• Title/Summary/Keyword: nonparametric regression

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Estimation of Source Apportionment for Semi-Continuous PM2.5 and Identification of Location for Local Point Sources at the St. Louis Supersite, USA (미국 St. Louis Supersite에서의 준 실시간 PM2.5에 대한 기여도 추정 및 지역 규모 오염원의 위치 파악)

  • Hwang, In-Jo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.154-166
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    • 2009
  • In this study, 1-hour integrated $PM_{2.5}$ mass and chemical composition concentrations were monitored at the St. Louis-Midwest Supersite in Illinois. Time-resolved samples were collected one week in each of June 2001 (22 June to 28 June), November 2001 (7 November to 13 November), and March 2002 (19 March to 25 March). A total of 427 samples were collected by CAMM (continuous ambient mass monitor) and 15 compounds were analyzed by AAS, PILS (particle-into-liquid sampler), and TOT (thermal optical transmittance) method. PMF was applied to identify the sources and apportion the $PM_{2.5}$ mass to each source for highly time resolved data. In addition, the nonparametric regression (NPR) was applied to identify the predominant directions of local sources relative to wind direction. Also, this study performed compare the NPR analysis and location of actual local point sources at the St. Louis area. The PMF modeling identified nine sources and the average mass was apportioned to gasoline vehicle, road dust, zinc smelter, copper production, secondary sulfate, diesel emission, secondary nitrate, iron+steel, and lead smelter, respectively. These results suggested that this study results will be help for $PM_{2.5}$ source apportionment studies at similar metropolitan area, establish $PM_{2.5}$ standard, and establish effective emissions reduction strategies in Korea.

Development and Evaluation of Real-time Travel Time Forecasting Model: Nonparametric Regression Analysis for the Seoul Transit System (비모수 회귀분석을 이용한 실시간 통행시간 예측 기법 개발 및 평가 (서울시 버스를 중심으로))

  • Park, Sin-Hyeong;Jeong, Yeon-Jeong;Kim, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2006
  • Since the 1st of July, 2004, the public transport system of the Seoul metropolitan area has been rearranged. In the new system, bus lines are divided into 4 classes-wide area, arterial road, branch, and rotation lines with renewed fare system based on the total distance travelled. Since central control center known as the Bus Management System (BMS) integrates the entire system operation. it now becomes feasible to collect travel information and provide it to the users scientifically and systematically. The Purpose of this study is to forecast transit travel time using real-time traffic data coming from both buses and subway. This is significant contribution since provision of real-time transit information and easy access to it would most likely boost the use of mass transit system, alleviating roadway congestion in the metropolitan area.

ROC Curve Fitting with Normal Mixtures (정규혼합분포를 이용한 ROC 분석)

  • Hong, Chong-Sun;Lee, Won-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 2011
  • There are many researches that have considered the distribution functions and appropriate covariates corresponding to the scores in order to improve the accuracy of a diagnostic test, including the ROC curve that is represented with the relations of the sensitivity and the specificity. The ROC analysis was used by the regression model including some covariates under the assumptions that its distribution function is known or estimable. In this work, we consider a general situation that both the distribution function and the elects of covariates are unknown. For the ROC analysis, the mixtures of normal distributions are used to estimate the distribution function fitted to the credit evaluation data that is consisted of the score random variable and two sub-populations of parameters. The AUC measure is explored to compare with the nonparametric and empirical ROC curve. We conclude that the method using normal mixtures is fitted to the classical one better than other methods.

Parallelism point selection in nested parallelism situations with focus on the bandwidth selection problem (평활량 선택문제 측면에서 본 중첩병렬화 상황에서 병렬처리 포인트선택)

  • Cho, Gayoung;Noh, Hohsuk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2018
  • Various parallel processing R packages are used for fast processing and the analysis of big data. Parallel processing is used when the work can be decomposed into tasks that are non-interdependent. In some cases, each task decomposed for parallel processing can also be decomposed into non-interdependent subtasks. We have to choose whether to parallelize the decomposed tasks in the first step or to parallelize the subtasks in the second step when facing nested parallelism situations. This choice has a significant impact on the speed of computation; consequently, it is important to understand the nature of the work and decide where to do the parallel processing. In this paper, we provide an idea of how to apply parallel computing effectively to problems by illustrating how to select a parallelism point for the bandwidth selection of nonparametric regression.

Influential factors for recognition and use of oral care supplies by oral prophylaxis practice lab visitors (치면세마실습실 방문자의 구강관리용품 인지 및 사용에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Park, In-Suk;Jeong, Eun-Ju
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the oral health care of oral prophylaxis practice lab visitors, their recognition of oral care supplies, their use of oral care supplies by type, and influential factors for their recognition and use of oral care supplies. Methods: The subjects in this study were 275 people who visited an oral prophylaxis practice lab at a university located in an urban community. The visitors were respectively interviewed from March to June, 2016, and the data from 260 respondents who properly responded were analyzed, and data from 15 visitors who provided incomplete responsees were excluded. Statistical analysis was performed using the nonparametric tests, mann-whitney test and kruskal-wallis test, and multiple regression analysis using SPSS. Results: The mean score of oral care products was 2.25, the average degree of use was 0.09, and dental floss (0.29) was the most used oral care product. There was a significant difference between the groups according to gender (p<0.001), age (p<0.001) and marital status (p<0.001). Factors influencing the perception of oral care products were experience in brushing education and experience in oral care products education. Conclusions: The recognition of the oral prophylaxis practice lab visitors about oral care supplies and their use of the supplies were under the influence of oral health education. Therefore, sustained efforts should be directed into the development of efficient oral health care education programs that can inform people about the importance of oral health care, publicize oral care supplies, and encourage the use of these supplies.

The Time-Varying Coefficient Fama - French Five Factor Model: A Case Study in the Return of Japan Portfolios

  • LIAMMUKDA, Asama;KHAMKONG, Manad;SAENCHAN, Lampang;HONGSAKULVASU, Napon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.513-521
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we have developed a Fama - French five factor model (FF5 model) from Fama & French (2015) by using concept of time-varying coefficient. For a data set, we have used monthly data form Kenneth R. French home page, it include Japan portfolios (classified by using size and book-to-market) and 5 factors from July 1990 to April 2020. The first analysis, we used Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test) for the stationary test, from the result, all Japan portfolios and 5 factors are stationary. Next analysis, we estimated a coefficient of Fama - French five factor model by using a generalized additive model with a thin-plate spline to create the time-varying coefficient Fama - French five factor model (TV-FF5 model). The benefit of this study is TV-FF5 model which can capture a different effect at different times of 5 factors but the traditional FF5 model can't do it. From the result, we can show a time-varying coefficient in all factors and in all portfolios, for time-varying coefficients of Rm-Rf, SMB, and HML are significant for all Japan portfolios, time-varying coefficients of RMW are positively significant for SM, and SH portfolio and time-varying coefficients of CMA are significant for SM, SH, and BM portfolio.

Long-term Trend Analysis of Major Tributaries of Nakdong River Using Water Quality Index (수질지수를 이용한 낙동강 주요 지류지천의 장기 경향성 분석)

  • Park, Jaebeom;Kal, Byungseok;Kim, Sanghun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.201-209
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the water quality index was calculated using the water quality monitoring data of the major tributaries of the Nakdong River and long-term trend analysis was performed to identify the tributaries requiring priority management. We used a Real-Time Water Quality Index method implemented by the Ministry of Environment. Linear regression as a parametric method and Mann-Kendall Test and Sen Slope Test as a nonparametric method were applied for the trend analysis. The water quality index of major tributaries except for Migeon2 and Seokyo2 was in the range below Fair grade and there were no significant trends for the rest of the sites except Bukan, Chennae, Hogye, Yongdeok. Therefore, in order to improve the water quality of the main stream, management of the tributaries should be preceded.

A comparison analysis on probable precipitation considering extreme rainfall in Seoul (서울시 폭우특성을 고려한 근미래 확률강우량 산정 및 비교평가)

  • Yoon, Sun Kwon;Choi, Hyeon Seok;Lee, Tae Sam;Jeong, Min Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.17-17
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    • 2019
  • IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 기후변화 전망보고서에 따르면 RCP 4.5 시나리오 기준, 21세기 전 지구 평균기온은 $2.5^{\circ}C$ 상승(한반도 $+3.0^{\circ}C$)하며, 전 지구 평균강수량은 4.1% 증가(한반도 +16.0%)할 것이라 전망하고 있다(기상청, 2012). 최근 기후변화와 기상이변에 따른 도심지 폭우특성이 변화하고 있음을 많은 연구결과에서 말해주고 있으며, 그 발생 빈도와 강도가 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 서울시의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있어 폭우 발생에 의한 시민의 인명과 재산 피해 우려가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 근미래(~2050년) 기후변화 하에서의 재현기간에 따른 확률강우량 변화 특성을 분석하여 비교 평가한 후 설계 강우량 산정에 활용하고자 하였다. 관측자료 기반 강수량의 변동 특성 분석과 Non-stationary GEV방법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 근미래 폭우특성 변화분석을 위하여 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)에 참여한 GCMs(General Circulation Models)을 활용한 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall Test와 Quantile Regression을 통한 서울지점 여름철 강수량(June to September)과 기준강수량 초과 강수(30, 50, 80, 100mm/hr), 연간 10th 최대 강수량(Annual Top 10th Precipitation) 등을 분석한 결과 최근 증가 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 비정상성 빈도해석에 의한 확률강우량 분석의 가능성과 신뢰성을 확인하였다. 또한 19-GCMs을 통하여 모의된 일(Daily) 단위 강수량자료를 비모수통계적 상세화(Nonparametric Temporal Downscaling) 기법을 적용하여 시간(Hourly) 강우로 다운스케일링하였으며, 서울시 미래 확률강우량에 대한 IDF 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve)을 작성하여 비교?분석한 결과 지속시간 1시간 강우에 대하여 재현기간 30년, 100년 조건에서 확률강우량이 약 4%~11% 수준에서 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도심지 수공구조물의 설계빈도 영향을 진단하고, 근미래 발생가능한 확률강우량 변화에 따른 시간당 목표 강우량설정의 방법론을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있으며, 서울시의 방재성능목표 설정과 침수취약지역 해소를 위한 기후변화에 따른 수공구조물 설계 시 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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A Review of Statistical Methods in the Korean Journal of Orthodontics and the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (대한치과교정학회지(KJO)와 미국교정학회지(AJODO)에서 사용된 통계기법의 비교분석 및 고찰(1999-2003))

  • Lim, Hoi-Jeong
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.34 no.5 s.106
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    • pp.371-379
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes and types of statistical methods used in the Korean Journal of Orthodontics (KJO) and the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO) from )999 to 2003. The frequency of use, transitions, assumption check of statistical methods and types of advanced statistical methods were examined from each journal. The study consisted of 247 articles published in the KJO and randomly chosen 50 articles per year which were original articles and used statistical methods T-test, analysis of variance(ANOVA), correlation analysis, nonparametric analysis. regression analysis chi-square test. factor analysis, were the order of statistical methods most frequently used in the KJO, while t-test. ANOVA, nonparametric analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis, chi-square test. factor analysis. were the order of statistical methods used in the AJODO The changes of statistical methods observed in the KJO were not significant $(X^2=17.4\;p=0.5881)$ but the changes observed in the AJODO was seen to be significant $(x^2=42.4,\;p=0.0397)$ Some of the studies examined had overlooked the assumptions of the statistical methods employed. Data investigation such as outlier should be performed before analysis and alternative statistical approaches are applied for a small sample size. Types of advanced statistical methods were factor analysis and discriminant analysis in the KJO and Intention-To-Treat (ITT) analysis in clinical trials through multi-center, survival analysis and Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) in the AJODO. Appropriate analysis approaches and interpretations should be applied for the correlated and repeated measurements of the orthodontic data set.

The Relationship Between Son Preference and Fertility (남아 선호와 출산력간의 관계)

  • 이성용
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.31-57
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    • 2003
  • This study is intended to examine (l)whether the value of son-for example, old age security and succession of family lineage- causing son preference in the traditional society can be explained at the individual level, (2)whether women without son in the son preference country continue her childbearing until having at least one son or give up the desire of having a son at a certain level. To accomplish these purposes, the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey data are analyzed by the quadratic hazard models controlling unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike ordinary regression model, even omitted variables that affect hazard rates and are uncorrelated with the included independent variables can distort the parameter estimates in the hazard model. Therefore the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator(NPMLE) of a mixing distribution developed by Heckman and Singer is used to control unobserved heterogeneity. Based on the statistical result in this study, the value of son causing son preference is determined at the societal level, not at the individual level. And Korean women without a son did not continue endlessly childbearing during child bearing ages until having a son. In general, they gave up the desire having a son when she had born six daughters continuously. Thus, 30-40 years ago, the number of daughters that women without a son giving up the desire of son was six, which is about the level of total fertility rate during 1960s. In these days, we can often see many women who have only two or three daughters and do not any son. This means that the level of giving up the desire of son, which is one factor representing the strength of son preference, becomes lower. If the strength of son preference did not become much weaker, then the fertility rates in Korea could not reach the below replacement level.