• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.541-562
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• 2000

The generalized linear mixed model framework is for handling count-type categorical data as well as for clustered or overdispersed non-Gaussian data, or for non-linear model data. In this study, we review its general formulation and estimation methods, based on quasi-likelihood and Monte-Carlo techniques. The current research areas and topics for further development are also mentioned.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.225-230
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• 2006

With the advent of inexpensive computing power over the past two decades, applications of Monte Carlo radiation transport techniques have proliferated dramatically. At Los Alamos, the Monte Carlo codes MCNP5 and MCNPX are used routinely on personal computer platforms for radiation shielding analysis and dosimetry calculations. These codes feature a rich palette of variance reduction (VR) techniques. The motivation of VR is to exchange user efficiency for computational efficiency. It has been said that a few hours of user time often reduces computational time by several orders of magnitude. Unfortunately, user time can stretch into the many hours as most VR techniques require significant user experience and intervention for proper optimization. It is the purpose of this paper to outline VR strategies, tested in practice, optimized for several common radiation shielding tasks, with the hope of reducing user setup time for similar problems. A strategy is defined in this context to mean a collection of MCNP radiation transport physics options and VR techniques that work synergistically to optimize a particular shielding task. Examples are offered in the areas of source definition, skyshine, streaming, and transmission.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1999.07c
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• pp.1111-1113
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• 1999

This paper presents a algorism for evaluating contingency case power wheeling effects using Monte-Carlo simulation The effects of wheeling on generating cost, transmission losses, and system security are considered. For a specific operating condition, the effects are quantified by the sensitivity of specific quantities of interest with respect to wheeling level. This model is utilized within a Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate probability distribution functions of the incremental effects of wheeling on operating cost, transmission losses, and system security. The model and solution methods are applied on a IEEE RTS-96 system power system and the results are presented.

• Architectural research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.27-36
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• 2006

Structural uncertainties are generally modeled using probabilistic approaches in order to quantify uncertainties in behaviors of structures. This uncertainty results from the uncertainties of structural parameters. Monte Carlo methods have been usually carried out for analyses of uncertainty problems where no analytical expression is available for the forward relationship between data and model parameters. In such cases any direct mathematical treatment is impossible, however the forward relation materializes itself as an algorithm allowing data to be calculated for any given model. This study addresses a new method which is utilized as a basis for the uncertainty estimates of structural responses. It applies double uniform random numbers (i.e. DURN technique) to conventional Monte Carlo algorithm. In DURN method, the scenarios of uncertainties are sequentially selected and executed in its simulation. Numerical examples demonstrate the beneficial effect that the technique can increase uncertainty degree of structural properties with maintaining structural stability and safety up to the limit point of a breakdown of structural systems.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.188-196
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to determine optimal replacement age using non-informative prior information and Bayesian method. Methods: We propose a novel approach using Bayesian method to determine the optimal replacement age in block replacement policy by defining the prior probability with data on failure time and repair time. The Marcov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to investigate the asymptotic distribution of posterior parameters. Results: An optimal replacement age of block replacement policy is determined which minimizes cost and nonoperating time when no information on prior distribution of parameters is given. Conclusion: We find the posterior distribution of parameters when lack of information on prior distribution, so that the optimal replacement age which minimizes the total cost and maximizes the total values is determined.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.123-133
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• 2010

There are many occasions on which the critical decisions should be made in software projects. Those decisions are basically related to estimating and predicting project parameters such as costs, efforts, and duration. The project managers are looking for methods to make better decisions. The decisions about project parameters are recommended to be performed based on historical data of Similar projects. The measures of the tasks in past projects may have different shapes of distributions. we need to add those measures to get a predicted project measures. To add measures with different shapes of distribution, we need to use Monte Carlo Simulation. In this paper, we suggest applying Monte Carlo Simulation for supporting decision makings in software project. We implemented best-fit case and scheduling estimations with Cristal Ball, a commercial product of Monte Carlo simulation and showed how the suggested approach supports those critical decision makings.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.71-78
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• 2018

In this study, we consider the likelihood ratio test for the covariance matrix of the multivariate normal data. For this, we propose a method for obtaining null distributions of the likelihood ratio statistics by the Monte-Carlo approach when it is difficult to derive the exact null distributions theoretically. Then we compare the performance and precision of distributions obtained by the asymptotic normality and the Monte-Carlo method for the likelihood ratio test through a simulation study. Finally we discuss some interesting features related to the likelihood ratio test for the covariance matrix and the Monte-Carlo method for obtaining null distributions for the likelihood ratio statistics.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.207-214
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• 2007

A new Monte Carlo method for solving heat conduction problems is developed in this study. Differing from other Monte Carlo methods, it is a transport approximation to the heat diffusion process. The method is meshless and thus can treat problems with complicated geometry easily. To minimize the boundary effect, a scaling factor is introduced and its effect is analyzed. A set of problems, particularly the heat transfer in the fuel sphere of PBMR, is calculated by this method and the solutions are compared with those of an analytical approach.

• Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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• v.73 no.10
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• pp.1466-1472
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• 2018

A key comparison has been made between the air-kerma standards of the National Institute of Metrology (NIM), China, and other Asia Pacific Metrology Programme (APMP) members in the medium-energy X-ray. This paper reviews the primary standard Free-air ionization chamber correction factor experimental method and Monte Carlo simulation method in the NIM. The experimental method and the Monte Carlo simulation method are adopted to obtain the correction factor for the medium-energy X-ray primary standard free-air ionization chamber at 100 kV, 135 kV, 180 kV, 250 kV four CCRI reference qualities. The correction factor has already been submitted to the APMP as key comparison data and the results are in good agreement with those obtained in previous studies. This study shows that the experimental method and the EGSnrc simulation method are usually used in the measurement of the correction factor. In particular, the application of the simulation methods is more common.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.1043-1050
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• 2022

Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation were applied to account for the probabilistic nature of pavement deterioration over time using data collected in the field. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate pavement network performance of Western Australia (WA) by applying the existing pavement management tools relevant to WA road construction networks. Two approaches were used to analyze the pavement networks: evaluating current pavement performance data to assess WA State Road networks and predicting the future states using past and current pavement data. The Markov chains process and Monte Carlo Simulation methods were used to predicting future conditions. The results indicated that Markov chains and Monte Carlo Simulation prediction models perform well compared to pavement performance data from the last four decades. The results also revealed the impact of design, traffic demand, and climate and construction standards on urban pavement performance. This study recommends an appropriate and effective pavement engineering management system for proper pavement design and analysis, preliminary planning, future pavement maintenance and rehabilitation, service life, and sustainable pavement construction functionality.