• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.22-22
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• 2017

일반적으로 기후변화 연구에서는 미래 기후변화 전망에 존재하는 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 다양한 Global Circulation Model (GCM) 시나리오를 고려하는 앙상블기법을 사용한다. 하지만 모든 GCM 시나리오들을 전부 사용하는 것은 많은 계산시간과 노력을 요구하기 때문에 비효율 적이다. 따라서 최소한의 시나리오로 최대한의 기후변화 변동성을 포함할 수 있는 대표 시나리오 선정 및 적용이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 군집분석 기법 중에 하나인 KKZ 알고리즘을 활용하여 지역 수문 영향분석을 위한 대표 시나리오를 선정하였다. 먼저 27개 ETCCDI 기상변수들로부터 대표 기상변수들을 선정하고 미래 기간에 대한 상대변화를 90%이상 포함시키는 대표 시나리오를 선정하였다. KKZ 알고리즘을 활용할 경우 전체 26개 GCM에 대해 우선순위별로 시나리오를 하나씩 증가시켜 선정하기 때문에, 시나리오를 하나씩 증가시킬 때 마다 미래 기후변동성이 어느 정도 표현되는지 분석하였다. 그리고 선정된 GCM 시나리오들을 금강유역을 대상으로 수문 모형에 입력하여 미래 수문영향 분석을 실시하였다. 이를 통해 대표 시나리오를 통해 전망한 미래 수문변화량이 전체 상대변화량 대비 어느 정도의 변화량을 포함시킬 수 있는지 분석하였다. 그리고 홍수 및 가뭄과 관계된 기상변수 그룹을 각각 선정 한 후 이를 바탕으로 새롭게 대표 시나리오들을 선정하였다. 이를 바탕으로 수문 영향분석을 실시하여 각각의 시나리오들이 홍수 및 가뭄전망 상대변화량을 얼마나 잘 포함시킬 수 있는지도 분석하였다. 이와 같이, 본 연구는 적은 수의 대표 시나리오의 선정을 통해 미래 기후변화 변동성을 최대한 포함시킬 수 있음으로서 불필요한 수문모의 시간을 절약할 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.135-145
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• 2006

The surface temperature and hydrological budget for the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulatedwith an atmospheric general circulation model of NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corespondingto a grid cel size of roughly 75 km. LGM simulations were forced with the reconstructed CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, sea ice distribution, ice sheet topography, reduced CO2, and orbital parameters.oC in winter, 5.6oC in sumer,and 6oC annual-mean. The decrease of surface temperature leads to a weakening of the hydrologicalcycle. Global-mean precipitation decreases by about 14% in winter, 17% in summer, and 13% annually.However, some regions such as the U.S., southern Europe, northern and eastern Africa, and the SouthAmerica appear to be weter in the LGM winter and Canada and the Midle East are weter in sumer. model captures detailed climate features over land.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1057-1066
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• 2018

Climate change has been influenced on extreme precipitation events, which are major driving causes of flooding. Especially, most of extreme water-related disasters in Korea occur from floods induced by extreme precipitation events. However, future climate change scenarios simulated with Global Circulation Models (GCMs) or Reigonal Climate Models (RCMs) are limited to the application on medium and small size rivers and urban watersheds due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Therefore, the current study introduces the state-of-the-art approaches and procedures of statistical downscaling techniques to resolve this limitation It is expected that the temporally downscaled data allows frequency analysis for the future precipitation and estimating the design precipitation for disaster prevention.

• STI Policy Review
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.99-132
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• 2018

Developing countries face numerous challenges in the process of building science, technology, and research capacity; in particular, the formation and accumulation of skilled S&T workforce. The lack of organized and sustainable higher education options (Master and Doctoral programs), nonexistent or low-quality academic programs, and the absence of research-oriented study options are some of the strong contributors for talented students to emigrate to developed countries. At the same time, the consolidation of a global knowledge economy, the internationalization of higher education, and the competition to attract foreign talent in industrialized countries present challenges for underdeveloped nations to retain their already scarce skilled human resources. In this context, student mobility has been used as a policy mechanism to cope with S&T workforce shortages in S&T laggard nations. It has also enabled opportunities for international cooperation to play a key role. While significant literature has been devoted to studying the gains of developed nations with the arrival and potential migration of the mobilized students, few scholarly inquiries have addressed the benefits and losses experienced by their countries of origin. More importantly, limited research can be found on policy options and policy implications for developing countries to deal with the dilemmas presented by the brain-drain/brain-circulation debate. The goal of this article is to study empirical evidence of an international cooperation initiative for student mobility between the Republic of Korea and Guatemala (implemented during 2009-2015). The paper analyzes this particular international cooperation experience from the perspective of the different actors involved and attempts to draw policy implications and policy options for developing countries to deal with potential risks and gains derived from international mobility for their S&T capacity building.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.511-519
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• 2022

Given the significant social and economic impact caused by heat waves, there is a pressing need to predict them with high accuracy and reliability. In this study, we analyzed the real-time forecast data from six models constituting the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project, to elucidate the key mechanisms contributing to the prediction of the recent record-breaking Korean heat wave event in 2018. Weekly anomalies were first obtained by subtracting the 2017-2020 mean values for both S2S model simulations and observations. By comparing four Korean heat-wave-related indices from S2S models to the observed data, we aimed to identify key climate processes affecting prediction accuracy. The results showed that superior performance at predicting the 2018 Korean heat wave was achieved when the model showed better prediction performance for the anomalous anticyclonic activity in the upper troposphere of Eastern Europe and the cyclonic circulation over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region compared to the observed data. Furthermore, the development of upper-tropospheric anticyclones in Eastern Europe was closely related to global warming and the occurrence of La Niña events. The anomalous cyclonic flow in the WNP region coincided with enhancements in Madden-Julian oscillation phases 4-6. Our results indicate that, for the accurate prediction of heat waves, such as the 2018 Korean heat wave, it is imperative for the S2S models to realistically reproduce the variabilities over the Eastern Europe and WNP regions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.314-314
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• 2023

Extreme climate events can have a large impact on human life by hampering social, environmental, and economic development. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the widely used numerical models to understand the anticipated future climate change. However, different GCMs can project different future climates due to structural differences, varying initial boundary conditions and assumptions about the physical phenomena. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach can improve the uncertainties associated with the different GCM outcomes. In this study, a comprehensive rating metric was used to select the best-performing GCMs out of 11 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 GCMs, according to their skills in terms of four temporal and five spatial performance indices, in replicating the 21 extreme climate indices during the baseline (1975-2017) in South Korea. The MME data were derived by averaging the simulations from all selected GCMs and three top-ranked GCMs. The random forest (RF) algorithm was also used to derive the MME data from the three top-ranked GCMs. The RF-derived MME data of the three top-ranked GCMs showed the highest performance in simulating the baseline extreme climate which was subsequently used to project the future extreme climate indices under both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) and the socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios (SSP). The extreme cold and warming indices had declining and increasing trends, respectively, and most extreme precipitation indices had increasing trends over the period 2031-2100. Compared to all scenarios, RCP8.5 showed drastic changes in future extreme climate indices. The coasts in the east, south and west had stronger warming than the rest of the country, while mountain areas in the north experienced more extreme cold. While extreme cold climatology gradually declined from north to south, extreme warming climatology continuously grew from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions. The results showed that the socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.887-908
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• 2022

In order to confirm the effects of economic growth and environmental improvement, this study analyzed the existence of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for SO₂ emission, greenhouse gas emission, and waste generation in OECD countries. As a result of panel analysis, the shape of the EKC were different depending on environmental pollutants. SO₂ generated peaks relatively early in economic growth, and the peak of greenhouse gas emissions was showed in higher income level. But both emissions showed the a complete inverted U-shaped curve decreasing after the peak. On the other hand, for waste, there was no environmental Kuznets curve that could confirm the peak. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is difficult to expect a voluntary reduction in all environmental pollutants, and additional global joint efforts are needed to pass the peak. In particular, since waste has a greater impact on population density and industrial structure than income level, additional policy efforts are needed to reduce generation and create a resource circulation system.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.134-143
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• 2022

Objectives: Many governments have imposed-and are still imposing-mobility restrictions to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there is no consensus on whether policy-induced reductions of human mobility effectively reduce the effective reproduction number (Rt) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Several studies based on country-restricted data reported conflicting trends in the change of the SARS-CoV-2 Rt following mobility restrictions. The objective of this study was to examine, at the global scale, the existence of regional specificities in the correlations between Rt and human mobility. Methods: We computed the Rt of SARS-CoV-2 using data on worldwide infection cases reported by the Johns Hopkins University, and analyzed the correlation between Rt and mobility indicators from the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports in 125 countries, as well as states/regions within the United States, using the Pearson correlation test, linear modeling, and quadratic modeling. Results: The correlation analysis identified countries where Rt negatively correlated with residential mobility, as expected by policymakers, but also countries where Rt positively correlated with residential mobility and countries with more complex correlation patterns. The correlations between Rt and residential mobility were non-linear in many countries, indicating an optimal level above which increasing residential mobility is counterproductive. Conclusions: Our results indicate that, in order to effectively reduce viral circulation, mobility restriction measures must be tailored by region, considering local cultural determinants and social behaviors. We believe that our results have the potential to guide differential refinement of mobility restriction policies at a country/regional resolution.

• Korean Circulation Journal
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.499-518
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• 2023

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), including coronary artery disease, stroke, heart failure, and hypertension, are the global leading causes of death, accounting for more than 30% of deaths worldwide. Although the risk factors of CVDs have been well understood and various treatment and preventive measures have been established, the mortality rate and the financial burden of CVDs are expected to grow exponentially over time due to the changes in lifestyles and increasing life expectancies of the present generation. Recent advancements in metagenomics and metabolomics analysis have identified gut microbiome and its associated metabolites as potential risk factors for CVDs, suggesting the possibility of developing more effective novel therapeutic strategies against CVD. In addition, increasing evidence has demonstrated the alterations in the ratio of Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes and the imbalance of microbial-dependent metabolites, including short-chain fatty acids and trimethylamine N-oxide, play a crucial role in the pathogenesis of CVD. However, the exact mechanism of action remains undefined to this day. In this review, we focus on the compositional changes in the gut microbiome and its related metabolites in various CVDs. Moreover, the potential treatment and preventive strategies targeting the gut microbiome and its metabolites are discussed.