• Title/Summary/Keyword: model change

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A Causality Analysis of the Hairtail Price by Distribution Channel Using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR 모형을 이용한 유통단계별 갈치가격의 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hyun;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.93-107
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.

Study of Convective Flow and Heat Transfer Phenomena in the Phase Change Material (상변화물질의 대류유동 및 열전달 현상에 관한 연구)

  • Shon, Sang-Suk;Lee, Chae-Moon;Lee, Jae-Heon;Yim, Chang-Soon
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 1986
  • The objective of this study is to report on the characterics of convective flow and heat transfer during metling process in order to provide design information for thermal energy storage systems which use phase change material. In present study, flow and heat transfer characteristics of the Phase Change Material in the Open Top Model (O.T.M) and in the Closed Top Model (C.T.M) were studied numerically by the control volume formulation using the algebraic non-orthogonal coordinate transformation. For the calculation procedure, the physical properties of fluid are assumed to be constant except density which is linely dependent on temperature in the bouyancy term of momentum equations. At start of melting process, the thickness of melting layer is assumed from the Stefan Problem assumption. The heat transfer results of Open Top Model and Closed Top Model are compared with the parameters of Grashof number and aspect ratio. It was found that heat transfer phenomena in melted region was greatly affected by buoyancy-driven natural convection and the melting distance of Open Top Model at the upper region is greater than that of Closed Top Model.

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A Study on the Characteristics Analysis According to the Permanent Magnet Segmentation Change to IPMSM for Urban Railway Vehicle (도시철도차량용 IPMSM의 Magnet Segment 변화에 따른 특성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Geochul;Park, Chan-Bae;Jeong, Taechul;Lee, Ju
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.64 no.10
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    • pp.1486-1492
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    • 2015
  • The following study carried out the characteristic analysis based on the magnet segment of Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor(IPMSM) for the urban railway vehicles. IPMSM affects the electromagnetic characteristics through the change in magnetic flux based on the rotor structure, and significantly influences the structural features through the change of pressure. Therefore, satisfied by the demanded traction force of the IPMSM, magnet segment derived three different model types. The 1-segment PM model consisted an undivided permanent magnet. The 2-Bridge model consisted a divided permanent magnet with the application of Bridge. The 3-Bridge model consisted additional dividing with one more Bridge applied. The electromagnetic characteristics of the three models were compared and analyzed along with the structural features regarding the scattering of permanent magnet based on strong centrifugal force from the rotation of the rotor at high speed. In conclusion, the final model with electromagnetic characteristics and structural features most suitable of IPMSM for the urban railway vehicles was derived, and the effectiveness was verified through the characteristic experiments after the production of the derived model.

A Bayesian Inference for Power Law Process with a Single Change Point

  • Kim, Kiwoong;Inkwon Yeo;Sinsup Cho;Kim, Jae-Joo
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2004
  • The nonhomogeneous poisson process (NHPP) is often used to model repairable systems that are subject to a minimal repair strategy, with negligible repair times. In this situation, the system can be characterized by its intensity function. There have been many NHPP models according to intensity functions. However, the intensity function of system in use can be changed because of repair or its aging. We consider the single change point model as the modification of the power law process. The shape parameter of its intensity function is changed before and after the change point. We detect the presence of the change point using Bayesian methodology. Some numerical results are also presented.

Cross sectional area change of the dural-sac according to impact duration in a spinal motion segment FE model (척추운동분절 FE모델에서 충격시간에 따른 마미 단면적의 변화)

  • Kim, Y. E.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.117-120
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    • 2002
  • In this study the occlusion of dural-sac, the outer membrane of spinal cord in the lumbar region, was quantitatively analyzed using one motion segment finite element model. Occlusion was quantified by calculating cross sectional area change of dural-sac far different compressive impact duration(loading rate) due to bony fragment at the posterior wall of the cortical shell in vertebral body. Dural-sac was occluded most highly in the range of 8∼12 msec impact duration by the bony fragment intruding into the spinal canal. t=400 msec case 4% cross sectional area change was calculated, which is the same as the cross sectional area change under 6 kN of static compressive loading.

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Prediction of Tidal Regime According To Garolim Tidal Power Plant operation (가로림만 조력발전소 가동에 따른 조석체계 변화 예측)

  • Kang, Sok-Kuh;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jin-Soon;Yum, Ki-Dai
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.639-643
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    • 2007
  • Tidal regime change with general hydrolic condition change is examined, according to Garolim Tidal Power Plant (TPP) operation. Numerical model has been developed for the Yellow and East China Seas region, in order to consider the tidal regime change by the TPP operation. The changes of tidal elevation and tidal current inside the Garolim bay are also investigated in details, along with examining the change of the tidal flat area with operation. The field measurement for the tide and current have been carried out for the validation of the numerical model and for understanding the state of current system in the present state.

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Free-wing Tilt-body Aircraft Controllerability Analysis for Change of Center of Gravity (무게중심 변화에 따른 자유날개 동체꺾임형 항공기의 조종성 해석)

  • Park, Wook-Je
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2011
  • The free-wing tilt-body aircraft is researched in the flight performance characteristics for center of gravity (CG) change. All of speed, body tilt angle and center of gravity change are simulated to determine the flight envelope by a non-linear 3-DOF mathematical model. In flight, this aircraft configuration changes by the tiltable empennage. Then, flight dynamics distinguishes from those of a conventional fixed-wing aircraft. Though flight performance and trimmability are studied by CG change, the flight model of free-wing tilt-body aircraft is to reduce the hidden risk and to achieve the successful flight test. It is analyzed the flight characteristics by CG change that distinguishes free-wing tilt-body aircraft from the conventional aircraft.

Structural Change and Green Growth in Korea, 1980~2020 (한국의 구조적 변화와 녹색성장)

  • Kim, Yong Jin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2012
  • Greenhouse gas emission policy in Korea and elsewhere is based on emissions projections, a key element of which is the projected path of structural change from high productivity growth to low productivity growth economic sectors given sector specific labor productivity growth, emissions abatement across sectors and population growth. Thus, it is important to model the source of the structural change to forecast emissions correctly. Using data for the Korean economy, this study constructs and quantitatively evaluates a model of structural change and green growth to generate policy implications for Korea and the international greenhouse gas debate.

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Prediction of Tidal Regime According To Garolim Tidal Power Plant operation (가로림만 조력발전소 가동에 따른 조석체계 변화 예측)

  • Kang, Sok-Kuh;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jin-Soon;Yum, Ki-Dai;Jung, Kyung-Tae;Jang, Chan-Joo
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.3 no.2 s.10
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2007
  • Tidal regime change with general hydrolic condition change is examined, according to Garolim Tidal Power Plant (TPP) operation. Numerical model has been developed for the Yellow and East China Seas region, in order to consider the tidal regime change by the TPP operation. The changes of tidal elevation and tidal current inside the Garolim bay are also investigated in details, along with examining the change of the tidal flat area with operation. The field measurement for the tide and current have been carried out for the validation of the numerical model and for understanding the state of current system in the present state.

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A change point estimator in monitoring the parameters of a multivariate IMA(1, 1) model

  • Sohn, Sun-Yoel;Cho, Gyo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.525-533
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    • 2015
  • Modern production process is a very complex structure combined observations which are correlated with several factors. When the error signal occurs in the process, it is very difficult to know the root causes of an out-of-control signal because of insufficient information. However, if we know the time of the change, the system can be controlled more easily. To know it, we derive a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the change point in a process when observations are from a multivariate IMA(1,1) process by monitoring residual vectors of the model. In this paper, numerical results show that the MLE of change point is effective in detecting changes in a process.