• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.103-124
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• 2003

The seasonal adjustment is an essential process in analyzing the time series of economy and business. There are various methods to adjust seasonal effect such as moving average, extrapolation, smoothing and X11. One of the powerful adjustment methods is X11-ARIMA Model which is popularly used in Korea. This method was delivered from Canada. However, this model has been developed to be appropriate for Canadian and American environment. Therefore, we need to review whether the Xl1-ARIMA Model could be used properly in Korea. In this study, we have applied the method to the annual sales of refrigerator sales in A electronic company. We appreciated the adjustment by result analyzing the time series components such as seasonal component, trend-cycle component, and irregular component, with the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 1995.10a
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• pp.1138-1141
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• 1995

An arc sensor for seam tracking is developed to automate sub-assembly welding in shipbuilding. We utilize a moving average method, which produces an effect of low-pass filter, to generate the position compensation. Therefore the sensor is able to modify the path of the weld seam in real time. By simplifying the compension process, the tunning time is reduced so that operators react quickly. It turns out that this sensor is highly reliable and it is installed and being used in SHI Keoje shipbuilding yard.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.106-118
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• 2007

This paper present a new optimization model to generate aggregate production planning by considering electric cost. The new Time Of Switching (TOS) electric type is introduced by switching over Time Of Day (TOD) and Time Of Use (TOU) electric types to minimize the electric cost. The fuzzy demand and Dynamic inventory tracking with multiple plant capacity are modeled to cover the uncertain demand of customer. The constraint for minimum hour limitation of plant running per one start up event is introduced to minimize plants idle time. Furthermore; the Optimal Weight Moving Average Factor for customer demand forecasting is introduced by monthly factors to reduce forecasting error. Application is illustrated for multiple cement mill plants. The mathematical model was formulated in spreadsheet format. Then the spreadsheet-solver technique was used as a tool to solve the model. A simulation running on part of the system in a test for six months shows the optimal solution could save 60% of the actual cost.

• Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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• 2012.11a
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• pp.33-34
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• 2012

As the distributed power system with PV and ESS is highlighted to be one of the most prominent structure to replace the traditional electric power system, power flow scheduling is expected to bring better system efficiency. Optimal energy management system (EMS) where the power from PV and the grid is managed in time-domain using ESS needs an optimization process. In this paper, main optimization method is implemented using dynamic programming (DP). To overcome the drawback of DP in which ideal future information is required, prediction stage precedes every EMS execution. A simple auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) forecasting followed by a PI-controller updates the prediction data. Assessment of the on-line optimal EMS scheme has been evaluated on several cases.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.549-556
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• 2009

Let $\{(X_{ni}|1{\leq}i{\leq}n,\;n{\geq}1)\}$ be an array of rowwise negatively associated random variables. In this paper we discuss $n^{{\alpha}p-2}h(n)max_{1{\leq}k{\leq}n}|{\sum}_{i=1}^kX_{ni}|/n^{\alpha}{\rightarrow}0$ completely as $n{\rightarrow}{\infty}$ under not necessarily identically distributed with suitable conditions for ${\alpha}$>1/2, 0${\alpha}p{\geq}1$ and a slowly varying function h(x)>0 as $x{\rightarrow}{\infty}$. In addition, we obtain the complete convergence of moving average process based on negative association random variables which extends the result of Zhang (1996).

• Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.107-113
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• 1997

In this paper, an interfacing method to control rehabilitation assitance system with bio-signal is proposed. Controlling with EMG signals method has certain advantage on signal-collecting, but has some drawbacks in the function resolution of EMG signals because data-processing process is not efficient. To improve function-resolution and to increase the efficiency of EMG signal interfacing with rehabilitation assistance system, Multi-layer Perception which is highly effective with static signal and hidden-Markov model for dynamic signal resolving are fused together. In proposed method. The direction and average speed of the rehabilitation assitance system are controlled by the trajectory control and estimation of the moving direction result from the fused model. From the experiment, proposed GMM and 2-level MLP hybrid-classifier yielded 8.6% perception-error rate, improving function resolution. New acceleration control method constructed with 3 nested linear filter produced continuous acceleration paths without the information of destination point. Thus, the mass output caused by non- continuous acceleration-deceleration was eliminated. In the simulation, the necessary calculation, in the case of multiplication, was reduced by 11.54%.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.135-135
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• 1997

Times series modeling plays an important role in the field of engineering, Statistics, Biomedicine etc. Model identification is one of crucial steps in the modeling of an AutoRegreesive Moving Average(ARMA(p, q)) process for real world problems. Many techniques have been developed in the literature (Salas et al., McLeod et al. etc.) for the identification of an ARMA(p, q) Model. In this paper, a new technique called The Generalised Parameters Technique is formulated for seasonal and non-seasonal ARMA model identification. This technique is very simple and can e applied to any given time series. Initial estimates of the AR parameters of the ARMA model are also obtained by this method. This model identification technique is validated through many theoretical and simulated examples.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.783-791
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• 2004

In this paper we review recent developments in nonlinear time series modeling on both conditional mean and conditional variance. Traditional linear model in conditional mean is referred to as ARMA(autoregressive moving average) process investigated by Box and Jenkins(1976). Nonlinear mean models such as threshold, exponential and random coefficient models are reviewed and their characteristics are explained. In terms of conditional variances, ARCH(autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) class is considered as typical linear models. As nonlinear variants of ARCH, diverse nonlinear models appearing in recent literature including threshold ARCH, beta-ARCH and Box-Cox ARCH models are remarked. Also, a class of unified nonlinear models are considered and parameter estimation for that class is briefly discussed.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.119-126
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• 1996

In this paper, a method of substructural identification is presented for the estimation of localized structural parameters. for this purpose, an auto-regressive and moving average with stochastic input (ARMAX) model is derived for the substructure to process the measurement data impaired by noises. The sequential prediction error method is used fer the estimation of unknown localized parameters. Using the substructural method, the number of unknown parameters can be reduced and the convergence and accuracy of estimation can be improved. For some substructures, the effect of the input excitation is expressed in terms of the responses at the inferences with the main structure, and substructural identification may be carried out without measuring the actual input excitation to the whole structure. Example analysis is carried out for idealized structural models of a multistory building and a truss bridge. The results indicate that the present method is effective and efficient for local damage estimation of complex structures.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.52
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• pp.337-345
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• 1999

The long-tailed, positively skewed exponential distribution can be made into an almost symmetric distribution by taking the exponent of the data. In these situations, to use the traditional shewhart control limits on an individuals chart would be impractical and inconvenient. The transformed data, approximately bell-shaped, can be plotted conveniently on the individuals chart and exponentially weighted moving average chart. In this paper, using modifying statistics with transformed exponential of the data, we give a method for constructing control charts. Selecting method of exponent for individual chart is evaluated. And consider that smaller weight being assigned to the older data as time process and properties and taking method of exponent($\theta$), weighting factor($\alpha$) are suggested. Our recommendation, on the basis result of simulation, is practical method for EWMA chart.