• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.1201-1210
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• 2019

Stock price is characterized as being mutable, non-linear and stochastic. These key characteristics are known to have a direct influence on the stock markets globally. Given that the stock price data often contain both linear and non-linear patterns, no single model can be adequate in modelling and predicting time series data. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model cannot deal with non-linear relationships, however, it provides an accurate and effective way to process autocorrelation and non-stationary data in time series forecasting. On the other hand, the neural network provides an effective prediction of non-linear sequences. As a result, in this study, we used a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model to forecast the monthly closing price of the Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.55-58
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• 2005

This paper discusses the asymptotic efficiency of estimators for optimal portfolios when returns are vector-valued non-Gaussian stationary processes. We give the asymptotic distribution of portfolio estimators ${\hat{g}}$ for non-Gaussian dependent return processes. Next we address the problem of asymptotic efficiency for the class of estimators ${\hat{g}}$ First, it is shown that there are some cases when the asymptotic variance of ${\hat{g}}$ under non-Gaussianity can be smaller than that under Gaussianity. The result shows that non-Gaussianity of X(t) does not always affect worse. Second, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for ${\hat{g}}$ to be asymptotically efficient when the return process is Gaussian, which shows that ${\hat{g}}$ is not asymptotically efficient generally. From this point of view we propose to use maximum likelihood type estimators for g, which are asymptotically efficient. We examine our approach numerically.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.335-347
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• 2013

There are various types of real world signals. For example, an electrocardiogram(ECG) represents myocardium activities (contraction and relaxation) according to the beating of the heart. ECG can be expressed as the fluctuation of ampere ratings over time. A signal is a composite of various types of signals. An orchestra (which boasts a beautiful melody) consists of a variety of instruments with a unique frequency; subsequently, each sound is combined to form a perfect harmony. Various research on how to to decompose mixed stationary signals have been conducted. In the case of non-stationary signals, there is a limitation to use methodologies for stationary signals. Huang et al. (1998) proposed empirical mode decomposition(EMD) to deal with non-stationarity. EMD provides a data-driven approach to decompose a signal into intrinsic mode functions according to local oscillation through the identification of local extrema. However, due to the repeating process in the construction of envelopes, EMD algorithm is not efficient and not robust to a noise, and its computational complexity tends to increase as the size of a signal grows. In this research, we propose a new method to extract a local oscillation embedded in a signal by utilizing the second derivative.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.179-191
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• 2009

A stochastic response spectrum method is proposed for simple evaluation of the structural response of an actively controlled aseismic structure. The response spectrum is constructed assuming a linear structure with an active mass damper (AMD) system, and an earthquake wave model given by the product of a non-stationary envelope function and a stationary Gaussian random process with Kanai-Tajimi power spectral density. The control design is executed using a linear quadratic Gaussian control strategy for an enlarged state space system, and the response amplification factor is given by the combination of the obtained statistical response values and extreme value theory. The response spectrum thus produced can be used for simple dynamical analyses. The response factors obtained by this method for a multi-degree-of-freedom structure are shown to be comparable with those determined by numerical simulations, demonstrating the validity and utility of the proposed technique as a simple design tool. This method is expected to be useful for engineers in the initial design stage for structures with active aseismic control.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.285-294
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• 1994

Based on a fast and accurate method for the stationary random seismic response analysis for discretized structures(Lin 1992, Lin et al. 1992), a Ritz method for dealing with such responses of continuous systems in developed. This method is studied quantitatively, using cantilever shear beams for simplicity and clarity. The process can be naturally extended to deal with various boundary conditions as well as non-uniform Bernoulli-Euler beams, or even Timoshenko beams. Algorithms for both proportionally and non-proportionally damped responses are described. For all of such damping cases, it is not necessary to solve for the natural vibrations of the beams. The solution procedure is very simple, and equally efficient for a white or a non-white ground excitation spectrum. Two examples are given where various power spectral density functions, variances, covariances and second spectral moments of displacement, internal force response, and their derivatives are calculated and analyses. Some Ritz solutions are compared with "exact" CQC solutions.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.134-147
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• 2009

Tracking and exploiting instantaneous spectrum opportunities are fundamental challenges in opportunistic spectrum access (OSA) in presence of the bursty traffic of primary users and the limited spectrum sensing capability of secondary users. In order to take advantage of the history of spectrum sensing and access decisions, a sequential decision framework is widely used to design optimal policies. However, many existing schemes, based on a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework, reveal that optimal policies are non-stationary in nature which renders them difficult to calculate and implement. Therefore, this work pursues stationary OSA policies, which are thereby efficient yet low-complexity, while still incorporating many practical factors, such as spectrum sensing errors and a priori unknown statistical spectrum knowledge. First, with an approximation on channel evolution, OSA is formulated in a multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework. As a result, the optimal policy is specified by the wellknown Gittins index rule, where the channel with the largest Gittins index is always selected. Then, closed-form formulas are derived for the Gittins indices with tunable approximation, and the design of a reinforcement learning algorithm is presented for calculating the Gittins indices, depending on whether the Markovian channel parameters are available a priori or not. Finally, the superiority of the scheme is presented via extensive experiments compared to other existing schemes in terms of the quality of policies and optimality.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.31-39
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• 2001

For estimating parameters of possibly nonlinear and/or non-stationary seasonal autoregressive(AR) processes, we introduce a new instrumental variable method which use the direction vector of the regressors in the same period as an instrument. On the basis of the new estimator, we propose new seasonal random walk tests whose limiting null distributions are standard normal regardless of the period of seasonality and types of mean adjustments. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that he powers of he proposed tests are better than those of the tests based on ordinary least squares estimator(OLSE).

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.27 no.5_6
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• pp.1033-1047
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• 2009

In this paper, we consider a m-type risk model with Markov-modulated premium rate. A integral equation for the conditional ruin probability is obtained. A recursive inequality for the ruin probability with the stationary initial distribution and the upper bound for the ruin probability with no initial reserve are given. A system of Laplace transforms of non-ruin probabilities, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for non-ruin probabilities are obtained when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim size distributions belong to the $K_n$-family, n $\in$ $N^+$ One example is given with claim sizes that have exponential distributions.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.109-117
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• 2010

In this study, we consider stationary waiting times in a simple fork-and-join type queue which consists of three single-server machines, Machine 1, Machine 2, and Assembly Machine. We assume that the queue has a renewal arrival process and that independent service times at each node are either deterministic or non-overlapping. We also assume that the Machines 1 and 2 have an infinite buffer capacity whereas the Assembly Machine has two finite buffers, one for each machine. Services at each machine are given by FIFO service discipline and a communication blocking policy. We derive the explicit expressions for stationary waiting times at all nodes as a function of finite buffer capacities by using (max,+)-algebra. Various characteristics of stationary waiting times such as mean, higher moments, and tail probability can be computed from these expressions.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.156-167
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• 2007

In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.