• 제목/요약/키워드: hazard rate function

검색결과 77건 처리시간 0.031초

Bayesian Method for Sequential Preventive Maintenance Policy

  • Kim Hee Soo;Kwon Young Sub;Park Dong Ho
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신뢰성학회 2005년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to determine the adaptive preventive maintenance(PM) policy for a general sequential imperfect PM model proposed by Lin, Zuo and Yam(2000) that PM not only reduces the effective age of the system but also changes the hazard rate function. Assuming that the failure times follow Weibull distribution, we adopt a Bayesian approach to update unknown parameters and determine the Bayesian optimal sequential PM policies. Finally, numerical examples of the optimal adaptive PM policy are presented for illustrative purposes.

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A Study on the Application of Survival Analysis to Terminated Life Insurance Polices

  • Kang, Jung-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.237-253
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    • 2005
  • In Korea, the volume of insurance industry has been increased rapidly with helping the economic growth, the increment of GNP and derive of public welfare policy. But the other side of the volume increment, the life insurers have some problems, such as the high rate of turnover, lapses and surrenders, in processing of acquiring more insurance contracts. The object of this paper is the analysis of the causes and properties of the high rate of turnover, lapses and surrenders using statistical survival model. Also we hope that the insurers will use the results of analysis to reduce the rates.

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공공연구기관의 기술이전모형연구와 그 정책적 함의 발표분야 : 기술경제, 기술정책분야(기술이전)

  • 류태규;박종복;이정동;김태유
    • 기술경영경제학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 기술경영경제학회 2002년도 제21회 하계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.203-223
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    • 2002
  • In Korea, Public Research Institutes(PRIs) are today faced with the challenges of creating values by transferring technologies in store within themselves to private commercial sector. Recently, It has been increasingly pointed out that PRIs have the poor capability to valuate prospective technologies of their own, and don't run the reasonable technology transfer mechanism in terms of establishing royalty rate and initial payment, designing remuneration to inventor, screening qualified licensee, and controlling the moral hazard. This paper develops an enhanced mathematical model of technology transfer from a PRI to a private industrial firm with including the inventor as an important player. The model is made up of the main part which derives the optimal royalty rate by maximizing the social welfare and sharing risk fairly between players and some sub-parts. The one sub-part is a principal-agent model which makes it possible to control the moral hazard of inventors, and the other part provides the criteria for screening appropriate licensees. Moreover, the moral hazard between inventor and licensee is addressed by introducing the cost reduction function of efforts exerted by them. The model is able to relate the optimal royalty rate to the parameters that represent the environments under which the concerned parties operate. Especially, the ratio of initial payment over the value of transferred technology is calculated from the binding relation with the royalty rate. The paper shows that the model suggested here is more enhanced by comparing with the existing technology transfer mechanism. Finally, the paper allows us to find better strategies for effective technology transfer and further develop more sophisticated technology transfer model.

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잠재적 화재.폭발 위험 지역 작업용 녹전환형 중방식 코팅제의 특성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Properties of the Heavy Duty Rust-Converting Agent used in the Potential Hazard Areas of Fire & Explosion)

  • 강영구
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.102-111
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    • 1998
  • This study was concerned with the development of a heavy duty rust-converting agent, the function of which is to form metal complex coatings, containing vinyl halide-acrylic terpolymer emulsion, defoamer, emulsifying agent, glass flakes, chelating agent such as gallotannic acid, gallic acid, and pyrogallic acid, and other additives. The resulted emulsion products(Sample No.1~No.5) were characterized through test either in the forms of emulsions, which include Viscosity, Penetration rate, Acidity and Film drying rate test, or in the forms of coated layer on rusty steel substrates by FT-IR, which include hardness, gloss, salt spray, adhesion and flame retardant test. The test results are as follows ; Penetration rate(0.1~0.4 mm/min), Solid content(70%), Acidity (pH 1.8~2.0), Specific gravity(1.30~1.35), Film drying rate(108min, RH 40% ; 150min, RH 80%), Gloss(83~92, incident angle $60^{\circ}$; 88~97, incident angle $85^{\circ}$), Pencil hardness(4H~5H), Adhesion (100/100), Salt spray test(>720Hr), LOI(%) value(38%), Vertical burning test(UL 94-v-l). According to the various performance of specimens show above, the evaluation of the availability of this heavy duty rust-converting agent can be concluded that all the samples(No.1~No.5) are capable of being used in the field of chemical plant and in the hazard areas of fire and explosion potential. It was observed that the properties of sample No.2, especially gloss and hardness, were much better than that of the other samples.

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모수적과 비모수적 위험률 변화점 통계량 비교 (Comparison of parametric and nonparametric hazard change-point estimators)

  • 김재희;이시은
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.1253-1262
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    • 2016
  • 위험률에 변화점이 존재할 경우 위험률 변화점에 대한 추정 정확한 모수 추정을 위해 매우 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 한 개 위험률 변화점이 존재하는 경우 위험률의 변화점 추정량에 대한 비교 연구를 수행하였다. 우도함수에 기반한 모수적 방법인 Matthews와 Farewell (1982) 위험률 변화점 추정량과 Nelson-Aalen 누적 위험률에 기반한 비모수적 방법의 Zhang 등 (2014) 위험률 변화점 통계량을 고찰하여 특성을 파악하였다. 모의실험에서 지수분포를 따르는 생존데이터에 대해 위험률 변화점이 한 개 있는 경우 중도절단이 없는 경우와 중도절단이 있는 경위험률 추정량의 능력을 평균제곱오차를 계산하여 비교하였다. 실제 데이터에 대한 적용으로 백혈병 생존데이터와 원발성 담백증 경화 생존데이터에 대해 위험률 변화점을 추정하고 비교해 보았다.

다항 위험함수에 근거한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구 (The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on polynomial hazard function)

  • 김희철;신현철
    • 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2015
  • 소프트웨어 디버깅과정에서 오류의 발생 시간에 기초한 많은 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형이 이미 연구되었다. 유한고장모형과 비동질적인 포아송과정을 이용하면 소프트웨어의 신뢰성 모형에 대한 모수 추정을 가능하게 한다. 소프트웨어를 사용자에게 인도하는 경우 인도시기를 결정할 때 조건부 고장률은 중요한 변수가 된다. 이러한 유한 고장 모형은 실제 다양한 상황에서 사용될 수 있다. 특성화 문제, 이상치의 검출, 선형 추정, 시스템 신뢰성 연구, 수명 시험, 생존 분석, 데이터 압축 및 많은 다른 분야의 연구에서 이들의 사용은 많은 연구에서 볼 수 있다. 통계 공정 관리(SPC)는 소프트웨어 오류의 예측을 모니터링 함으로써 소프트웨어의 신뢰성의 향상에 크게 기여할 수 있다. 관리도는 널리 소프트웨어 업계에서 소프트웨어 품질관리에 사용된다. 본 논문에서는 NHPP와 다항 위험 함수의 평균값을 기초한 관리 메카니즘을 제시하였다.

LCC Optimization for Reinforced Concrete Structures under Seismic Hazards

  • Park, Soon-Kyu
    • KCI Concrete Journal
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2001
  • A simple expected damage cost model is developed and a systematic approach to evaluate the economic effects of seismic hazards to reinforced concrete structures is presented. An expected damage cost function during a specific lifetime is modeled by a Poisson's process with uniform continuous cash flow assumption. It is possible that the proposed method can decouple the damage cost effect from random earthquake events. Thus, expected damage cost function can be formulated as a combination of three independent terms; a present worth factor of Poisson's process, a damage cost interpolation function and a mean occurrence rate of earthquake intensity. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by a comparative study of LCC evaluations with the previous study.

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New generalized inverse Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

  • Khan, Muhammad Shuaib;King, Robert
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 2016
  • This paper introduces the four parameter new generalized inverse Weibull distribution and investigates the potential usefulness of this model with application to reliability data from engineering studies. The new extended model has upside-down hazard rate function and provides an alternative to existing lifetime distributions. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived that include explicit expressions for the moments, moment generating function, quantile function and the moments of order statistics. The estimation of model parameters are performed by the method of maximum likelihood and evaluate the performance of maximum likelihood estimation using simulation.

BIVARIATE DYNAMIC CUMULATIVE RESIDUAL TSALLIS ENTROPY

  • SATI, MADAN MOHAN;SINGH, HARINDER
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • 제35권1_2호
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2017
  • Recently, Sati and Gupta (2015) proposed two measures of uncertainty based on non-extensive entropy, called the dynamic cumulative residual Tsallis entropy (DCRTE) and the empirical cumulative Tsallis entropy. In the present paper, we extend the definition of DCRTE into the bivariate setup and study its properties in the context of reliability theory. We also define a new class of life distributions based on bivariate DCRTE.

고장데이터를 이용한 대용량 전력설비 통계적 수명분석 (Statistical Lifetime Analysis for Large Electric Power Equipments using Failure Data)

  • 김정태
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권11호
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    • pp.1605-1611
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the characteristic lifetime of power facilities such as power transformers and GIS were investigated as the basis of power facility asset management. It is difficult to obtain the operation and failure data of the facilities in Korea. Therefore, the number of failures of the electric power facilities was calculated from the operation data and hazard rate shown in the overseas literatures, and the statistical analysis was performed using the Weibull distribution function. As a result of extracting and analyzing the data of the UK National Grid for power transformers, the characteristic lifetime (scale parameter) of 116.45 years was considered to be a very appropriate value for power transformer management and can be used as a comparative data of the analysis of the domestic transformers. As for the GIS, based on the Bays and Bay-Years data and the hazard rate according to the operation years of the 123kV GIS in Germany, it is found out that the characteristic lifetime of GIS is not so meaningful. It is necessary to decide a maintenance strategy and lifetime expectancy considering the characteristics of the design, materials and manufacturing process of GIS.