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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Application of the Large-scale Climate Ensemble Simulations to Analysis on Changes of Precipitation Trend Caused by Global Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 강수 특성 변화 분석을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료 적용

  • Kim, Youngkyu (Civil Engineering, Department of Chungnam National University) ;
  • Son, Minwoo (Civil Engineering, Department of Chungnam National University)
  • 김영규 (충남대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 손민우 (충남대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2021.10.27
  • Accepted : 2022.01.19
  • Published : 2022.03.31
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Abstract

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2022년도 정부(교육부)의 재원으로 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 기초연구사업임(No. 2021R1I1A3060354).

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