• Title/Summary/Keyword: optimism bias

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Behavioral Biases on Investment Decision: A Case Study in Indonesia

  • KARTINI, Kartini;NAHDA, Katiya
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.1231-1240
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    • 2021
  • A shift in perspective from standard finance to behavioral finance has taken place in the past two decades that explains how cognition and emotions are associated with financial decision making. This study aims to investigate the influence of various psychological factors on investment decision-making. The psychological factors that are investigated are differentiated into two aspects, cognitive and emotional aspects. From the cognitive aspect, we examine the influence of anchoring, representativeness, loss aversion, overconfidence, and optimism biases on investor decisions. Meanwhile, from the emotional aspect, the influence of herding behavior on investment decisions is analyzed. A quantitative approach is used based on a survey method and a snowball sampling that result in 165 questionnaires from individual investors in Yogyakarta. Further, we use the One-Sample t-test in testing all hypotheses. The research findings show that all of the variables, anchoring bias, representativeness bias, loss aversion bias, overconfidence bias, optimism bias, and herding behavior have a significant effect on investment decisions. This result emphasizes the influence of behavioral factors on investor's decisions. It contributes to the existing literature in understanding the dynamics of investor's behaviors and enhance the ability of investors in making more informed decision by reducing all potential biases.

Direct and Interaction Effects of Cognitive Bias and Anxiety on Credit Misuse among U.S. College Students (인지적 편향과 불안감이 미국 대학생의 위험 신용 행동에 미치는 영향과 상호작용효과)

  • Ahn, Sun Young;Kuo, Ya-Hui;Serido, Joyce;Shim, Soyeon
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.447-460
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    • 2018
  • This study determines whether certain cognitive biases (i.e., time preference, goal attainment expectation, unrealistic optimism, and overconfidence) and a specific negative mood-state (i.e., anxiety) influence credit misuse among college students. Data were collected from fourth-year college students (N=1,146), all of whom attended the same university in the southwest United States. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses and moderator analyses were employed to test the research hypotheses. Results showed that specific cognitive biases and anxiety were directly associated with credit misuse. We found that the longer goal attainment was delayed, the greater the students' unrealistic optimism concerning future income; in addition, the more overconfident they became with respect to financial knowledge, the more frequently they engaged in credit misuse. The study also showed that the higher a student's level of anxiety, the more often that students engaged in credit misuse. We also found that cognitive bias factors and anxiety interact to influence credit misuse. Anxiety interacted with time preference and unrealistic optimism such that present-oriented time preference was negatively related to credit misuse while optimism toward future income was positively related to credit misuse, but only for students with high anxiety levels. The findings of this study are discussed in the context of understanding and preventing irresponsible financial behavior among young adults.

The Effects of Firms' Foreign Market Focus on the Bias of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Focusing on CEO Characteristics (기업의 해외시장 집중화가 애널리스트 성과예측정보에 미치는 영향: 최고경영자 특성의 조절효과)

  • Cho, Hyejin;Ahn, He Soung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.195-213
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the effects of firms' foreign market focus on the optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts. Based on a sample of 852 U.S. manufacturing firms between 1994 and 2015, our empirical results suggest that higher growth of foreign market focus is associated with greater levels of analysts' forecast optimism. Drawing on the CEO career horizon and the upper echelon theory literature, we find evidence that CEOs' career horizon and functional background as a CFO moderates the relationship between the growth rate of foreign market focus and analysts' forecast optimism. This shows that while financial analysts perceive internationalization strategies as signaling growth potential, such perception can vary depending on CEOs' individual characteristics.

A Study on Factors Affecting National Cancer Prevention Practices Health Behavior of Nursing Students (간호대학생의 국민 암 예방수칙 건강행위에 미치는 요인연구)

  • Baek, So-Young
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to identify nursing students' knowledge, attitudes, and optimism bias about cancer, and the degree of national cancer prevention health behavior and to identify factors affecting cancer prevention behaviors. The data were collected from June 3 to June 28, 2020 for 241 nursing college students at J-C University. As a result of the study, nursing students' knowledge of cancer was 23.28±5.62 points, attitude was 40.33±8.15 points, optimistic bias was -.13±1.48 points, and national cancer prevention health behavior was 3.47±.59 points. National cancer prevention health behaviors of nursing students correlated with knowledge, attitudes, and optimistic biases on cancer. Among them, variables affecting cancer prevention health behaviors are attitudes toward cancer and optimism bias, which is 37.0 %. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a program to increase attitudes toward cancer and reduce optimism, and to practice cancer prevention health behaviors by reducing biases through positive attitudes and awareness of the importance of health behaviors through systematic and continuous education.

Influence of Cognition and Optimistic Bias on the Intention to Visiting Obstetrics and Gynecology of Women College Students (인지와 낙관적 편견이 여대생의 산부인과 방문의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Chu, Ye-Rin;Park, Ji-Yeon;An, Hee-Song;Bae, Kyung-Eui
    • Korean Parent-Child Health Journal
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to identify the intention of visiting obstetrics and gynecology of female college students by considering their perception and optimistic bias. Methods: The study included a total of 135 female college students under the age of 25. The data collection period is a descriptive research study conducted online from April 8, 2019 to April 16, 2019. The collected data were analyzed using the correlation of t-test, ANOVA, Pearson's correlation and multiple regression using SPSS 20.0. Results: The degree of intention of behavior for visits to obstetrics and gynecology was $3.10{\pm}1.06points$ on average. Intention of behavior for visits to obstetrics and gynecology had significant variance depending on sexual experience (t=3.09, p<.001). The intention of behavior for visits to obstetrics and gynecology had positive correlations with the cognition of visits to obstetrics and gynecology (r=.422, p<.001), the optimism bias (r=.419, p<.001). Influence factors emerged the optimism bias, cognition and sexual experience with explanatory power of 30.4%. Conclusion: The results of this paper can be used to prepare the basic data for the development of educational programs to promote preventive gynecological visits of female college students. Through this, the preventive screening rate, the quality of reproductive health in women's lives.

Influencing Factors of Christians' COVID-19 Health Prevention Behavior (기독교인의 코로나19 건강예방행위 영향 요인)

  • Seol-Young Bang;Nam-Ju Je;Mee-Ra Park
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.26 no.2_2
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    • pp.293-306
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is a descriptive research study to analyze the factors that affect Christians' COVID-19 preventive behavior. The subjects of the study were 262 adult Christians, and the data collected were using SPSS 25.0 and AMOS 21.0 programs. As a result of the study, the subject's religious maturity level was 4.21 ± .55 points out of 5 points, COVID-19 stress was 2.86 ± .73 points out of 5 points, optimism bias was 2.94 ± 1.26 points out of 7 points, and COVID-19 preventive health behavior was 4 points. The total score was 3. 54 ± . 44 points. As a result of the correlation analysis of the subject's religious maturity, COVID-19 stress, optimistic bias, and COVID-19 preventive health behaviors, COVID-19 preventive health behaviors were faith maturity (r=.156, p=.012), COVID-19 stress (r=.216, There was a positive correlation with optimism bias (r=174, p=.005). In conclusion, it can be said that the higher the religious maturity, the higher the COVID-19 stress, and the higher the optimistic bias, the better the preventive health behavior of COVID-19, and the explanatory power of the overall model was 9.4%. In the post-COVID-19 era, it is necessary to develop educational programs that can prevent infectious diseases and promote health in the community.

PROJECT COMPLEXITY AS A MODERATOR OF PERFORMANCE BIAS TOWARDS OVERRUN

  • Li liu;Andrew Nguyen;James Arvanitakis
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2011
  • Studies have shown that infrastructure projects have continued to experience significant delays and cost overrun over an extended period of time and no evidence of learning ever have happened [1] [2]. Various causes contribute to the bias towards overrun [3]. This study contributes to literature by developing and subsequently validating a set of hypothesized relationships between project complexity and project performance. The results show that project complexity is associated with both the magnitude and variance of overrun. Further, the extent and magnitude of the positive bias towards overrun are moderated by project complexity.

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The Effects of Positive Cognitive Bias on Attitude toward Success(Failure) and Entrepreneurial Intention (긍정적 인지편향이 창업시도 성공과 실패에 대한 태도와 창업의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Hwan Ho;Byun, Chung Gyu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.145-153
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    • 2014
  • This study examined the linkage between positive cognitive bias and entrepreneurial intention. Self-enhancement, unrealistic optimism, and illusion of control have been collectively referred as positive cognitive bias. We examined the effects of positive cognitive bias on attitudes toward success and failure. And we also examined the effect of attitudes toward success and failure on entrepreneurial intension. This study investigated these relationships using 240 high school students. The result of analysis indicated that the self-enhancement bias and unrealistic optimism bias had positive effects on attitude toward failure, but it had not any effect on attitude toward success. The illusion of control bias has positive effects on attitude toward success, but it had not any effect on attitude toward failure. The attitudes toward success and failure had positive effect on entrepreneurial intension. Then results of this study suggests that the cognitive biases showed a role of antecedents of attitudes toward success and failure. Finally, this study concluded with a discussion of the implications of the research findings and directions for future research.

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The Effects of Luck in Belief and Positive Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (행운신념이 긍정적 인지편향과 창업효능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Ha, Hwan Ho;Byun, Chung Gyu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2023
  • Entrepreneurial self-efficacy is an important variable that explains people's attitudes and behaviors toward start-ups. In this study, we focused on individual psychological characteristics variables such as luck in belief and positive cognitive bias that affect entrepreneurial self-efficacy. Among these variables, we paid particular attention to luck in belief. The belief that business success depends on luck is widespread, but scientific verification about it has not been much. The reason for the academic indifference is that luck is a kind of superstition, related to precognition or extrasensory perception, and randomly caused by the external environment. The study of luck began in earnest as a measure to measure luck as an individual characteristic variable such as personality was developed. The purpose of this study is to examine the existing studies on luck in belief and to examine the effect of this luck in belief on positive cognitive bias and entrepreneurial self-efficacy through empirical analysis. For empirical analysis, this study conducted an on-line survey of 400 ordinary people and conducted a structural equation model analysis using AMOS 21.0 to verify the hypothesis. As a result of hypothesis testing, all hypotheses that luck in belief would have a positive effect on positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealism optimistic bias) were adopted. The hypothesis that positive cognitive bias(self-enhancement bias, illusion of control bias, unrealistic optimism bias) will have a positive effect on entrepreneurial self-efficacy was also adopted. Additional analysis was conducted to examine the mediating role of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy, which showed that 'luck in belief→positive cognitive bias →entrepreneurial self-efficacy' were statistically significant. Through this, we confirmed the mediating effect of positive cognitive bias in the relationship between luck in belief and entrepreneurial self-efficacy. In the conclusion, the implications and limitations of the study were presented based on the results of this study.

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Information Privacy Concerns and Trust in SNS

  • Kim, Yujin;Lee, Hyung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.223-233
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we examined the causes of information privacy concerns, trust and related factors in social network services. On the basis of the 'elaboration likelihood model,' we established factors such as information quality, privacy policy, perceived SNS app popularity and optimism bias affecting information privacy concern of SNS users. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between information privacy concern, trust in SNS members, trust in SNS platform and intention to use. Finally, on the basis of the 'trust transfer theory', we analyzed the relationship between trust in SNS members and trust in SNS platform. The results of the study showed that (1) information quality, privacy policy and optimism bias had the significant effects on information privacy concerns, (2) perceived SNS app popularity didn't affect information privacy concerns, (3) information privacy concerns had the significant effects on trust in SNS platforms (4) in accordance with the trust transfer theory, trust in SNS members had the significant effect on trust in SNS platforms, and (5) trust in SNS members had the significant effect on intention to use, while trust in SNS platform didn't have the significant effect on intention to use. The findings of the study are expected to help to improve the SNS firms' understanding towards customers' information privacy protection behaviors and trust.