• Title/Summary/Keyword: local probability

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Vessel traffic geometric probability approaches with AIS data in active shipping lane for subsea pipeline quantitative risk assessment against third-party impact

  • Tanujaya, Vincent Alvin;Tawekal, Ricky Lukman;Ilman, Eko Charnius
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.267-284
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    • 2022
  • A subsea pipeline designed across active shipping lane prones to failure against external interferences such as anchorage activities, hence risk assessment is essential. It requires quantifying the geometric probability derived from ship traffic distribution based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The actual probability density function from historical vessel traffic data is ideal, as for rapid assessment, conceptual study, when the AIS data is scarce or when the local vessels traffic are not utilised with AIS. Recommended practices suggest the probability distribution is assumed as a single peak Gaussian. This study compares several fitted Gaussian distributions and Monte Carlo simulation based on actual ship traffic data in main ship direction in an active shipping lane across a subsea pipeline. The results shows that a Gaussian distribution with five peaks is required to represent the ship traffic data, providing an error of 0.23%, while a single peak Gaussian distribution and the Monte Carlo simulation with one hundred million realisation provide an error of 1.32% and 0.79% respectively. Thus, it can be concluded that the multi-peak Gaussian distribution can represent the actual ship traffic distribution in the main direction, but it is less representative for ship traffic distribution in other direction. The geometric probability is utilised in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for subsea pipeline against vessel anchor dropping and dragging and vessel sinking.

Rate of Convergence of the Integral Type Lupas-Bézier Operators

  • ZENG, XIAO-MING;TAO, WANG
    • Kyungpook Mathematical Journal
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.593-604
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    • 2003
  • In this paper we introduce the integral type Lupas-$B{\acute{e}}zier$ operator $\tilde{B}_{n,{\alpha}}$, which is a new approximation operator of probabilistic type. We study the rate of pointwise convergence of the operators $\tilde{B}_{n,{\alpha}}$ for local bounded functions and get an asymptotically estimate by means of some methods and techniques of probability theory.

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GAUSSIAN CHAOS AND LOCAL H$\ddot{O}LDER$ PROPERTY OF STOCHASTIC INTEGRAL PROCESS

  • KIM JOO-MOK
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.20 no.1_2
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    • pp.585-594
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    • 2006
  • We consider a stochastic integral process represented by multiple Ito-Wiener integrals. We derive gaussian chaos which has some shift continuous function. We get continuity property of self-similar process represented by multiple integrals and finally we show that $Y_{H_t}$ (t) is continuous in t with probability one for Holder function $H_t$ of exponent $\beta$.

Estimation of Density via Local Polynomial Tegression

  • Park, B. U.;Kim, W. C.;J. Huh;J. W. Jeon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 1998
  • A method of estimating probability density using regression tools is presented here. It is based on equal-length binning and locally weighted approximate likelihood for bin counts. The method is particularly useful for densities with bounded supports, where it automatically corrects edge effects without using boundary kernels.

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Using Simulation for a Didactic Transposition of Probability (시뮬레이션을 활용한 확률 지식의 교수학적 변환)

  • Shin, Bo-Mi;Lee, Kyung-Hwa
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.25-50
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    • 2008
  • Several previous studies suggested that simulation could be a main didactic instrument in overcoming misconception and probability modeling. However, they have not described enough how to reorganize probability knowledge as knowledge to be taught in a curriculum using simulation. The purpose of this study is to identify the theoretical knowledge needed in developing a didactic transposition method of probability knowledge using simulation. The theoretical knowledge needed to develop this method was specified as follows : pseudo-contextualization/pseudo-personalization, and pseudo-decontextualization/pseudo-deper-sonalization according to the introductory purposes of simulation. As a result, this study developed a local instruction theory and an hypothetical learning trajectory for overcoming misconceptions and modeling situations respectively. This study summed up educational intention, which was designed to transform probability knowledge into didactic according to the introductory purposes of simulation, into curriculum, lesson plans, and experimental teaching materials to present didactic ideas for new probability education programs in the high school probability curriculum.

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Performance Analysis of Integrated Data/Voice Multi-Rate Circuit-Switched Networks (음성 및 데이터 집적 다속도 회선 교환망 성능 분석)

  • Jong Kyu Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.28A no.12
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1991
  • Multi rate circuit switching ISDN which assumes a star topology consisting of LANs(local area networks) interconnected through a backbone MAN (metropolitan area network) is considered. The stations are classified into two categories data and voice stations they are characterized by different arrival rate and session-length (holding time) statistics. We first model the data and voice terminals as finite-source stations and derive analytically exact expressions for the end-to-end blocking probabilities. For more exact evaluation, these probabilities are calculated in terms of three components:circuit blocking probability, destination busy probability and concurrent busy probability. For large size systems, we develop an develop an iterative algorithm that provides a computationally efficient and fast method for the calculation of the end-to-end blocking probabilities.

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Characteristics of wind loads on roof cladding and fixings

  • Ginger, J.D.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2001
  • Analysis of pressures measured on the roof of the full-scale Texas Tech building and a 1/50 scale model of a typical house showed that the pressure fluctuations on cladding fastener and cladding-truss connection tributary areas have similar characteristics. The probability density functions of pressure fluctuations on these areas are negatively skewed from Gaussian, with pressure peak factors less than -5.5. The fluctuating pressure energy is mostly contained at full-scale frequencies of up to about 0.6 Hz. Pressure coefficients, $C_p$ and local pressure factors, $K_l$ given in the Australian wind load standard AS1170.2 are generally satisfactory, except for some small cladding fastener tributary areas near the edges.

Defect Detection algorithm of TFT-LCD Polarizing Film using the Probability Density Function based on Cluster Characteristic (TFT-LCD 영상에서 결함 군집도 특성 기반의 확률밀도함수를 이용한 결함 검출 알고리즘)

  • Gu, Eunhye;Park, Kil-Houm
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.633-641
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    • 2016
  • Automatic defect inspection system is composed of the step in the pre-processing, defect candidate detection, and classification. Polarizing films containing various defects should be minimized over-detection for classifying defect blobs. In this paper, we propose a defect detection algorithm using a skewness of histogram for minimizing over-detection. In order to detect up defects with similar to background pixel, we are used the characteristics of the local region. And the real defect pixels are distinguished from the noise using the probability density function. Experimental results demonstrated the minimized over-detection by utilizing the artificial images and real polarizing film images.

Reliability Analysis of Stochastic Finite Element Model by the Adaptive Importance Sampling Technique (적응적 중요표본추출법에 의한 확률유한요소모형의 신뢰성분석)

  • 김상효;나경웅
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.351-358
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    • 1999
  • The structural responses of underground structures are examined in probability by using the elasto-plastic stochastic finite element method in which the spatial distributions of material properties are assumed to be stochastic fields. In addition, the adaptive importance sampling method using the response surface technique is used to improve simulation efficiency. The method is found to provide appropriate information although the nonlinear Limit State involves a large number of basic random variables and the failure probability is small. The probability of plastic local failures around an excavated area is effectively evaluated and the reliability for the limit displacement of the ground is investigated. It is demonstrated that the adaptive importance sampling method can be very efficiently used to evaluate the reliability of a large scale stochastic finite element model, such as the underground structures located in the multi-layered ground.

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Effective Sonar Grid map Matching for Topological Place Recognition (위상학적 공간 인식을 위한 효과적인 초음파 격자 지도 매칭 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Jin-Woo;Choi, Min-Yong;Chung, Wan-Kyun
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.247-254
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    • 2011
  • This paper presents a method of sonar grid map matching for topological place recognition. The proposed method provides an effective rotation invariant grid map matching method. A template grid map is firstly extracted for reliable grid map matching by filtering noisy data in local grid map. Using the template grid map, the rotation invariant grid map matching is performed by Ring Projection Transformation. The rotation invariant grid map matching selects candidate locations which are regarded as representative point for each node. Then, the topological place recognition is achieved by calculating matching probability based on the candidate location. The matching probability is acquired by using both rotation invariant grid map matching and the matching of distance and angle vectors. The proposed method can provide a successful matching even under rotation changes between grid maps. Moreover, the matching probability gives a reliable result for topological place recognition. The performance of the proposed method is verified by experimental results in a real home environment.