• East Asian mathematical journal
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.493-503
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• 2023

Tendency prediction of daily confirmed cases is an important issue for public health authorities. To protect the tendency, we estimate the transmission rate of stochastic SEIR model for COVID-19 in Korea using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results show that the increasing and decreasing tendency of estimated transmission rate appear one or two days in advance compared to daily incidence cases, and as time evolves the standard deviation of the estimates of transmission rate reduces. Since ten months have passed since the first incident case of COVID-19 in Korea, we expect to forecast the tendency of daily confirmed cases for the next one or two days more accurately using our method.

• Annual Conference of KIPS
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.1136-1139
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• 2009

본 논문은 802.15.4에서 CW(Contention Window)에 따른 성능과 에너지 소비량을 분석한다. 기존 연구에서는 802.15.4 표준안의 성능과 에너지 소비량을 분석하고, CW나 BE(Backoff Exponent)와 같은 변수를 변화시켜 시뮬레이션만으로 성능과 에너지 소비량을 비교하여 분석하였으나, 본 논문은 CW에 따른 성능과 에너지 소비량을 마코프 체인(Markov Chain)을 이용하여 수학적으로 분석을 하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.239-250
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• 2022

In many applications, we frequently encounter correlated multiple outcomes measured on the same subject. Joint modeling of such multiple outcomes can improve efficiency of inference compared to independent modeling. For instance, in developmental toxicity studies, fetal weight and number of malformed pups are measured on the pregnant dams exposed to different levels of a toxic substance, in which the association between such outcomes should be taken into account in the model. The number of malformations may possibly have many zeros, which should be analyzed via zero-inflated count models. Motivated by applications in developmental toxicity studies, we propose a Bayesian joint modeling framework for continuous and count outcomes with excess zeros. In our model, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model would be used to describe count data, and a subject-specific random effects would account for the correlation across the two outcomes. We implement a Bayesian approach using MCMC procedure with data augmentation method and adaptive rejection sampling. We apply our proposed model to dose-response analysis in a developmental toxicity study to estimate the benchmark dose in a risk assessment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.861-869
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• 2023

This article proposes a novel approach to measure the performance of Safety-Critical Systems (SCS). Such systems contain multiple processing nodes that communicate with each other is modeled by a Petri nets (PN). The paper uses the PN for the performance evaluation of SCS. A set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is derived from the Petri net model that represent the state of the system, and the solutions can be used to measure the system's performance. The proposed method can avoid the state space explosion problem and also introduces new metrics of performance, along with their measurement: deadlock, liveness, stability, boundedness, and steady state. The proposed technique is applied to Shutdown System (SDS) of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). We obtained 99.887% accuracy of performance measurement, which proves the effectiveness of our approach.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.183-189
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• 1987

The performance of frame synchronization can be represented by the values of three characteristic variables-average misframe interval, average syncloss detection time, average reframe time. In this paper, we have analyzed the performance of frame synchronization of the standardized 90Mb/s optical transmission system by Markov chain method, with the suggestion of an extended algorithm for performance improvement. Maximum average reframe time of 1.18 ms can be obtained by the suggested algorithm, which is compared with that of 2.28 ms for the existing algorithm.

• Journal of Internet Technology
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.301-313
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a new MAC protocol for Cognitive Radio (CR)-based IoT networks, called MSMA/CA. We extend the standard CSMA/CA, adopted in IEEE 802.11 WLANs, to the CR networks with the minimal modification since it works well in the real world. We resolve the classical hidden/exposed terminal problems by a variant of RTS/CTS mechanism and further, the hidden primary terminal problem by the mutual spectrum sensing at the transmitter and the receiver. We also modify the backoff process of CSMA/CA to incorporate the blocking of secondary transmitters, with the aim of protecting ongoing primary transmissions from aggressive secondary users. We analyze the throughput and delay of our proposed scheme using the Markov chain model on the backoff procedure, and verify its accuracy by simulations. Simulation results demonstrate that our protocol is suitable for IoT networks since the performance is insensitive to the number of users or devices.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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• v.36S no.2
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• pp.19-27
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• 1999

This paper propose a contention resolution policy featuring dynamic change of the threshold for the occupancy of the input buffer for an input buffering ATM switching architecture and its hardware implementation strategy. The strategy is provided with the aim of the simple structure that achieves the reduction of the signal path and the power consumption. The threshold is changed dynamically every time slot based both the arrived of cells and the cell service resulting from the contention resolution. The performance on the cell loss of the proposed policy is performed and compared with the conventional policy under the diverse traffic conditions through both the analysis based ont the Markov chain and the simulation.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.24 no.12A
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• pp.1852-1861
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• 1999

In this paper, CDMA Reservation ALOHA scheme which can reduce multiple access interference and packet collision is proposed to support multi-traffic such as voice and random data with and without priority. In this scheme, the time slot is divided into two stage, access and transmission stage. Only packets with spreading codes assigned from base station in access stage can transmit their packets in transmission stage, so MAI can be reduced. To reduce packer collision in access stage, the code reservation and access permission probability are used. Code reservation is allowed for voice traffic and continuous traffic with priority using piggyback and access permission probability based on the estimation of the number of contending users in the steady-state is adaptively applied to each traffic terminal. Also, we analyzed and simulated the numerical performances required for each traffic using Markov chain modeling in a single cell environment.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.6 no.9
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• pp.2285-2301
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• 2012

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networks are becoming more and more popular in video content delivery services, such as Video on Demand (VoD). Scalability feature of P2P allows a higher number of simultaneous users at a given server load and bandwidth to use stream service. However, the quality of service (QoS) in these networks is difficult to be guaranteed because of the free-riding problem that nodes download the recourses while never uploading recourses, which degrades the performance of P2P VoD networks. In this paper, a distributed trust model is designed to reduce node's free-riding phenomenon in P2P VoD networks. In this model, the P2P network is abstracted to be a super node hierarchical structure to monitor the reputation of nodes. In order to calculate the reputation of nodes, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is introduced in this paper. Besides, a distinction algorithm is proposed to distinguish the free-riders and malicious nodes. The free-riders are the nodes which have a low frequency to free-ride. And the malicious nodes have a high frequency to free-ride. The distinction algorithm takes different measures to response to the request of these two kinds of free-riders. The simulation results demonstrate that this proposed trust model can improve QoS effectively in P2P VoD networks.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.138-147
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• 2017

As the functions and structure of the system are complicated and elaborated, various types of structures are emerging to increase reliability in order to cope with a system requiring higher reliability. Among these, standby systems with standby components for each major component are mainly used in aircraft or power plants requiring high reliability. In this study, we consider a standby system with a multi-functional standby component in which one standby component simultaneously performs the functions of several major components. The structure of a parallel system with multifunctional standby components can also be seen in real aircraft hydraulic pump systems and is very efficient in terms of weight, space, and cost as compared to a basic standby system. All components of the system have complete operation, complete failure, only two states, and the system has multiple states depending on the state of the component. At this time, the multi-functional standby component is assumed to be in a non-operating standby state (Cold Standby) when the main component fails. In addition, the failure rate of each part follows the Weibull distribution which can be expressed as increasing type, constant type, and decreasing type according to the shape parameter. If the Weibull distribution is used, it can be applied to various environments in a realistic manner compared to the exponential distribution that can be reflected only when the failure rate is constant. In this paper, Markov chain analysis method is applied to evaluate the reliability of multi-functional multi-state standby system. In order to verify the validity of the reliability, a graph was generated by applying arbitrary shape parameters and scale parameter values through Excel. In order to analyze the effect of multi-functional multi-state standby system using Weibull distribution, we compared the reliability based on the most basic parallel system and the standby system.