styles, given the current situations involving installation concept cartoons, blockbuster digital videos, fancy items, and characters at theme parks based on a narrative. It is therefore necessary to diversify cartoon and Multimedia Comics education in diverse ways. Today educators are faced with a task to bring up future generations of talents who are capable of leading the culture of overall senses based on literate and video culture by incorporating humanities, social studies, and new technology education into their creative artistic abilities.

Present and Future of the Journal of Distribution Science (유통과학연구의 현재와 미래)

  • Kim, Dong-Ho;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2012
  • The recent announcement of the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) to cease journal accreditation operations as of the end of the year 2014 can easily influence the future of many research journals in Korea. Although this plan has not yet been formalized or structured, its facilitation would be the major turning point for the current Korean research and scholarly journals and publications. In addition, the NRF's plan to select and fund top 20 or more research journals over the five year period beginning 2015 suggests that the competition will most likely increase among Korean journals. Each journal would need to develop its unique strategy to improve and strengthen its competitiveness to become or maintain its position as a major research journal in Korea. The association of Korean Distribution of Science (KODISA) and its research journal, Journal of Distribution Science (JDS), has been continuously improving its reputation as a reputable journal in the distribution and related fields since its establishment in 1999. Due to demand, JDS has had to undergo several changes in its publication cycle first from semiannual publication to quarterly, then finally to monthly publications in 2012, and has become one of the major social science journals in Korea. Furthermore, with the redesigning of its webpage with English language in July of 2011, KODISA has made the published journals freely accessible and available to both domestic and foreign researchers, scholars, practitioners, and learners. These changes have resulted in the rapid increase in the bounce rate and the number of journal submissions by foreign scholars, with four research articles having been submitted by foreign scholars just in March of 2012 alone. However, although the changes and outcomes have resulted in a reasonable success so far, the achievement may only become a short-term success without continuously developing, improving, and implementing both effective and efficient strategies through critical, thorough, and frequent examinations and evaluations of both KODISA and JDS. As such, the purpose of this research is to carefully examine both KODISA and JDS to identify problematic factors and to develop appropriate strategies to change or modify those problems for further strengthening and improving their reputation and status. The paper examines and analyzes the past, present, and future of KODISA and JDS and their managerial, operational, and systematic procedures and operations. The narrow scope of research and inefficiencies in promoting the association and the journal and the improvement of impact factors are identified as the notable problems that could hinder JDS from being included in SCOPUS or SSCI in the near future. This type of examination and exploration has not been previously conducted, so the major limitation of this paper can be identified as not meticulously elaborating on the problems nor proving detailed recommendations based on the existing researches. This article asserted that solving the problem of the narrow scope of research would lead to facilitation of resolving other inefficient problems. Inclusion of international academic disciplines to the distribution and their related fields would be the viable initiation of expanding the research area, and this strategy could promote the journal as well as improve its impact factors. The narrow scope of research seems to be a good research topic and merit further exploration as an individual research project, because this kind of research could yield the creation of new understandings or theories.

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Economic Effects of Eliminating Trade Barriers under Imperfect Competition (불완전경쟁하(不完全競爭下)에서의 무역장벽(貿易障壁) 완화효과(緩和效果))

  • Lee, Hong-gue
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.29-54
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    • 1992
  • Recent studies on the economic effects of trade liberalization and economic integration have emphasized the significant gains associated with product differentiation and scale economies. Securing access to markets in other countries will make it possible to increase product variety and capture scale economies, thus, expanding the gains from trade. Liberalization is also expected to introduce foreign competition into the previously closed market. Concurrently, the liberalization will improve the competitive market environment for firms selling in the domestic market. Firms will be pressed to either exit or reduce cost. The output per firm, then, will increase due to the exit of rival firms, and the average total cost will decline due to the economies of scale. 'Rationalization' of the production process will eventually follow. This paper addresses the economic effects of (counterfactual) bilateral tariff elimination between Korea and Japan. It computationally assesses the gains from liberalization as well as the resource allocations and welfare effects associated with the tariff reduction. The endogenous determination of the key parameters distinguishes this paper from others. The firm's perceived elasticity of demand and elasticity of substitution in the present model are calibrated to be consistent with the base year data. Korea, Japan, and the rest of the world are modeled explicitly. The sectoral coverage of the model includes twenty-three tradable product categories based on three-digit SITC industries and seven nontradable categories based on one-digit SITC industries. Product categories are also classified into perfectly competitive and imperfectly competitive ones. In the imperfectly competitive industries, product differentiation exists at the firm level, while the perfectly competitive industries are characterized by national product differentiation. The simulation results of bilateral tariff reduction are reported. Tariff elimination tends to increase intra-industry trade flows so that the total amount of exports and imports of both countries expand. Yet, Japan is expected to increase the bilateral trade surplus in the wake of the mutual tariff reduction. Terms-of-trade for Korea will not change, while for Japan it will deteriorate. Equivalent variations reflecting the change in consumer surplus (welfare) will favor Korean consumers. Total output, however, will not change substantially, recording 0.5 and 0.6% for Japan and Korea, respectively. An interesting finding in the analysis is that the gains from increased competition and scale efficiency are not as prevailing as expected in theory.

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Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.